TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1892
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-25-23 07:16 PM - Post#352537
In response to JDP
While I’m sure the Princeton women would rather be playing the final regular season game in Jadwin, if they can beat a very tough Penn team at the Palestra, that will give them a NET advantage over the Lions, who play 7th placed Cornell at home. Strength of opponent and location of the games will both help the Tigers’ NET, assuming they can beat the Quakers.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-25-23 10:08 PM - Post#352553
In response to TigerFan
https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/statu s/1067063...
The calculus of the NET rating is a bit beyond me ... And while I directionally ageee that Princeton would get a bigger boost from winning on the road against a higher NET rated opponent than Columbia would at home vs. a lower NET rated opponent ... I just don't know if at this late point in the season, one set of game can with both Columbia & Princeton winning can cause that large a swing ... Illinois just dropped 11, that is the largest swing in the last day and they were blown out by an equally rated opponent ...
My best guess is that Princeton would have to beat Penn by 10+ (10 is the max in scoring differential) and Columbia would have to win by less than 5 to perhaps cause the Tigers to go up +6 and the Lions to drop by 5 or more ...
Columbia does have a slight advantage as they play on Sat and will have a sense as to how well they need to play to potential overtake Princeton in NET raking, if the Tigers overtake the Lions after Fri night
On an RPI basis, Princeton is projected to overtake Columbia ,,, but that is a different methodology
Edited by JDP on 02-25-23 10:16 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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02-26-23 12:16 AM - Post#352575
In response to JDP
I agree... Princeton would close the gap if both teams won, but it would take a 10+ point win over Penn and a nail-biter in Levien for the Tigers to have any shot at passing the Lions in the NET rankings.
While the Tigers have the edge in the head-to-head matchup (better point differential), Columbia simply has too many quality wins on the road, which helps their "Team Value Index"... six to be exact against Top 100 NET teams. Princeton has two (three if you count the close loss vs UConn).
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
03-04-23 04:48 PM - Post#353048
In response to JDP
Does anyone know if the Ivy League has an official date / time of when the playoff seedings are set?
Reason I ask, is that with Columbia & Princeton looking to go to NET Ratings as a tiebreaker, it should not be today.
Princeton increased +5 with the win over Penn and we know a fall of 4 or more is possible with #35 Columbia struggling with #259 Cornell ... #41 Princeton could overtake
But the Net Rankings will not update until tomorrow ... so Monday would seem like the logical time ...
If Columbia wins ... 2 team tie for 1st ... will go to Net Tiebreaker - (at this point, could see the Tigers overtaking ... if the Ivies wait till Monday)
1/2 Columbia Princeton
3 Penn
4 Harvard
If Columbia loses & Harvard wins
1. Princeton
2. Columbia
3. Harvard (1-1 vs Princeton)
4. Penn
If Columbia loses & Harvard loses
1. Princeton
2. Columbia
3. Penn
4. Harvard
Edited by JDP on 03-04-23 04:49 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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Re: WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
03-04-23 09:54 PM - Post#353081
In response to JDP
If Columbia loses & Harvard wins
1. Princeton
2. Columbia
3. Harvard (1-1 vs Princeton)
4. Penn
In a post from a couple weeks ago, you noted that Penn would get the #3 seed in this scenario since Harvard and Penn both finished 1-3 vs Columbia/Princeton... the next tie-breaker would be their record vs 5th place Yale.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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03-05-23 09:51 AM - Post#353134
In response to PeteD
Columbia fell 10 spots in the NET ranking, so Princeton gets the #1 seed, and deservedly so… they’re the better team right now.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-05-23 10:58 PM - Post#353243
In response to JDP
Perhaps this was clear to all but myself. But as this is the first time in 12 samples where the full understanding of the 2nd tie breaker made be evident ... in why Harvard is the 3rd seed - as they are 1-1 vs. #1 Ivy Madness seed Princeton and Penn is 0-2
A better formulation of the second tiebreaker is:
If a tie still exists, the tie will be broken by comparing each team’s record against:
(i) the higher Ivy Madness seeds outside of the tie and
only if a tie still exists
(ii) then continuing through the remaining lower regular season league standings (if there is a group of tied teams in the regular season standing, use each team’s record against the group rather than the individual teams) if necessary.
For Columbia & Princeton and the 1st seed, this meant looking at Harvard & Penn combined while trying to determining the #1 seed
For Harvard & Penn and the 3rd seed, this meant first looking at the record vs. Princeton as the #1 Ivy Madness seed.
https://ivyleague.com/sports/2022/2/17/MBB_ 0217222...
In the case of a two-way tie between teams in the final standings, the following process will be used until all ties are broken and the seeding process is completed (ties will be broken in rank order beginning with the highest seed):
1. Head-to-head competition – The higher seed will go to the team that has won the most League contests played against the other teams involved in the tie.
2. If a tie still exists, the tie will be broken by comparing each team’s record against the highest seed outside of the tie and continuing through the full league standings (if there is a group of tied teams, use each team’s record against the group rather than the individual teams) if necessary.
3. If a tie still exists, an average of the most recent ratings indices identified in advance by the coaches (e.g., Men: Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI and NCAA Net/Women: NCAA Net) will be utilized to determine the higher seed.
4. If a tie still persists, a draw will be conducted by the Executive Director
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Tiger84
Senior
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Reg: 03-06-17
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03-06-23 01:01 PM - Post#353276
In response to JDP
So if I understand all this Madness(tm) correctly, had Princeton not leapfrogged Columbia in NET, then the 3-4 seeds would have been flip-flopped.
So irrespective of the NET rankings, Princeton was going to play Penn and Columbia would play Harvard no matter what NET had done. So all that was at stake was who gets 2-1/2 extra hours rest Friday night and who gets to wear home uniforms Saturday.
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Albert08
Masters Student
Posts: 574
Reg: 08-21-10
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03-06-23 01:11 PM - Post#353279
In response to Tiger84
To break the tie between Harvard and Penn, it was who had the better record against the higher NET ranked team. When Columbia was the higher NET ranked team (for several weeks up until this past weekend), Penn won the tiebreaker, having beaten Columbia at the Palestra, while Harvard lost twice. But, when Princeton became the higher NET ranked team on Sunday morning, then Harvard won the tiebreaker having beaten Princeton at Lavietes, while Penn lost twice. (I think that's it, but I'm not 100% sure).
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-06-23 11:48 PM - Post#353330
In response to Albert08
My original incorrect read of the rule was that one would look only to regular season standings all cases and not Ivy Madness seedings. So then the Harvard-Penn tie would have been broken by the Yale results and Penn would have been third.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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03-07-23 12:46 AM - Post#353333
In response to Tiger84
So if I understand all this Madness(tm) correctly, had Princeton not leapfrogged Columbia in NET, then the 3-4 seeds would have been flip-flopped.
So irrespective of the NET rankings, Princeton was going to play Penn and Columbia would play Harvard no matter what NET had done. So all that was at stake was who gets 2-1/2 extra hours rest Friday night and who gets to wear home uniforms Saturday.
That’s correct. After Princeton won on Friday night, I believe the only way a Penn/Columbia semi-final was possible is if Harvard lost on Saturday to Dartmouth.
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