UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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12-12-23 07:12 PM - Post#360581
Ivies are 11 among conferences. Roughly the best ranking among the nonprofessional leagues. The Ivy Champ would be a factor in a potential 1AA championship.
The four best offensive teams (includes Penn) are at the 20th percentile of all offenses. The best Ivy teams can score on anybody.
The four best defensive teams are at the 36th percentile. Does not include Penn. Apparently defense rewards athleticism more than offense.
Penn lost the most minutes last year, twice the league average. Harvard is next.
Penn has gained the twice the league average minutes from freshmen. Harvard has the most.
Donahue is to be congratulated for fielding a competitive team this year despite the losses from last year.
Offense is almost as good despite the loss of Dingle and Martz 107 compared to 80 last year.
Defense as fallen. 288 from 216. They miss Monroe, Martz, and Max in the middle.
3% is better 45 – 64
Turnovers are better, but still ordinary 208 – 235
Offensive boards are great 77 – 131
You guessed it FT% is MUCH worse 326 – 89
Change that and are they win the three OT games.
The weak sophomore class is the the reason why the team is not better. Soph minutes are but 36% of the league average.
Princeton, Yale and Cornell are peaking. Harvard and Columbia are on the rise. Penn is in neutral. Brown and Dartmouth are not credible.
Princeton is ranked 52, Dartmouth is at 302, What a range!
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: End of Fall Review
12-13-23 01:05 PM - Post#360599
In response to UPIA1968
Not sure Yale is peaking. They are very talented, and came out of the gate looking good, but they aren’t playing very well right now. They clearly have the talent to right the ship.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
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End of Fall Review
12-13-23 02:01 PM - Post#360602
In response to SomeGuy
Thanks for the insight!
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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Re: End of Fall Review
12-13-23 11:22 PM - Post#360630
In response to SomeGuy
I mean Yale is peaking in 2024. They will lose much talent over the next few years and will have to rebuild. In contrast, Harvard is set for 2025 and beyond.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 431
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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12-14-23 09:02 AM - Post#360636
In response to UPIA1968
If that is what you meant by "peaking," not sure it
applies to Princeton. Lee and Pierce are sops.
Davis is a freshman.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32830
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-14-23 09:13 AM - Post#360638
In response to LocalTiger
And I don't know that Harvard has yet proven it is "set" for any time period as of now.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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12-14-23 11:45 PM - Post#360691
In response to palestra38
Off topic, but Harvard is interesting. For a few years they’ve badly underperformed their recruiting on paper. But just when we all start finally thinking they might really be a 6th place team, they start playing like a playoff team again. How the pieces fit matters a lot, and they’ve got a better mix this year.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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12-15-23 10:36 AM - Post#360700
In response to LocalTiger
Princeton loses a third of its minutes next year and will have little senior leadership. All but Cornell will have more experience next year.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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12-15-23 10:37 AM - Post#360701
In response to palestra38
Harvard has easily the most minutes from Frosh and Sophs this year. Apparently he is recruiting again
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32830
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-15-23 10:50 AM - Post#360702
In response to UPIA1968
Right, but we have no idea whether these guys can play winning basketball. They struggled against American, Army and Loyola--their last 3 games. I think the jury still is out on them. Calling them "set" is premature.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 431
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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12-15-23 11:06 AM - Post#360703
In response to UPIA1968
Princeton will return 6 of 8 rotation players,
and Austen should be back. We will miss
Allocco, but I would not say we are
rebuilding.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts: 336
Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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12-15-23 11:32 AM - Post#360705
In response to LocalTiger
Not rebuilding at all. Players already on the roster but not getting minutes will be ready to help. Henderson has some very good players coming in next year as well. How they will fit together is the issue but Mitch is hitting his stride on that regard.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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12-15-23 12:49 PM - Post#360708
In response to UPIA1968
That’s part of what is interesting. On paper, Harvard’s recruiting hasn’t changed much (it might even be a little worse). But the results are suddenly better.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32830
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-15-23 12:55 PM - Post#360709
In response to SomeGuy
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Harvard has one good win---against UMass. All their other wins are against losing teams. They will be stepping up in the Ivies.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-15-23 03:25 PM - Post#360713
In response to palestra38
Right, but we have no idea whether these guys can play winning basketball. They struggled against American, Army and Loyola--their last 3 games. I think the jury still is out on them. Calling them "set" is premature.
Their last 3 games aren't fully representative. They lost their 6'10" 255 athletic Center Justice Ajogbor to injury and he didn't play any of those games. Kid is a beast in some of the games I watched of them. As a full time starter he is a problem (last year playing only half the mintues he was #1 in block % in Ivy's and 26 in the country). In first 6 games his block rate was 11% (for comparison, Spinoso's is 6.8). He is supposed to be back in January and makes a BIG difference from what I saw. Kid will be a problem in Ivy's if healthy.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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12-15-23 03:25 PM - Post#360714
In response to UPIA1968
While Princeton loses more minutes than anyone but Cornell, I don’t think anyone loses that much next year. Princeton loses Allocco, but with Pierce, Peters, and Lee they’ll have plenty of experience, and the talent is very good behind them. The league overall is young and should be getting better going forward, not worse. Unless Dingle is a harbinger of more undergrad transfers.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-15-23 03:29 PM - Post#360715
In response to SomeGuy
For the record, not saying Harvard is be all, end all. They are very thin, as the last 3 games showed. But if they have healthy starting 5, they will be a challenging out for everyone.
Interesting start. Seems to me Princeton, Harvard, Penn, Columbia, Cornell are better than expected, Brown and Yale worse than expected, and Dartmouth about as expected. Will be interesting to see how the season plays out.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-15-23 03:31 PM - Post#360716
In response to SomeGuy
While Princeton loses more minutes than anyone but Cornell, I don’t think anyone loses that much next year. Princeton loses Allocco, but with Pierce, Peters, and Lee they’ll have plenty of experience, and the talent is very good behind them. The league overall is young and should be getting better going forward, not worse. Unless Dingle is a harbinger of more undergrad transfers.
Based on play to date, seems to me we will have one of the biggest losses with Clark graduating. We have plenty of guards, but not yet near his level or can do what he can do. Haven't seen anything yet to believe we have someone else who can create their own shot like he can (not really Perkins or Brown's game per se, at least yet).
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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12-15-23 06:38 PM - Post#360717
In response to Mike Porter
You guys are mostly on point about Harvard.
Freshmen: The absences of Evan Nelson, Sam Silverstein and Josh Hemmings probably knocked out two starters and a 6th or 7th guy. For that reason, Mack is getting tons of minutes and two freshmen forwards were coming off the bench early (Batties and Ace Nasteski). Now that Justice Ajogbor has been out for 3 games, those two freshmen join Chisom Okpara as the only frontcourt options. Thus, Harvard has been grossly outrebounded those past three games.
Assuming Ajogbor returns for early January and the league slate as expected, Harvard can be competitive, but there is little depth beyond Ajogbor, Okpara, Lesmond, Pigge and Mack. Batties is nice surprise as a freshman. Otherwise, the question becomes how badly needing to play Wojcik at PG burn us.
The observation that this squad is punching above its weight seems accurate to me. Somehow, the chemistry is better - as was the three point shooting, lack of TO's, and defense, at least for the first seven games.
I don't see this Harvard team finishing ahead of Princeton, Yale or Cornell, maybe not even winning a game againt any of them. That means a lot has to go right for the Crimson to slip into the 4th slot. If there are any health issues, this is a 6th or 7th place squad.
In view of the foregoing, I'm hoping Tommy can bring in a center to replace Ajogbor because a backcourt of Nelson and Mack will be really strong.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-17-23 09:54 AM - Post#360722
In response to SomeGuy
SomeGuy, I think you’re under appreciating Martini. Without his muscle and hustle and timely three point shooting, I don’t think we’d have had the non conference run that we’ve enjoyed this year. He’s probably the most under-rated player on the team and I think he is part of the reason that Caden is putting up his incredible numbers.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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12-17-23 06:03 PM - Post#360727
In response to TigerFan
Didn’t mean to leave Martini out — he certainly matters. The mix will be different next year. I assume Huggins plays a lot more, which means a huge gain in rebounding and a huge drop in 3 point shooting from that spot.
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