UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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03-26-23 03:52 PM - Post#355115
Last year this time, I wrote an optimistic piece predicting that Penn had the best chance of improving this year among the Ivies. As measured by KP ranks, that prediction came true. Penn improved by the most 85 points. See, I can be optimistic. Unfortunately, they finished no closer to the dance because Yale improved by almost as much, 82 points, and Princeton improved 15 points against a 107 starting place. With four Penn starters returning, what about next year?
I divided the analysis into three parts. The first is measuring lost experience. I used the KP %minute numbers. On that basis, Penn finished sixth, losing one starter and a bunch of depth. Columbia finished first, losing nobody. Yale was fifth, Princeton seventh, and Harvard eighth. The good news is that Y, P, and H all lost star power. Still, where is Penn going to get Monroe’s rebounding and D and MLL’s shot blocking?
The second part is the possibility of a significant improvement among the incumbent players. Clearly, the most likely place for such improvement is among next year’s sophomores. I give you Nick Spinoso for Penn this year. To identify likely 2024 sophs, I looked for any 2023 freshman who had a %- minutes- played of 25% or more. I figure a rising talent would get at least some time as a freshman. Since 2004, Penn has had only one frosh with less time than that who became a significant contributor later, the player being Matt Howard (the coach being Jerome Allen). Sadly, neither of Penn’s 2023 freshmen got anywhere near that level. One was ineligible, but Cam Thrower played a position where Penn badly needed additional scoring and depth. Yet he got no time. I hope they both contribute significantly next year. But the existing data calls that a stretch. On that basis, freshman time, Penn tied for last in the league with Yale. Columbia was first – not a surprise on a team with no other talent. But, the Pussies were second. Not good!
The third analysis is recruiting. I used verbal commits, giving one point for each commit and two extra points for a commit with interest from major schools. Bad news again! The Pussies came in first with two heavily recruited players among five commits. Sorry to bring this up, but Henderson comes out of a Championship year with the strongest young talent in the league. It’s recruiting stupid! Penn finished fourth. Brown finished second with one super recruit and four others. Yale and Harvard each got one hotshot. Penn had better win next year, because the years after-Dingle look bleak.
Combine the ordinals of the three analyses, and you get Dartmouth with the best chance of improvement, followed by Brown and, damn it, the Pussies. Penn comes in last. Fortunately, Penn at KP 126 has the third-best launch point. Columbia obviously will not go dancing, but they will win more than two games in the league next year. Unfortunately, improvement for Penn depends on two of the interesting but not outstanding recruits coming through or significant development among the incumbents, most of whom are close to their college peaks, perhaps Nick excepted. Is Jordan going to be first in the country in scoring next year? Would that be a meaningful improvement over finishing second?
Of course, we will debate these issues until late October. My point in this analysis is simply to establish that, unlike Princeton, we are not in a strong position to dominate, in a league that continues to improve. I hope a big improvement happens, especially among the frosh and sophs. How likely? Not very, sadly. Qualify for Ivy Madness? Likely for one more year, but not much more after that.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23574
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-26-23 04:10 PM - Post#355117
In response to UPIA1968
Can’t wait for Palestra 38 to respond to this
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21312
Reg: 12-02-04
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Next year
03-26-23 04:22 PM - Post#355119
In response to 10Q
Next year in...Philadelphia, where we will eat the prescribed meal in the Palestra.
I guess the seatbacks are the Holy of Holies?
The good news is that we lose very little on offense in terms of scoring punch. But on other stuff, you bet. Holland or Thrower--hopefully both--need to show something. And not sure what kind of big man defensive presence we'll be able to muster.
Edited by penn nation on 03-26-23 04:24 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6418
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next year
03-26-23 06:29 PM - Post#355126
In response to UPIA1968
I’m not sure about KP’s numbers re minutes. Dartmouth and Yale both lose more minutes than Penn does (including guys who got all-Ivy accolades). Brown and Cornell lose fewer minutes, but by a de minis amount, and again, both lose guys on the all-Ivy list.
Edited by SomeGuy on 03-26-23 06:30 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32916
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next year
03-26-23 08:22 PM - Post#355130
In response to SomeGuy
I'm not ready to react to this, other than to say that Steve is on the firing line next year.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-27-23 10:10 AM - Post#355140
In response to palestra38
I agree with P38, next year is the year.
In terms of your points:
1-we bring back enough to win
2-we have actually done a decent job developing players historically. It's go time for Eddie Holland, Reese McMullen, Laz and Gus Larson. I think Cam Thrower will be a factor next year and Ubochi has the athleticism and length to replace MLL, but he could just as easily be a bust or a surprise. Of the newcomers, I think Gerhart and Sam Brown have the ability to be in the rotation early and Polonowski is a Ryan Betley type (probably doesn't shoot it as well) so could surprise. I think there are plenty of pieces to develop and fit with JD, Martz, Clark and Spinoso. (Spinoso has to become a threat with his right hand)
3-Recruiting-we are all disappointed we haven't made a bigger splash so we'll see how this summer and fall shake out. Guys like Tosan and Oni and Dingle are out there....
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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03-27-23 10:21 AM - Post#355141
In response to PennFan10
Wasn't there a big guy recruited for this season who did not suit up for whatever reason? Maybe he is the answer to replacing the MLL defense and helping with the rebounding? Are any of the freshmen incoming likely to have an impact? Next season would seem to be the year but you never really know. I mean Dingle was considered a good recruit but did anyone think he would turn into the star he is? And Clark should hopefully be able to avoid that long slump he had this year.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32916
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-27-23 10:40 AM - Post#355143
In response to OldBig5
That is Ubochi
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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03-27-23 10:42 AM - Post#355144
In response to palestra38
That is Ubochi
Thanks.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1905
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-27-23 04:53 PM - Post#355184
In response to OldBig5
NYCHOOPS was pretty clear that Dingle was a star get.
The slower development of Jonah Charles is the big surprise for me. I didn't watch closely enough to see what he has or hasn't done, but he came out the gates well as a Freshman. I figured he would have the tools to be a good defender and playmaker - and potentially a guy we could run around screens.
I also think Eddie Holland has more in store. Hopeful that he is a missing piece that steps forward this summer.
Wasn't there a big guy recruited for this season who did not suit up for whatever reason? Maybe he is the answer to replacing the MLL defense and helping with the rebounding? Are any of the freshmen incoming likely to have an impact? Next season would seem to be the year but you never really know. I mean Dingle was considered a good recruit but did anyone think he would turn into the star he is? And Clark should hopefully be able to avoid that long slump he had this year.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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03-27-23 08:10 PM - Post#355197
In response to Penndemonium
IIRC, Charles did not play during his freshman year due to injury. He then lost the pandemic year, so he really only played for two seasons. I think that may have had a lot to do with his lack of development at both ends of the floor. Unfortunately, he was a one dimensional player who wasn't able to make consistent use of the skill he was best known for. Opposing defenses, especially in conference, geared the way they played him to prevent him from getting open shots.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21312
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-27-23 08:29 PM - Post#355198
In response to weinhauers_ghost
And this is what bugged many of us. SD would time and time again put Charles out there and, unless playing an inferior opponent, he would often have a hard time getting shots off. He gave him chance after chance after chance. He was a liability most of the time he played.
Well, you know what they say about insanity. All the while, anything more than token opportunities for Holland and Thrower did not transpire, and that's on SD.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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03-27-23 09:41 PM - Post#355201
In response to penn nation
I don't see why Holland couldn't take over Monroe's role on defense. He's got the size, length and mobility, and can actually stretch the floor by shooting from the perimeter. I thought he should have been in the rotation this season.
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slane
Freshman
Posts: 72
Reg: 02-09-05
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03-27-23 10:41 PM - Post#355205
In response to PennFan10
What about Perkins?
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nychoops
Junior
Posts: 244
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-28-23 10:34 AM - Post#355226
In response to slane
I know Penn has reached out to 2 previously unmentioned quality transfers so let's hope that's works out
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6418
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-28-23 01:35 PM - Post#355235
In response to penn nation
Well, there are different ways you can use a guy like Charles. There are scenarios where without Dingle and Slajchert, we would work a lot harder to get him shots. If we didn’t have the other two, Charles would likely have been our highest scorer. But that wasn’t how we played. Instead, Charles was used mainly as a shooting threat who was out there mainly to stand there and dare teams not to guard him (and hopefully the impact of that is to spread the floor for the other guys).
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32916
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-28-23 02:24 PM - Post#355240
In response to SomeGuy
Yeah, except he was not successful as a 4th option. How could he have been more successful as a 1st or 2nd? Who knows what happened with him, but he may be the most disappointing player recruited by Donahue.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1905
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-29-23 04:31 AM - Post#355267
In response to palestra38
Intrigued about the transfers. Fingers crossed that they can play and that they want to impact our team!
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91Quake
PhD Student
Posts: 1126
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-29-23 07:58 AM - Post#355268
In response to Penndemonium
If anyone wants to kill some time and keep an eye on what is going on with that world this is a good space:
https://twitter.com/ThePortalReport
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32916
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-29-23 08:30 AM - Post#355269
In response to 91Quake
It's so incredibly crazy. Mid-major coaches lose their entire core after a decent year.
Jay Wright was a genius for walking when he did.
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