Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-18-23 02:13 PM - Post#351898
As provided by Luke Benz
"Princeton hasn't clinched [a berth in the tournament] yet (don't make playoffs in only 36 out of 4096 possible scenarios) but rounded probability yields > 99.9%."
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: 4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon
02-19-23 11:48 AM - Post#352090
In response to Stuart Suss
As of now, all three of Yale, Penn, and Princeton have clinched spots in the ILT (if Yale and/or Princeton loses out, they win any tie with Brown via their win over Penn, including a three-way tie with Cornell and Brown or a four-way tie with CBPY; Penn's win over Yale provides them with the same security).
Here's what every team needs (if I've done the math correctly):
Dartmouth: win out and have Cornell and Brown lose out
Brown: outperform Cornell by a game
Cornell: do as well or better than Brown and avoid a three way tie with Harvard
Harvard: win out, if Cornell and Brown each lose at least one
If Cornell loses out and Brown and Harvard are in a two-way tie, Brown wins the tie if it beats Yale, Harvard wins the tie if Brown loses to Yale and Cornell finishes above Dartmouth OR if Cornell and Dartmouth end up tied, Harvard likely wins on the analytics tiebreaker (though someone should check me on that one).
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: 4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon
02-19-23 12:56 PM - Post#352110
In response to iogyhufi
Here are the remaining 256 scenarios from Luke Benz, as corrected.
For the Brown fans, if I have read Luke's percentages correctly, he has Brown as a 21.75% chance to make the tournament.
If I have read correctly, there is a 74.08% chance of a Penn vs. Princeton matchup in the semifinals, 73.56% with the teams as 2 vs. 3 or 3 vs. 2 and a 0.52% chance with the teams as 1 vs. 4 or 4 vs. 1.
If I have read correctly, there is a 23.18% chance of the semifinal matchups being Penn vs. Princeton and Yale vs. Harvard.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32847
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: 4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon
02-19-23 12:59 PM - Post#352112
In response to Stuart Suss
There cannot be a 23% possibility of that, can there? Does Harvard have a 23% possibility of even making the playoff, having to play Princeton and Dartmouth and having to pick up a game against both Brown and Cornell?
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-19-23 01:16 PM - Post#352113
In response to palestra38
As I read Luke's numbers:
23.69% chance of Harvard making the tournament.
23.18% chance of Harvard vs. Yale
00.50% chance of Harvard vs. Penn
00.01% chance of Harvard vs. Princeton
It is not implausible that Yale defeats Cornell and Brown.
Can Harvard win at Dartmouth?
Can Harvard win at home against Princeton? How fast does Princeton recover from the Yale collapse?
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-19-23 01:32 PM - Post#352120
In response to Stuart Suss
For Penn fans hoping to avoid Princeton and Yale on successive days:
If I have read correctly . . .
14.22% chance of a semifinal matchup between Princeton and Yale. 11.35% as a 2 vs. 3 and 2.87% as a 1 vs. 4.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21217
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-19-23 06:07 PM - Post#352135
In response to Stuart Suss
For Penn fans hoping to avoid Princeton and Yale on successive days:
If I have read correctly . . .
14.22% chance of a semifinal matchup between Princeton and Yale. 11.35% as a 2 vs. 3 and 2.87% as a 1 vs. 4.
Almost no chance whatsoever (.05%) of Princeton finishing 2nd and Yale finishing 3rd. So it's not really even a quinella, as almost all of that percentage chance is Yale 2, Princeton 3.
Same for 1 vs 4. I got 3.08% chance and almost all of it is Yale 1 Princeton 4.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-20-23 02:50 PM - Post#352206
In response to penn nation
Really rooting for Brown here. For all the parity this year, here we are again with Yale and Penn in Ivy Madness (like every year) along with Princeton (like every year but one). For Harvard to sneak in to this would make for the same old field as just about every other year. Would be nice for Brown to break through (Dartmouth too, but that will take a miracle).
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32847
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-20-23 03:09 PM - Post#352207
In response to SomeGuy
Is there even one possibility for Dartmouth? Luke Benz's twitter page shows it with 0.00% chance.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon
02-20-23 03:38 PM - Post#352211
In response to palestra38
Technically yes, if Dartmouth wins 2 while Cornell and Brown drop 2.
Both Cornell and Brown hold the tiebreaker over Dartmouth.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21217
Reg: 12-02-04
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4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon
02-20-23 03:46 PM - Post#352212
In response to palestra38
Is there even one possibility for Dartmouth? Luke Benz's twitter page shows it with 0.00% chance.
His spreadsheet shows 4 scenarios out of the remaining 256 which would have Dartmouth ending up in 4th.
He has updated his spreadsheet so that the decimal points now go to the 4th decimal. So many of those that were previously 0.00 (technically correct, but not actually 0) you now see the rather meager odds.
The sum total is .0217% chance.
Edited by penn nation on 02-20-23 03:49 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: 4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon
02-20-23 06:32 PM - Post#352220
In response to TheLine
Problem is that the other way to state it is that Columbia has to win out for Dartmouth to sneak in.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21217
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: 4,096 remaining scenarios as of Saturday afternoon
02-20-23 06:53 PM - Post#352223
In response to SomeGuy
Yeah, in all 4 scenarios:
Columbia has to win out.
Dartmouth has to win out.
Yale has to win out.
Cornell has to lose twice.
Brown has to lose twice.
Edited by penn nation on 02-20-23 06:56 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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