LocalTiger
Masters Student
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Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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01-29-23 03:27 PM - Post#350480
If it ended now, Ivy Madness would owe Princeton, Cornell,
Dartmouth and Yale. Obviously, Dartmouth is the surprise.
Do people believe they will stick? They have two All Ivy
quality players and a freshman who can score. All of that
and a chip on their shoulder because people assume they
will fade makes them dangerous in the second half.
What do others think?
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 04:20 PM - Post#350482
In response to LocalTiger
KenPom thinks the four will be Princeton, Cornell, Yale, and either Penn or Harvard. Luke Benz has Princeton, Cornell, and Yale as locks (and in that order), then gives Harvard and Penn the inside tracks for the last spot.
I think Dartmouth absolutely has a reasonable path to the 4 seed, and I'll be interested to see how they handle the second loop through the league. They'll probably need to beat at least one of Yale, Princeton, or Harvard at home to make it. That's possible, but they'll probably be underdogs in each one.
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palestra38
Professor
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 07:58 PM - Post#350487
In response to iogyhufi
The only team I would characterize as a "lock" is Princeton. Yale still has to play @ Harvard and Dartmouth and Penn and Princeton and Brown. It is conceivable they lose all of those games. The schedule is skewed this year and Yale has played almost all of its home games (with one of the 2 they have left against Cornell). Cornell plays the P's this weekend on the road and if they split, they're in great shape. But drop both and they are on the cusp. Princeton has all those home games left and I don't see them dropping 3 or more of them.
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penn nation
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 09:50 PM - Post#350492
In response to palestra38
Tiebreakers are likely to play a significant role this year. Penn's lack of a current win against Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth or Yale might cost it a chance in a tiebreaking scenario.
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palestra38
Professor
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 11:08 PM - Post#350494
In response to penn nation
Maybe, but if Penn wins the rematch, it won't lose the tiebreaker. If it loses the rematches, rematches won't matter
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 11:22 PM - Post#350495
In response to palestra38
Point taken, but for what it's worth even if you think the four non-Princeton road games are 50/50, the math would expect Yale to win two of them, and that's all they're likely to need (assuming a home win over Columbia).
Still, I won't feel comfortable until we see those two road wins actually happen.
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ToothlessTiger
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01-30-23 07:56 AM - Post#350500
In response to iogyhufi
I am bullish on Dartmouth. Cornish, Neskovic and Adelekun individually are terrific, together a real load. The Tigers did a good job against the Big Guy, who fouled out, but we're lucky to get an escape in OT. The two scorers combined for 55. With another half season to go 7 teams have a pathway. Penn always seems to get off the canvas, Yale can shoot the lights out (damn), Cornell just keeps coming, Brown has talent, Harvard has a split personality. Hope the League has all the tie breakers figured out.
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Chip Bayers
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01-30-23 02:55 PM - Post#350511
In response to ToothlessTiger
I am bullish on Dartmouth. Cornish, Neskovic and Adelekun individually are terrific, together a real load. The Tigers did a good job against the Big Guy, who fouled out, but we're lucky to get an escape in OT. The two scorers combined for 55. With another half season to go 7 teams have a pathway. Penn always seems to get off the canvas, Yale can shoot the lights out (damn), Cornell just keeps coming, Brown has talent, Harvard has a split personality. Hope the League has all the tie breakers figured out.
Can Yale really shoot the lights out, or was this just a particularly flukey three-game spree at home? Prior to the Brown game they had been one of the worst 3-pt. shooting teams in the country. In the nine-game stretch from Stony Brook on Dec. 3 through Cornell on Jan. 13 they were a collective 27% from distance, and had only one game where they shot better than 30% (against Kentucky).
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james
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01-30-23 04:51 PM - Post#350528
In response to Chip Bayers
Mahoney yes. Best yale has ever had according to Jones
Pouli yes; but has been ice cold in conference. he had power 5 offers BC of his range and his shot is art
Mbeng no; he’s a work in progress and a swing factor. But as quick as he is he is baited. God forbid he go on a streak
Jarvis yes; he was a 3 level scorer at maret and that’s why he got power 5 offers.
Kelly/knowling streaky; at best. we’re mid range players in high school and not a big sample since
Gharram yes; he’s more like mbeng than not in what he prefers to do but showed range in high school
obviously yale misses Matt cotton and no one has shown much from the bench
In sum they caught lightning in a bottle of late but that’s likely not a strength bc the consistency is concentrated and could be a bother on the road.
The one caveat is mahoney and pouli have 3 level games. The former is starting to show it and the latter is hopefully mean reverting.
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iogyhufi
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02-05-23 10:48 AM - Post#350894
In response to james
This weekend hammered some things out. Harvard and Dartmouth both needed splits or better to stay in the thick of competition for the tourney and neither could manage it. Both teams still likely control their own destinies, but things look dire.
It's entirely possible that Brown-Penn at the Palestra is do-or-die for both teams. The same matchup with the same stakes happened in both 2018-19 and 2019-20, and both times, Penn won. The Lilly-Dingle duel with everything on the line ought to be fun.
It's a two-horse race for the top seed in the ILT after Cornell got swept and Yale swept this weekend. Yale has to win at Jadwin to stay alive in the race, and they have by far the harder remaining schedule, with road games at Penn and Brown and a home game against Cornell remaining. Princeton should be the house favorite here, but Yale also hasn't lost in Jadwin since 2018, so make of that what you will.
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palestra38
Professor
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02-05-23 10:55 AM - Post#350899
In response to iogyhufi
Princeton in a walk. Any of the others can finish from 2-5. If Yale manages to win more than 3 given its ridiculous schedule, all credit goes to Jones.
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iogyhufi
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02-05-23 11:08 AM - Post#350909
In response to palestra38
Penn has about as good of a chance of finishing second as Yale does of finishing first. The tiebreaker situation is not favorable for them (they'd have to beat Yale and Princeton at Jadwin to even make it a question) and they're a game back to boot.
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penn nation
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02-05-23 11:14 AM - Post#350912
In response to iogyhufi
Penn has about as good of a chance of finishing second as Yale does of finishing first. The tiebreaker situation is not favorable for them (they'd have to beat Yale and Princeton at Jadwin to even make it a question) and they're a game back to boot.
Not comparable since Yale has already beaten Princeton. If Yale beats Princeton again, they win that tiebreaker.
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palestra38
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02-05-23 11:38 AM - Post#350917
In response to iogyhufi
That's assuming Penn finishes tied with Yale. If Penn beats Harvard (admittedly no sure thing, but Harvard is reeling to the point none of its fans are posting anymore) and Yale beats Columbia (sure thing) next week, than the final 4 for Yale are at the Ps and Brown and home against Cornell, while Penn gets 3 of 4 home games. Not impossible to imagine Penn finishing ahead, even if it loses to Princeton.
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james
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02-05-23 01:57 PM - Post#350937
In response to palestra38
Harvard could be a problem from here if they make shots.
Glad yale put a fork in it for now.
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SomeGuy
Professor
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02-05-23 02:18 PM - Post#350940
In response to palestra38
Though Yale will be favored in 4 for sure, and could even be a favorite at Princeton (kenpom suggets Yale should be favored). So kenpom says they run the table if you go game by game.
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palestra38
Professor
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02-05-23 02:41 PM - Post#350946
In response to SomeGuy
I’m talking betting lines, not KenPom
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SomeGuy
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02-05-23 03:21 PM - Post#350950
In response to palestra38
Fair enough. And while kenpom is often remarkably accurate, I’m not sure it is giving an accurate sense of how close our league is this year.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 02:41 PM - Post#351046
In response to SomeGuy
Benz is out with his odds with 5 games to go as well as analysis of the 5-4 group:
https://twitter.com/recspecs730/status/16 223060058...
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Streamers
Professor
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
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02-06-23 03:05 PM - Post#351048
In response to palestra38
I could quibble a bit with Cornell being too high and Brown too low, but I think he has it right. No matter who I look at this, for Penn, it is all about the B/Y home weekend.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 03:08 PM - Post#351049
In response to Streamers
He's basing it on simulations so take it for what it's worth.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-06-23 03:46 PM - Post#351053
In response to palestra38
It makes a lot of sense from a 10K foot view, I think. Cornell is in the driver's seat TB-wise (split with Penn, win over Brown, win over Yale) and has the easiest remaining schedule, so I buy them being a strong favorite to make the tourney. Penn and Brown's odds are more or less the same odds you'd give them to win the rematch at the Palestra, and that strikes me as reasonable too (since Brown's win over Princeton gives them a TB leg up). Penn still has an easier stretch run than Brown does, so that game may not be dispositive.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 05:23 PM - Post#351060
In response to iogyhufi
Certainly, on paper, Cornell has the easiest schedule, but its 2 away games are tough. Brown has to play at the Ps, Cornell. and Yale at home. Penn plays at Harvard, Yale, Brown and Dartmouth at the Palestra and finishing at Princeton.
I would say Brown has the toughest road there, but in this league, anything can happen. Yale also has a tough road--same as Brown but ending at Brown.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
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02-06-23 05:43 PM - Post#351062
In response to palestra38
At the moment, the closest thing to certainty is that
Yale is the easiest opponent. Both Brown and Yale
have that game left, which is a big advantage.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 442
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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02-06-23 05:44 PM - Post#351063
In response to LocalTiger
Sorry, I meant Columbia is easiest.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts: 341
Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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02-06-23 07:27 PM - Post#351067
In response to LocalTiger
If 8-6 gets it done the Tigers can punch their ticket Saturday
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IvyBballFan
Masters Student
Posts: 479
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Loc: Central Florida
Reg: 11-19-09
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02-07-23 05:36 PM - Post#351125
In response to palestra38
Certainly, on paper, Cornell has the easiest schedule, but its 2 away games are tough.
The Big Red's game at Brown Saturday is very big for both teams' tournament hopes.
#2 scorer Nazir Williams has missed the last two weekends. Without him, Cornell struggled to beat Brown at Newman Arena ten days ago. Getting a healthy Williams back for the game at the Pizz would really help Cornell.
With the unpredictability of the season's ups and downs for Dartmouth and Harvard, Cornell winning all three of their remaining home games is by no means a given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6416
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-08-23 12:54 AM - Post#351151
In response to IvyBballFan
I’m no doctor, but on Saturday Williams didn’t look like he would be ready for this week. He was moving very gingerly out there.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 442
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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02-10-23 01:08 PM - Post#351276
In response to SomeGuy
ESPN has Brown a more likely winner than Penn this weekend.
Surprising.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-10-23 01:35 PM - Post#351279
In response to LocalTiger
Brown is playing at home. Not at all surprising.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6416
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-11-23 05:12 PM - Post#351368
In response to SomeGuy
Like I said, I’m no doctor.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Men's Basketball- Half way
02-11-23 11:33 PM - Post#351418
In response to SomeGuy
Tiebreaker and standings updates after this weekend:
(Obviously plenty can change, but I find it handy to see where everyone is as of now.)
1) Princeton/Yale 7-3
3) Brown/Penn 6-4
5) Dartmouth/Cornell 5-5
7) Harvard 3-7
8) Columbia 1-9
Princeton tiebreakers:
Winning: Cornell (2-0 H2H); Penn (1-0 H2H)
Losing: Yale (0-1 H2H); Brown (0-1 H2H); Dartmouth (1-1 H2H; DRT better record against Yale)
Yale tiebreakers:
Winning: Princeton (1-0 H2H); Penn (1-0 H2H); Brown (1-0 H2H); Dartmouth (1-1 H2H, YALE better record against Brown)
Losing: Cornell (0-1 H2H)
Brown tiebreakers:
Winning: Princeton (1-0 H2H); Dartmouth (2-0 H2H); Cornell (1-1 H2H, BRWN better record against Princeton)
Losing: Penn (0-1 H2H); Yale (0-1 H2H)
Penn tiebreakers:
Winning: Brown (1-0 H2H);
Losing: Yale (0-1 H2H); Princeton (0-1 H2H); Dartmouth (0-1 H2H); Cornell (1-1 H2H, COR better record against Yale)
Cornell tiebreakers:
Winning: Yale (1-0 H2H); Penn (1-1 H2H, COR better record against Yale); Dartmouth (1-0 H2H)
Losing: Princeton (0-2 H2H); Brown (1-1 H2H, BRWN better record against Princeton)
Dartmouth tiebreakers:
Winning: Princeton (1-1 H2H; DRT better record against Yale); Penn (1-0 H2H)
Losing: Brown (0-2 H2H); Cornell (0-1 H2H); Yale (1-1 H2H; YALE better record against Brown/Penn)
Edited by iogyhufi on 02-11-23 11:43 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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penn nation
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02-11-23 11:40 PM - Post#351419
In response to iogyhufi
As of now, D wins its tiebreaker with Penn, having gone 1-0 against it.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Men's Basketball- Half way
02-11-23 11:42 PM - Post#351420
In response to iogyhufi
Some observations from the above:
Penn can do itself a world of tiebreaker good by beating Yale on Friday. A loss would mean that DRT would probably beat Penn on the second tiebreaker and unless Penn would win at Jadwin, so would COR.
Princeton might look rough tiebreakerwise, but a weekend sweep puts them in phenomenal position.
All of the teams 1-6 still control their own destinies (except technically Cornell, whose 0-2 record against Princeton hurts a lot).
Edited by iogyhufi on 02-11-23 11:44 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-11-23 11:43 PM - Post#351421
In response to penn nation
As of now, D wins its tiebreaker with Penn, having gone 1-0 against it.
Oops, typo. Thanks for catching that.
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Streamers
Professor
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02-12-23 12:27 AM - Post#351423
In response to iogyhufi
There are entirely plausible scenarios where 5 teams end up with 9 wins. I don’t think 8-6 will make the cut this year.
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penn nation
Professor
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02-12-23 11:29 AM - Post#351446
In response to Streamers
Or, put another way, I don't think 8-6 will make the cut for Penn, since it will not fare well in most/all tiebreaker scenarios.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
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02-12-23 12:30 PM - Post#351452
In response to penn nation
Luke Benz updated his model.
https://lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspecs_basketball_... (click the "Ivy League" tab at the top)
Dartmouth/Cornell and Penn/Brown are the biggest games of the weekend for ILT purposes. A Dartmouth loss all but eliminates them, and a Dartmouth win suddenly puts Cornell in deep trouble. Similarly, a Penn win over Brown all but guarantees qualification (since that places Penn well for three-way ties), but a Penn loss puts them on the outside track.
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penn nation
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Posts: 21307
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02-12-23 12:38 PM - Post#351453
In response to iogyhufi
Interesting that in his model, if Penn ends up with 8 wins it has a very good chance (somewhere between 75% and 87.5%) of making the IL tourney.
I'm not so sure Penn gets in with 8 wins given that it will lose just about all of the tiebreaking scenarios.
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TheLine
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02-12-23 01:30 PM - Post#351458
In response to penn nation
If Penn beats Brown doesn't it own the 3-way tie scenario with Penn/Brown/Cornell?
And if there's no 3-way tie then isn't it likely that 8-6 makes the tournament?
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SomeGuy
Professor
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Reg: 11-22-04
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02-12-23 01:37 PM - Post#351459
In response to penn nation
Doesn’t Penn flip the tie breaking scenarios if they get to 8 wins (at least the ones that could leave them in 5th)? If they beat Brown, they have the tiebreaker against Brown, both head to head and in most three way scenarios. If they lose to Brown and still get to 8 wins, that means they will beat either Yale or Princeton (or both), which would address the issue they have in other tiebreaker scenarios. I assume that is what Benz is seeing.
Of course, getting to 8 wins isn’t going to be easy for Penn.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
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02-12-23 01:50 PM - Post#351462
In response to SomeGuy
You're pretty much correct. I can only think of one 8-6 three-way tie that Penn would lose if they beat Brown. If Penn beats Brown and one of YALE/PRIN and loses the rest, Dartmouth goes 3-1, and Brown goes 2-2, then the H2H tiebreaker doesn't resolve anything because each team is 2-2 against the group, so it would go to record against top teams, which is where Penn is in trouble.
But even then, once one of the three teams "wins" the tiebreaker, the process restarts at H2H with the remaining teams, so Penn only falls out if Brown is the team that comes out first. The scenarios are complicated, but let's just say that it's very unlikely that Brown would come out first.
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
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Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
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02-12-23 02:13 PM - Post#351464
In response to iogyhufi
Everyone can play out tiebreakers and scenarios here.
The home team is listed first. The team favored to win appears in RED in the background color. Change the team you predict to win by clicking on that team to turn their background color to RED.
It seems to be accurate.
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Streamers
Professor
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02-12-23 03:04 PM - Post#351472
In response to Stuart Suss
This is really helpful. Two immediate takeaways - Yale winning out actually helps Penn by taking Brown out unless they sweep this weekend and a Penn sweep this weekend makes them almost a lock for the tournament regardless.
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TheLine
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Men's Basketball- Half way
02-13-23 02:45 PM - Post#351544
In response to Streamers
Cornell and Dartmouth seem to do well in tiebreaker situations. They both have upcoming games against Columbia, Harvard and each other - it gives them reasonable paths to closing with 3 wins in the next 4 games.
The winner of the Penn-Brown game is in good shape. The loser not so much. Brown seems in when beating Penn plus winning one other game. Penn seems in by beating Brown and Dartmouth.
Yale and/or Princeton losing 3 of the next 4 creates a mess. Yale and Princeton don't do well if that happens.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
02-13-23 02:51 PM - Post#351545
In response to TheLine
So isn't Ivy Madness a great thing?
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