JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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12-04-23 08:11 PM - Post#360155
In response to CM
Week four and 63% of the out of conference season is complete.
Ivies Week 4: 10-5
Ivies Overall: 34-31
The NCAA began producing their NET rankings as of 3 Dec – so converting metrics over – Ivies look a bit worse under the NCAA NET … remenber the Ivy women’s tiebreaker uses NCAA NET
Princeton 44
Harvard 58
Columbia 64
Brown 164
Cornell 201
Penn 209
Yale 260
Dartmouth 337
From a Post season perspective:
NCAA At large (likely need a NET better than 48, realistically 40 for a mid major) : not saying Princeton Harvard or Columbia are out of contention, but the specter of last season looms large, as only Princeton (at Nova - 35) has a remaining game vs an out of conference team with a NET lower than theirs
What make it harder as one enters conference play, not only Power 5 teams just have so much more opportunity to improve their NET – but five mid major conferences are ahead of the Ivies
Row Labels Average of Rank
Pac-12 40
Big 12 52
ACC 63
Big Ten 65
SEC 66
Big East 96
AAC 147
WCC 155
Atlantic 10 159
Mountain West 166
Sun Belt 167
Ivy League 167
Overall Average 181
MVC 185
CUSA 189
WBIT (likely need a NET better than 85): Columbia, Harvard & Princeton are all eligible.
WNIT: (likely need a NET better than 140) Brown is likely on the CUSIP – depending on if the WBIT and / or WNIT will take teams with a losing record
Ivies are winning more than expectation – Brown & Cornell (why their NET is so high) – Columbia and Yale are below expectations (hurting their NET)
Team Expectation Actual D ifference
Brown 3.5 6 2.5
Columbia 6.0 5 (1.0)
Cornell 2.3 4 1.7
Dartmouth 1.9 2 0.1
Harvard 4.0 5 1.0
Penn 4.6 5 0.4
Princeton 4.5 5 0.5
Yale 3.5 2 (1.5)
Total 30.2 34 3.8
Upset Wins (27% of Games) – Week 4:
Cornell over Binghamton
Yale over UMASS
Cornell over Bucknell
Columbia over Villanova
Upset Losses (10-15% of Games) – Week 4:
Michigan over Harvard
Rhode Island over Princeton
Merrimack over Yale
Moral Victories:
None this week
Vs. the Spread:
Her Hoops Stats
Ivies Week 4 vs. Spread: 7-7
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 34-18-1
For ESPN (fewer games, but closer spreads)
Ivies Week 3 vs. Spread: 7-7
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 28-18
Over – Under
The under wins 62% of the time in HHS and ESPN
Here is the current out of conference schedule strength based on NCAA NET:
Princeton 120
Columbia 141
Harvard 148
Penn 171
Cornell 178
Yale 188
Brown 190
Dartmouth 263
Average OCC 172
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 437
Reg: 10-11-18
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12-07-23 09:08 AM - Post#360265
In response to JDP
Harvard getting smashed by Maine might be an unfortunate sign of things to come for the Crimson should Turner not return this season.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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12-07-23 05:29 PM - Post#360294
In response to CM
What happened to Turner?
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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12-07-23 05:56 PM - Post#360295
In response to PeteD
Oh no… just saw the play in the 2nd Qtr of the Michigan game. She felt something in her right knee after pushing off that leg on a 3-pt shot. Hope she’s ok, but she appeared to be in a lot of discomfort. Prayers for a quick recovery… I’m a big fan of hers.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2180
Reg: 02-14-06
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12-08-23 11:16 AM - Post#360307
In response to PeteD
According to various articles on the Internet, Harmoni Turner missed her entire senior year of high school basketball in Texas due to surgery on her knee. Any update on her current status? I am hoping for the best for her. She is a terrific player and has already overcome much adversity just to make it to Harvard.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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12-08-23 05:28 PM - Post#360336
In response to Columbia 37P6
I doubt anything will be posted publicly, at least not from the team. I heard from someone a while ago that the team is prohibited from disclosing info about injuries.
When Perri Page tore her ACL earlier this year, there was no mention about it until after she returned to the court.
Harmoni is somewhat active on Twitter, so she might make a post about how she’s doing. Hope she’s back on the court very soon.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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12-08-23 05:34 PM - Post#360337
In response to PeteD
Btw, Harvard was up 28-20 over Michigan when she left the game. The Crimson would have had a great chance to win if Harmoni didn’t get injured.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy WBB 23 Out Of Conference Thread
12-11-23 11:04 AM - Post#360482
In response to PeteD
Week five and 78% of the out of conference season is complete.
Ivies Week 4: 9-7
Ivies Overall: 43-37
Now after 80 games in 35 days – with fall exams upon us, there will be only 21 games over the next 22 days – expect the quality of Ivy play to improve, as teams will have more time between games and more time for coaching
Reading days loom large for Princeton – as the Nova and Rutgers games will be meaningful to their current 45 NET if they want to remain in at large contention. As the league is a tad weaker than last year – Columbia’s NET is 76 and Harvard’s is 92 – so wins amongst the top 3 will not lift any of these teams much higher, and losses will be harder to overcome.
To echo the comments about Harmoni Turner – prayesr for a speedy and complete recovery. Only a handful of 5-star recruits come to the Ivy League and Turner has been a great competitor elevating the league. Someone worthy of rooting for – despite who your favorite team may be. Sad update in the past hour out of Cambridge:
https://gocrimson.com/news/2023/12/11/women s-baske...
"Harvard women's basketball junior guard, Harmoni Turner, is out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury that will require surgery."
Remember the Ivy women’s tiebreaker uses NCAA NET
School NET WoW (- good)
Princeton 45 1
Columbia 76 12
Harvard 92 34
Brown 167 3
Penn 199 -10
Cornell 235 34
Yale 259 -1
Dartmouth 320 -17
Note Cornell fell, even with a win this week, is in part with their average opponent NET falling by 9. Why for an at large bid, one needs to be comfortably inside the bubble
From a Post season perspective:
NCAA At large (likely need a NET better than 48, realistically 40 for a mid major): not saying anyone is out of contention, but the math keeps working against the Ivy League
WBIT (likely need a NET better than 85): Columbia & Princeton are all eligible – Harvard on the bubble.
WNIT: (assuming need a winning record likely need a NET better than 175) Harvard is in, Brown is likely in the how may teams don’t have a winning record bubble,
Team Expectation Actual D iifference
Brown 5.0 8 3.0
Columbia 7.8 7 (0.8)
Cornell 3.1 5 1.9
Dartmouth 3.3 4 0.7
Harvard 5.3 5 (0.3)
Penn 5.8 6 0.2
Princeton 5.4 6 0.6
Yale 4.1 2 (2.1)
League 39.7 43 3.3
Upset Wins (23% of Games) – Week 5:
Dartmouth over Merrimack
Upset Losses (15% of Games) – Week 4:
Maine over Harvard
Boston U over Harvard
Moral Victories:
None this week
Vs. the Spread:
Her Hoops Stats
Ivies Week 5 vs. Spread: 5-11
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 40-28-1
For ESPN (fewer games, but closer spreads)
Ivies Week 5 vs. Spread: 6-10
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 35-28
Over – Under
The under wins 57% of the time in HHS and ESPN – down from low 60%
Here is the current out of conference schedule strength based on NCAA NET:
Princeton 117
Columbia 141
Harvard 149
Penn 177
Brown 187
Yale 187
Cornell 187
Dartmouth 262
Average OCC 173
Edited by JDP on 12-11-23 11:10 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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12-13-23 01:27 PM - Post#360600
In response to JDP
The chances of Columbia getting an at-large bid seem slim to none. With a NET ranking of 76, they’d have to run the table to the Ivy championship game. Even then, I doubt their NET would get below 45-50.
On a related note, I’m baffled how Seton Hall (who Columbia defeated by 11) could have a NET of 44. Their best win is vs East Carolina (NET 82) at home by 11. They have a good road loss vs Princeton (double OT), but their other “good” loss was vs USC on a neutral court by 10, but that game was over at halftime (USC by 15)… SH never threatened in the 2nd half.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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12-18-23 02:27 PM - Post#360739
In response to CM
Week six – week one of exams and 82% of the out of conference season is complete.
Ivies Week 6: 3-1
Ivies Overall: 46-38
Princeton fell two NET spots for the week at 47 – a slight boost from for beating Nova, and a slight fall for a smaller than expected win margin over Rutgers.
Dartmouth went 1-1 – but better than expected results so the Big Greens NET improved 10 to 310 from 320
For not playing, most ivies improved Week over Week (WoW) aa their opponent's improved – Penn’s fell 11, despite not playing, their OOC NET fell by 7 as their wins over Marist, La Salle and Merrimack not looking as good. Remember the Ivy women’s tiebreaker uses NCAA NET – Overall the Ivy League is the 12th ranked conference by NET (close to 11) – just over the median level of 181
School NET WoW (- good)
Princeton 47 2
Columbia 71 -5
Harvard 89 -3
Brown 158 -9
Penn 210 11
Cornell 221 -14
Yale 252 -7
Dartmouth 310 -10
Overall 170 -4
From a Post season perspective:
NCAA At large (likely need a NET better than 48, realistically 40 for a mid major): not saying Princeton of anyone is out of contention, but the math keeps working against the Ivy League
WBIT (likely need a NET better than 85): Columbia & Princeton are all eligible – Harvard on the bubble.
WNIT: (assuming need a winning record likely need a NET better than 175) Harvard is in, Brown is likely in the how may teams don’t have a winning record bubble,
Brown and Cornell ahead of expectation, Yale behind.
Team Expectation Actual D ifference
Brown 5.0 8 3.0
Columbia 7.8 7 (0.8)
Cornell 3.1 5 1.9
Dartmouth 3.8 5 1.2
Harvard 5.3 5 (0.3)
Penn 5.8 6 0.2
Princeton 6.7 8 1.3
Yale 4.1 2 (2.1)
League 41.5 46 4.5
Upset Wins (21%-25% of Games) – Week 6:
Princeton over Villanova
Dartmouth over UMass Lowell
Upset Losses (15% of Games) – Week 6
:
None this week
Moral Victories:
None this week
Vs. the Spread:
Her Hoops Stats
Ivies Week 5 vs. Spread: 3-1
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 43-29-1
For ESPN (fewer games, but closer spreads)
Ivies Week 5 vs. Spread: 1-1
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 36-29
Over – Under
The under wins 57% of the time in HHS and ESPN
Here is the current out of conference schedule strength based on NCAA NET:
Princeton 114 (3)
Columbia 137 (4)
Harvard 146 (2)
Brown 178 (9)
Yale 184 (4)
Cornell 184 (4)
Penn 184 7
Dartmouth 260 (2)
Average OCC 170 (3)
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 437
Reg: 10-11-18
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12-20-23 11:10 AM - Post#360750
In response to JDP
Harvard has yet to win since Turner's injury and it seems likely they plunge out of post-season contention.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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12-25-23 06:05 PM - Post#360890
In response to CM
Happy Holidays!
Week seven – week two of exams and 87% of the out of conference season is complete.
Ivies Week 6: 2-3
Ivies Overall: 48-41
Not much really to comment up - no material NET changes the past week – Overall the Ivy League is the 11th ranked conference by NET (just above the Mountain West)
School NET WoW (- good)
Princeton 51 5
Columbia 71 1
Harvard 89 1
Brown 156 -3
Cornell 202 -1
Penn 205 -6
Yale 271 15
Dartmouth 319 10
Overall 170 2
From a Post season perspective:
NCAA At large (likely need a NET better than 48, realistically 40 for a mid major): not saying Princeton of anyone is out of contention, but they do not play any team with a better NET that can help them materially improve
WBIT (likely need a NET better than 85): Columbia & Princeton are all eligible – Harvard on the bubble.
WNIT: (assuming need a winning record likely need a NET better than 175) Harvard is in, Brown is likely in, depending on how may teams don’t have a winning record.
Brown and Cornell ahead of expectation, Yale behind.
Team Expectation Actual D ifference
Brown 5.0 8 3.0
Columbia 7.8 7 (0.8)
Cornell 4.1 6 1.9
Dartmouth 4.4 5 0.6
Harvard 6.2 6 (0.2)
Penn 5.8 6 0.2
Princeton 6.7 8 1.3
Yale 4.3 2 (2.3)
League 44.3 48 3.7
Upset Wins (20%-22% of Games) – Week 7:
None this week
Upset Losses (10-15% of Games) – Week 7:
Lafayette over Dartmouth
Moral Victories:
Cornell vs. Syracuse – up 86.7% win percentage up 63-57 5 min to go
Vs. the Spread:
Her Hoops Stats
Ivies Week 7 vs. Spread: 2-3
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 45-33
For ESPN (fewer games, but ESPN set more accuarte spreads)
Ivies Week 7 vs. Spread: 1-1
Ivies Overall vs. Spread: 37-30
Over – Under
The under wins 55% of the time in HHS and ESPN (but the over has been a better wager lately)
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy WBB 23 Out Of Conference Thread
01-01-24 11:52 PM - Post#361111
In response to CM
As the D1 out of conference play has come to play, some stats, courtesy of Her Hoops Stats, on who played well in the out of conference portion of the season:
PER > 20 playing >20 min per game
PLAYER TEAM PER
Abbey Hsu Columbia 29.5
Elena Rodriguez Harvard 28.5
Cecelia Collins Columbia 27.3
Harmoni Turner Harvard 26.2
Madison St. Rose Princeton 23.1
Kitty Henderson Columbia 22.3
Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 21.9
Brenna McDonald Yale 21.8
Stina Almqvist Penn 21.7
Kyla Jones Brown 21.0
Jenna Clark Yale 20.3
Jordan Obi Penn 20.2
Top four Freshman for Ivy Rookie of the Year – PER measurement – 20+ min per game
Rachel Kaus Cornell 19.0
Mataya Gayle Penn 17.6
Skye Belker Princeton 16.8
Nina Minicozzi Dartmouth 15.8
Top 5 Scoring
PLAYER TEAM PTS
Abbey Hsu Columbia 21.9
Harmoni Turner Harvard 20.6
Kyla Jones Brown 17.3
Mataya Gayle Penn 16.5
Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 16.3
Top 5 Assists
PLAYER TEAM AST
Jenna Clark Yale 6.6
Kitty Henderson Columbia 4.6
Harmoni Turner Harvard 4.4
Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 4.2
Elena Rodriguez Harvard 3.9
Top 5 FG% - PPG
PLAYER TEAM FG% PTS
Elena Rodriguez Harvard 54.7% 13.1
Cecelia Collins Columbia 51.4% 12.5
Kitty Henderson Columbia 47.8% 12.8
Kyla Jones Brown 46.7% 17.3
Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 46.3% 16.3
Top 3 Point % - 3 Point Attempts
PLAYER TEAM 3P% 3PA
Madison St. Rose Princeton 40.3% 5.2
Abbey Hsu Columbia 35.6% 7.8
Lola Mullaney Harvard 35.3% 7.8
Riley Weiss Columbia 34.4% 4.9
Isabella Mauricio Brown 31.5% 7.4
Top Free Throw % - Min 40 Attempts
PLAYER TEAM FT% FTA
Harmoni Turner Harvard 87.0% 46
Cecelia Collins Columbia 85.4% 41
Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 81.3% 48
Stina Almqvist Penn 80.0% 60
Kyla Jones Brown 74.2% 62
Top 5 Rebounding
PLAYER TEAM TRB ORB
Ellie Mitchell Princeton 11.1 4.2
Doreen Ariik Dartmouth 10.1 3.4
Alyssa Moreland Brown 7.3 1.8
Abbey Hsu Columbia 7.2 1.5
Jordan Obi Penn 7.2 1.4
Elena Rodriguez Harvard 7.2 2.2
Top 5 Steals
PLAYER TEAM STL
Alyssa Moreland Brown 2.5
Grace Arnolie Brown 2.4
Kitty Henderson Columbia 2.1
Harmoni Turner Harvard 2.0
Mataya Gayle Penn 2.0
Top 5 Blocks
PLAYER TEAM BLK
Doreen Ariik Dartmouth 1.7
Jordan Obi Penn 1.5
Brenna McDonald Yale 1.4
Parker Hill Princeton 1.2
Ellie Mitchell Princeton 1.0
Elena Rodriguez Harvard 1.0
Stina Almqvist Penn 1.0
Ada Anamekwe Brown 1.0
Edited by JDP on 01-02-24 12:04 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 437
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy WBB 23 Out Of Conference Thread
01-02-24 07:22 AM - Post#361113
In response to JDP
This list really drives home how much Harvard is going to miss Turner.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-02-24 01:20 PM - Post#361127
In response to CM
Agreed- i thought clearly a POTY candidate
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2180
Reg: 02-14-06
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01-02-24 02:29 PM - Post#361130
In response to JDP
Great detailed info on the Ivy League Women--much appreciated--thank you.
With regard to the ROY candidate list, I do agree with the criteria used, but note as a matter of interest that Columbia's two standout freshman players, Riley Weiss and Fliss Henderson, are certainly outstanding first years and likely All-Ivy players in the future.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-02-24 07:31 PM - Post#361139
In response to Columbia 37P6
By all means ... Fadima Tall, who is the highest ranked ESPN ranked freshman, and others likely as well.
A lot of being rookie of the year is being in the right place at the right time ... those that play major minutes (20+) for their team are more likely to be considered for ROY, but anyone who can to play meaningful minutes (>5,<25)as a freshman, means you are college basketball ready, and highly likely will be a future major contributor and in the All Ivy conversation.
These are all the Ivy freshman that are playing more than 5 min per game and scoring more than 5 ppg:
PLAYER TEAM MIN PTS PER
Nina Minicozzi Dartmouth 34.7 8.9 15.8
Mataya Gayle Penn 33.3 16.5 17.6
Azareya Kilgoe Cornell 28.8 7.9 11.6
Skye Belker Princeton 25.6 9.7 16.8
Rachel Kaus Cornell 22.1 8.9 19
Abigail Wright Harvard 17.9 6.7 17.6
Riley Weiss Columbia 15.2 7.2 17.8
Ashley Chea Princeton 14.5 5.6 14.5
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-02-24 08:29 PM - Post#361142
In response to JDP
Happy New Year!
Week Eight + 1 Day – The Ivies returned from well from the exam break to close out the D1 out of conference schedule. Only one non D1 Game left for Dartmouth to fully close out the out of conference schedule.
Ivies Week 8/9: 9-3
Ivies D1 Overall: 53-44
Ivies Overall: 57-44
Overall a good campaign, as the Ivies finish 10-15 (40% win rate) vs. the Power 6 – 7 Big East wins - with 23 upset wins vs. 16 upset losses.
Conference W L NET
ACC 1 3 87
Big 12 1 1 39
Big Ten 1 4 53
Pac-12 0 1 5
Big East 7 4 74
SEC 0 2 61
AAC 2 1 125
America East 9 5 233
ASUN 0 1 68
Atlantic 10 6 5 174
Big West 1 1 251
CAA 4 3 145
CUSA 1 1 100
MAAC 8 1 282
Mountain West 0 1 119
MVC 1 0 148
NEC 4 1 321
Patriot 2 6 233
Summit League 1 0 137
WCC 4 3 194
Overall 53 44 173
With the wins, the Ivies NCAA NET improved since 22 Dec– Overall the Ivy League is the 11th ranked conference by NET (just above the Mountain West)
Harvard with a 30-point win at then #173 Delaware and Yale with a 24 point home win over then #220 Quinnipiac were the biggest positive movers
School NET WoW (- good)
Princeton 51 0
Columbia 67 -4
Harvard 71 -18
Brown 153 -3
Penn 204 -1
Cornell 216 14
Yale 249 -22
Dartmouth 324 5
Overall 167 -4
Since the NET started to be published on 3 December – here is the range for each school:
School Min Median Max Ran ge
Brown 145 159 167 22
Columbia 62 71 79 17
Cornell 199 216 237 38
Dartmouth 308 320 346 38
Harvard 58 88 94 36
Penn 187 203 212 25
Princeton 41 47 52 11
Yale 249 258 274 25
Overall 166 170 174 8
From a Post season perspective:
NCAA At large (likely need a NET better than 48, realistically 40 for a mid major): not saying anyone is out of contention, but hard for a non-Power 6 to move up, when they do play a NET 40 or lower
WBIT (likely need a NET better than 85): Columbia, Harvard & Princeton are all currently eligible
WNIT: (assuming need a winning record likely need a NET better than 175) Brown is likely in as there will be good NET Power 6 schools with losing records after conference play, Penn, with a has some work to do. Cornell, Dartmouth & Yale are unlikely to finish with a 500 or better record.
Brown and Cornell beat expectations, Yale is behind.
Team Expectation Actual D ifference
Brown 5.8 9 3.2
Columbia 9.4 9 (0.4)
Cornell 4.1 6 1.9
Dartmouth 4.4 5 0.6
Harvard 7.3 7 (0.3)
Penn 7.3 8 0.7
Princeton 8.4 10 1.6
Yale 4.8 3 (1.8)
League 51.5 57 5.5
Here is the current out of conference schedule strength based on NCAA NET:
School NET WoW (- good)
Princeton 123 8
Columbia 136 (1)
Harvard 147 1
Penn 178 (5)
Brown 183 5
Cornell 184 1
Yale 189 5
Dartmouth 264 4
Average OCC 173 3
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-15-24 12:35 AM - Post#361685
In response to CM
The Ivy Alumnae contributing in #9 USC's 73-65 win over #2 UCLA ... could move to #5 in the polls with all the losses ... Ivies 3 teams in top 100 - PAC 12 - 4 teams ranked in top 10
https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basket ball/box...
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