palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-19-23 07:52 PM - Post#352143
Up to 131---best at any time since 2018, when we finished 125. Rosen team of 2012 was 139. If we win out and win the tournament, Penn will have its best ranking since the Dunphy era.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21310
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Close to the Kenpom Promised land
02-19-23 08:04 PM - Post#352147
In response to palestra38
And per the game recap on Penn Athletics:
Penn's seven-game winning streak is its longest since the 2011-12 season.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
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Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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02-19-23 08:14 PM - Post#352151
In response to penn nation
The quest for the title may very well come down to the final game at Jadwin, just like the old days. How delicious!!!!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21310
Reg: 12-02-04
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Close to the Kenpom Promised land
02-19-23 08:17 PM - Post#352153
In response to ToothlessTiger
The quest for the title may very well come down to the final game at Jadwin, just like the old days. How delicious!!!!
Provided that Yale drops 1 of its 2 remaining games and both Ps win this weekend, that is the precise scenario, yes.
Edited by penn nation on 02-19-23 08:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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penn nation
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Reg: 12-02-04
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02-20-23 06:13 PM - Post#352219
In response to penn nation
Penn is also now ahead of Princeton in Torvik and only 3 slots away (essentially tied) in Sagarin. And ranked higher up than in Ken Pom in the 110s.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21310
Reg: 12-02-04
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Close to the Kenpom Promised land
02-20-23 08:02 PM - Post#352229
In response to penn nation
Corrected info:
Penn is also now ahead of Princeton in Sagarin and only 3 slots away (essentially tied) in Torvik. And ranked higher up than in Ken Pom in the 110s.
Edited by penn nation on 02-20-23 08:04 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-21-23 05:18 PM - Post#352269
In response to penn nation
Our defense has dramatically improved. Much of that is the play of MLL, Monroe, and the return of George Smith. Martz has been consistent the whole season.
More importantly, SD's decision to play that group together was huge against Yale. He clearly decided it was going to be a defensive game and in the last 13 minutes of the second half MLL was inserted into and out of the lineup 7 times, most of the time along with Monroe and George Smith.
While Penn's KP defensive rating has improved from about KP280 in December/early Jan to KP 228 now, if you look at their defense since the conference slate started they are tracking around KP115.
The offense, currently KP76 has understandably slipped but only a little. Since the conference games started they are tracking around KP100.
THis level of play is good enough to win the ILT. Though Yale and Princeton's numbers are still better, we are in the same zip code.
As StuSuss pointed out, if we can be in the 1.2 ppp on offense and 1.0 ppp or better on defense, we have reason for optimism. That's where we have been playing the last couple weeks.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-21-23 05:31 PM - Post#352271
In response to PennFan10
You're right...but let's admit, playing home games helps a lot. We had a crazy schedule this year. And it's interesting that next Saturday, Princeton has to go to Harvard, which is playing better, while Penn is at home against Dartmouth. So notwithstanding being 3 games behind Princeton at one point, we have a decent chance of going to Jadwin for the final game a game up. Still need help from Cornell or Brown, but not a bad place to be given where we have been.
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
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Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-21-23 06:22 PM - Post#352278
In response to palestra38
I hope I never said that Penn needed to score 1.20 points per possession while holding opponents 1.00 points per possession. In a 70 possession game, that would produce a 14 point Penn victory. That is not a realistic goal given the strength of the remaining opponents in the regular season and in the Ivy Tournament.
Penn needed a 1.25 point per possession offense against Cornell (Palestra) when the defense surrendered 1.21 points per possession to a Big Red team that was playing without Nazir Williams. I do not believe the Penn offense is capable of producing 1.20 points per possession on a regular basis. In fact, the Quakers have scored above 1.20 points per possession only three times in conference, Columbia (Levien), Cornell (Palestra) and Brown (Palestra).
I believe I said that Penn would need to win a game (when the shots do not fall) by holding an opponent to less than 0.95 points per possession. As the game was playing out, I thought Yale (Palestra) would be that game. Penn only scored 1.02 points per possession even though Yale played the final 18:05 without Matt Knowling. Yale scored 1.00 points per possession in that game.
In five of the most recent six conference games (the exception being that Cornell game), Penn has produced a defensive efficiency of 1.01 points per possession or better. That level of defense, if it can be maintained, should be enough to win most games. However, I remain of the opinion that during at least one upcoming game, an even better defensive efficiency will be required.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-21-23 06:22 PM - Post#352279
In response to palestra38
I agree. I have said since the start of conference play that 6 of the first 7 on the road (with the home game being P) may not look good. But we also lost road games we should have won because of injury, poor play, etc. Also, to be fair I think its quantifiable that playing at home helps a little. I don't think it is quantifiable that it helps a lot.
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palestra38
Professor
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02-21-23 06:31 PM - Post#352280
In response to PennFan10
We seem to have played second halfs much better at home. Of course, we now have Smith, Laz and MLL in our rotation, which is a much stronger 8 man regular rotation than when the younger guys and Mosh were playing earlier in the year.
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TheLine
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Age: 60
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02-21-23 06:33 PM - Post#352281
In response to palestra38
Donahue has been substituting to maximize offense-defense platoons whenever there is a stop in play. It has been effective - partly in improving productivity, partly to prevent certain players from picking up fouls.
If Penn will be on defense then MLL comes in most of the time for Spinoso and Smith comes in for either Dingle or Slajchert. If Laz is playing then he comes out.
If Penn will be on on then Spinoso comes in for MLL. If Dingle or Slajchert is on the bench then they come in for Monroe or Smith. Laz sometimes comes in to give Martz or Monroe a breather.
Both MLL and Smith amp up the D. MLL has been good about staying out of foul trouble. It's going to be important for him to do that against Dartmouth and Princeton.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21310
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-21-23 09:03 PM - Post#352287
In response to palestra38
So notwithstanding being 3 games behind Princeton at one point, we have a decent chance of going to Jadwin for the final game a game up. Still need help from Cornell or Brown, but not a bad place to be given where we have been.
It's irrelevant what happens this weekend. The winner at Jadwin will finish ahead of the other.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-21-23 09:29 PM - Post#352289
In response to penn nation
So we will have a 7 game winning streak and they will have a 4 game losing streak.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21310
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-21-23 09:41 PM - Post#352290
In response to palestra38
So we will have a 7 game winning streak and they will have a 4 game losing streak.
Princeton currently has a 7 game win streak against us. Our last victory against them was on 2/6/17 at Jadwin.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6417
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-21-23 10:55 PM - Post#352292
In response to PennFan10
To quantify that it helps, in conference play no Ivy team has a winning record on the road this year. In contrast, all but Columbia and Harvard have a winning record at home.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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Close to the Kenpom Promised land
02-22-23 01:15 PM - Post#352304
In response to SomeGuy
To quantify that it helps, in conference play no Ivy team has a winning record on the road this year. In contrast, all but Columbia and Harvard have a winning record at home.
There is a long list of studies about HCA that are well documented and use thousands of games over many years for data. The consensus is that HCA exists because of referee activity. KenPom quantifies it as well as most.
https://kenpom.com/blog/mining-point-spr ead-data-h...
Penn's HCA, according to KP, is 2.3 pts (319th in D-1 and best in the IL). Here are the other Ivy's:
Harvard 2.2 pts (325th)
Cornell 2.1 pts (333rd)
Brown 2.1 pts (343rd)
Columbia 2.1 pts (341st)
Dartmouth 2.1 pts (331st)
Yale 1.9 pts (351st)
Princeton 1.8 pts (361st)
For comparison, the best HCA in D-1 is around 4.1-4.7 pts for teams like West Va, Texas Tech, TCU, Wake Forest, Kentucky, etc.
KP also tracks Home win % by conference. Ivy league is 62.5% which is 12th in the country (out of 32). Pac-12 and Big Ten are among the best at around 68%.
I think it's fair to say HCA helps a little, not a lot.
Edited by PennFan10 on 02-22-23 01:16 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8340
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Close to the Kenpom Promised land
02-22-23 02:57 PM - Post#352308
In response to PennFan10
I find the paltry IL HCA surprising in light of the 5YO data that included the back-backs. I won't attempt this, but I wonder what it would be if we just looked at back-back Saturdays?
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 366
Reg: 03-25-09
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02-22-23 06:09 PM - Post#352324
In response to penn nation
So if Penn loses to Dartmouth and princeton beats Harvard but Penn beats princeton, Penn finishes ahead of princeton?
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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Close to the Kenpom Promised land
02-22-23 06:34 PM - Post#352326
In response to yoyo
So if Penn loses to Dartmouth and princeton beats Harvard but Penn beats princeton, Penn finishes ahead of princeton?
Yes, by virtue of its win over first-place Yale. Unless, of course, Yale loses its last two games and Cornell wins its last two. Unless Brown also wins its last two, in which case, yes again. Confused yet?
Bottom line is if Yale wins out, does it really matter who wins the tiebreaker for second place? Either way, Penn and Princeton would play each other in the ILT semifinals.
Edited by 13otto on 02-22-23 06:38 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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