palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32831
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 03:08 PM - Post#351049
In response to Streamers
He's basing it on simulations so take it for what it's worth.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-06-23 03:46 PM - Post#351053
In response to palestra38
It makes a lot of sense from a 10K foot view, I think. Cornell is in the driver's seat TB-wise (split with Penn, win over Brown, win over Yale) and has the easiest remaining schedule, so I buy them being a strong favorite to make the tourney. Penn and Brown's odds are more or less the same odds you'd give them to win the rematch at the Palestra, and that strikes me as reasonable too (since Brown's win over Princeton gives them a TB leg up). Penn still has an easier stretch run than Brown does, so that game may not be dispositive.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32831
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 05:23 PM - Post#351060
In response to iogyhufi
Certainly, on paper, Cornell has the easiest schedule, but its 2 away games are tough. Brown has to play at the Ps, Cornell. and Yale at home. Penn plays at Harvard, Yale, Brown and Dartmouth at the Palestra and finishing at Princeton.
I would say Brown has the toughest road there, but in this league, anything can happen. Yale also has a tough road--same as Brown but ending at Brown.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
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Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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02-06-23 05:43 PM - Post#351062
In response to palestra38
At the moment, the closest thing to certainty is that
Yale is the easiest opponent. Both Brown and Yale
have that game left, which is a big advantage.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 433
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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02-06-23 05:44 PM - Post#351063
In response to LocalTiger
Sorry, I meant Columbia is easiest.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts: 336
Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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02-06-23 07:27 PM - Post#351067
In response to LocalTiger
If 8-6 gets it done the Tigers can punch their ticket Saturday
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IvyBballFan
Masters Student
Posts: 479
Age: 77
Loc: Central Florida
Reg: 11-19-09
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02-07-23 05:36 PM - Post#351125
In response to palestra38
Certainly, on paper, Cornell has the easiest schedule, but its 2 away games are tough.
The Big Red's game at Brown Saturday is very big for both teams' tournament hopes.
#2 scorer Nazir Williams has missed the last two weekends. Without him, Cornell struggled to beat Brown at Newman Arena ten days ago. Getting a healthy Williams back for the game at the Pizz would really help Cornell.
With the unpredictability of the season's ups and downs for Dartmouth and Harvard, Cornell winning all three of their remaining home games is by no means a given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-08-23 12:54 AM - Post#351151
In response to IvyBballFan
I’m no doctor, but on Saturday Williams didn’t look like he would be ready for this week. He was moving very gingerly out there.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 433
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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02-10-23 01:08 PM - Post#351276
In response to SomeGuy
ESPN has Brown a more likely winner than Penn this weekend.
Surprising.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32831
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-10-23 01:35 PM - Post#351279
In response to LocalTiger
Brown is playing at home. Not at all surprising.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-11-23 05:12 PM - Post#351368
In response to SomeGuy
Like I said, I’m no doctor.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Men's Basketball- Half way
02-11-23 11:33 PM - Post#351418
In response to SomeGuy
Tiebreaker and standings updates after this weekend:
(Obviously plenty can change, but I find it handy to see where everyone is as of now.)
1) Princeton/Yale 7-3
3) Brown/Penn 6-4
5) Dartmouth/Cornell 5-5
7) Harvard 3-7
8) Columbia 1-9
Princeton tiebreakers:
Winning: Cornell (2-0 H2H); Penn (1-0 H2H)
Losing: Yale (0-1 H2H); Brown (0-1 H2H); Dartmouth (1-1 H2H; DRT better record against Yale)
Yale tiebreakers:
Winning: Princeton (1-0 H2H); Penn (1-0 H2H); Brown (1-0 H2H); Dartmouth (1-1 H2H, YALE better record against Brown)
Losing: Cornell (0-1 H2H)
Brown tiebreakers:
Winning: Princeton (1-0 H2H); Dartmouth (2-0 H2H); Cornell (1-1 H2H, BRWN better record against Princeton)
Losing: Penn (0-1 H2H); Yale (0-1 H2H)
Penn tiebreakers:
Winning: Brown (1-0 H2H);
Losing: Yale (0-1 H2H); Princeton (0-1 H2H); Dartmouth (0-1 H2H); Cornell (1-1 H2H, COR better record against Yale)
Cornell tiebreakers:
Winning: Yale (1-0 H2H); Penn (1-1 H2H, COR better record against Yale); Dartmouth (1-0 H2H)
Losing: Princeton (0-2 H2H); Brown (1-1 H2H, BRWN better record against Princeton)
Dartmouth tiebreakers:
Winning: Princeton (1-1 H2H; DRT better record against Yale); Penn (1-0 H2H)
Losing: Brown (0-2 H2H); Cornell (0-1 H2H); Yale (1-1 H2H; YALE better record against Brown/Penn)
Edited by iogyhufi on 02-11-23 11:43 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-11-23 11:40 PM - Post#351419
In response to iogyhufi
As of now, D wins its tiebreaker with Penn, having gone 1-0 against it.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Men's Basketball- Half way
02-11-23 11:42 PM - Post#351420
In response to iogyhufi
Some observations from the above:
Penn can do itself a world of tiebreaker good by beating Yale on Friday. A loss would mean that DRT would probably beat Penn on the second tiebreaker and unless Penn would win at Jadwin, so would COR.
Princeton might look rough tiebreakerwise, but a weekend sweep puts them in phenomenal position.
All of the teams 1-6 still control their own destinies (except technically Cornell, whose 0-2 record against Princeton hurts a lot).
Edited by iogyhufi on 02-11-23 11:44 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-11-23 11:43 PM - Post#351421
In response to penn nation
As of now, D wins its tiebreaker with Penn, having gone 1-0 against it.
Oops, typo. Thanks for catching that.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8254
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-12-23 12:27 AM - Post#351423
In response to iogyhufi
There are entirely plausible scenarios where 5 teams end up with 9 wins. I don’t think 8-6 will make the cut this year.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-12-23 11:29 AM - Post#351446
In response to Streamers
Or, put another way, I don't think 8-6 will make the cut for Penn, since it will not fare well in most/all tiebreaker scenarios.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-12-23 12:30 PM - Post#351452
In response to penn nation
Luke Benz updated his model.
https://lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspecs_basketball_... (click the "Ivy League" tab at the top)
Dartmouth/Cornell and Penn/Brown are the biggest games of the weekend for ILT purposes. A Dartmouth loss all but eliminates them, and a Dartmouth win suddenly puts Cornell in deep trouble. Similarly, a Penn win over Brown all but guarantees qualification (since that places Penn well for three-way ties), but a Penn loss puts them on the outside track.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-12-23 12:38 PM - Post#351453
In response to iogyhufi
Interesting that in his model, if Penn ends up with 8 wins it has a very good chance (somewhere between 75% and 87.5%) of making the IL tourney.
I'm not so sure Penn gets in with 8 wins given that it will lose just about all of the tiebreaking scenarios.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-12-23 01:30 PM - Post#351458
In response to penn nation
If Penn beats Brown doesn't it own the 3-way tie scenario with Penn/Brown/Cornell?
And if there's no 3-way tie then isn't it likely that 8-6 makes the tournament?
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