LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 434
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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01-29-23 03:27 PM - Post#350480
If it ended now, Ivy Madness would owe Princeton, Cornell,
Dartmouth and Yale. Obviously, Dartmouth is the surprise.
Do people believe they will stick? They have two All Ivy
quality players and a freshman who can score. All of that
and a chip on their shoulder because people assume they
will fade makes them dangerous in the second half.
What do others think?
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 04:20 PM - Post#350482
In response to LocalTiger
KenPom thinks the four will be Princeton, Cornell, Yale, and either Penn or Harvard. Luke Benz has Princeton, Cornell, and Yale as locks (and in that order), then gives Harvard and Penn the inside tracks for the last spot.
I think Dartmouth absolutely has a reasonable path to the 4 seed, and I'll be interested to see how they handle the second loop through the league. They'll probably need to beat at least one of Yale, Princeton, or Harvard at home to make it. That's possible, but they'll probably be underdogs in each one.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32844
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 07:58 PM - Post#350487
In response to iogyhufi
The only team I would characterize as a "lock" is Princeton. Yale still has to play @ Harvard and Dartmouth and Penn and Princeton and Brown. It is conceivable they lose all of those games. The schedule is skewed this year and Yale has played almost all of its home games (with one of the 2 they have left against Cornell). Cornell plays the P's this weekend on the road and if they split, they're in great shape. But drop both and they are on the cusp. Princeton has all those home games left and I don't see them dropping 3 or more of them.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21214
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 09:50 PM - Post#350492
In response to palestra38
Tiebreakers are likely to play a significant role this year. Penn's lack of a current win against Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth or Yale might cost it a chance in a tiebreaking scenario.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32844
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 11:08 PM - Post#350494
In response to penn nation
Maybe, but if Penn wins the rematch, it won't lose the tiebreaker. If it loses the rematches, rematches won't matter
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: Men's Basketball- Half way
01-29-23 11:22 PM - Post#350495
In response to palestra38
Point taken, but for what it's worth even if you think the four non-Princeton road games are 50/50, the math would expect Yale to win two of them, and that's all they're likely to need (assuming a home win over Columbia).
Still, I won't feel comfortable until we see those two road wins actually happen.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts: 337
Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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01-30-23 07:56 AM - Post#350500
In response to iogyhufi
I am bullish on Dartmouth. Cornish, Neskovic and Adelekun individually are terrific, together a real load. The Tigers did a good job against the Big Guy, who fouled out, but we're lucky to get an escape in OT. The two scorers combined for 55. With another half season to go 7 teams have a pathway. Penn always seems to get off the canvas, Yale can shoot the lights out (damn), Cornell just keeps coming, Brown has talent, Harvard has a split personality. Hope the League has all the tie breakers figured out.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-30-23 02:55 PM - Post#350511
In response to ToothlessTiger
I am bullish on Dartmouth. Cornish, Neskovic and Adelekun individually are terrific, together a real load. The Tigers did a good job against the Big Guy, who fouled out, but we're lucky to get an escape in OT. The two scorers combined for 55. With another half season to go 7 teams have a pathway. Penn always seems to get off the canvas, Yale can shoot the lights out (damn), Cornell just keeps coming, Brown has talent, Harvard has a split personality. Hope the League has all the tie breakers figured out.
Can Yale really shoot the lights out, or was this just a particularly flukey three-game spree at home? Prior to the Brown game they had been one of the worst 3-pt. shooting teams in the country. In the nine-game stretch from Stony Brook on Dec. 3 through Cornell on Jan. 13 they were a collective 27% from distance, and had only one game where they shot better than 30% (against Kentucky).
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 797
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-30-23 04:51 PM - Post#350528
In response to Chip Bayers
Mahoney yes. Best yale has ever had according to Jones
Pouli yes; but has been ice cold in conference. he had power 5 offers BC of his range and his shot is art
Mbeng no; he’s a work in progress and a swing factor. But as quick as he is he is baited. God forbid he go on a streak
Jarvis yes; he was a 3 level scorer at maret and that’s why he got power 5 offers.
Kelly/knowling streaky; at best. we’re mid range players in high school and not a big sample since
Gharram yes; he’s more like mbeng than not in what he prefers to do but showed range in high school
obviously yale misses Matt cotton and no one has shown much from the bench
In sum they caught lightning in a bottle of late but that’s likely not a strength bc the consistency is concentrated and could be a bother on the road.
The one caveat is mahoney and pouli have 3 level games. The former is starting to show it and the latter is hopefully mean reverting.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-05-23 10:48 AM - Post#350894
In response to james
This weekend hammered some things out. Harvard and Dartmouth both needed splits or better to stay in the thick of competition for the tourney and neither could manage it. Both teams still likely control their own destinies, but things look dire.
It's entirely possible that Brown-Penn at the Palestra is do-or-die for both teams. The same matchup with the same stakes happened in both 2018-19 and 2019-20, and both times, Penn won. The Lilly-Dingle duel with everything on the line ought to be fun.
It's a two-horse race for the top seed in the ILT after Cornell got swept and Yale swept this weekend. Yale has to win at Jadwin to stay alive in the race, and they have by far the harder remaining schedule, with road games at Penn and Brown and a home game against Cornell remaining. Princeton should be the house favorite here, but Yale also hasn't lost in Jadwin since 2018, so make of that what you will.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32844
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-05-23 10:55 AM - Post#350899
In response to iogyhufi
Princeton in a walk. Any of the others can finish from 2-5. If Yale manages to win more than 3 given its ridiculous schedule, all credit goes to Jones.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-05-23 11:08 AM - Post#350909
In response to palestra38
Penn has about as good of a chance of finishing second as Yale does of finishing first. The tiebreaker situation is not favorable for them (they'd have to beat Yale and Princeton at Jadwin to even make it a question) and they're a game back to boot.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21214
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-05-23 11:14 AM - Post#350912
In response to iogyhufi
Penn has about as good of a chance of finishing second as Yale does of finishing first. The tiebreaker situation is not favorable for them (they'd have to beat Yale and Princeton at Jadwin to even make it a question) and they're a game back to boot.
Not comparable since Yale has already beaten Princeton. If Yale beats Princeton again, they win that tiebreaker.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32844
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-05-23 11:38 AM - Post#350917
In response to iogyhufi
That's assuming Penn finishes tied with Yale. If Penn beats Harvard (admittedly no sure thing, but Harvard is reeling to the point none of its fans are posting anymore) and Yale beats Columbia (sure thing) next week, than the final 4 for Yale are at the Ps and Brown and home against Cornell, while Penn gets 3 of 4 home games. Not impossible to imagine Penn finishing ahead, even if it loses to Princeton.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 797
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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02-05-23 01:57 PM - Post#350937
In response to palestra38
Harvard could be a problem from here if they make shots.
Glad yale put a fork in it for now.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-05-23 02:18 PM - Post#350940
In response to palestra38
Though Yale will be favored in 4 for sure, and could even be a favorite at Princeton (kenpom suggets Yale should be favored). So kenpom says they run the table if you go game by game.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32844
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-05-23 02:41 PM - Post#350946
In response to SomeGuy
I’m talking betting lines, not KenPom
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-05-23 03:21 PM - Post#350950
In response to palestra38
Fair enough. And while kenpom is often remarkably accurate, I’m not sure it is giving an accurate sense of how close our league is this year.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32844
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 02:41 PM - Post#351046
In response to SomeGuy
Benz is out with his odds with 5 games to go as well as analysis of the 5-4 group:
https://twitter.com/recspecs730/status/16 223060058...
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8262
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 03:05 PM - Post#351048
In response to palestra38
I could quibble a bit with Cornell being too high and Brown too low, but I think he has it right. No matter who I look at this, for Penn, it is all about the B/Y home weekend.
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