JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-02-24 09:39 PM - Post#361149
The 39th edition of the Ivy Women’s basketball 56-game 62-day round robin commences this Saturday.
The Ivies went 53-43 in D1 out of conference games, 10-15 vs. the Power 6 – currently the 11th best NCAA Net Conference. Using NCCA NET as the ranking (as it’s what the NCAA uses to consider teams for post season and the only the Ivy Tiebreaker source), the Ivies have three top 100 teams (37.5%) - the only Mid-Major conference that is higher on a percentage basis is the A10 [15] is higher at 40%. Only 10 Power 6 schools are not in the Top 100!
Team NET
Princeton 51
Columbia 67
Harvard 71
Brown 153
Penn 204
Cornell 216
Yale 249
Dartmouth 324
Her Hoops Stats in general on the same page as the NET, except for Brown & Penn. I mention Her Hoops Stats (HHS), as it is the source I use for stats and the site provides projected results.
HHS & NET both see the world in two tiers: a three team race for first and a four-team race for the final Ivy Madness spot. But as none of the top three teams has been as dominant in 23-24 as they were in 22-23, I believe there will be more 60-40 games than projected by the models, and anyone could lose on either 15 or 16 March.
HHS has a win probability for each game and who is favored by an expected score – both tiers are vey close
Team Expected Ws Favored
Princeton 11.65 12
Columbia 11.61 13
Harvard 10.55 11
Penn 5.91 7
Brown 5.40 5
Yale 4.52 4
Cornell 4.47 4
Dartmouth 1.90 0
Based on the out of conference results, Columbia, Harvard & Princeton are all deserving of being ranked Top 100 NCAA NET – and with All-Ivy Talent, 5th year player experience, depth, success in the out of conferences campaign, recent post season successes, coaching – seemingly too much consistency not to make Ivy Madness.
• I believe all three could end the season as WBIT eligible, but only perhaps a 14-0/13-1 Princeton team, who still has the core of teams that almost twice made the sweet 16, could maintain a low 40 NCAA NET after an Ivy Madness loss and overcome the NCAA Tournament Committee’s Power 6 favoritism
Today, I would not expect any team to earn an at large bid, as I do not see anyone going 14-0 or even 13-1 – I believe a two-way tie at 12-2 or 11-3 is more likely than a two-way tie at 13-1 or any team at 14-0.
• Columbia, with Ivy Madness on their home-court, has the slight advantage for the NCAAs, but they will also face the increased NCAA tournament expectation of winning at home. Currently Columbia at home would be a 4.1-point favorite over Princeton and a 7.1-point favorite over Harvard – double digits over the remining five.
• Key games for the likely #1 seed:
13 January Princeton at Harvard
20 January Columbia at Princeton
2 February Harvard at Columbia
17 February Columbia at Harvard
24 February Princeton at Columbia
1 March Harvard at Princeton
• The loss of Harmoni Turner makes it harder to place the Crimson at the same level as the Lions and Tigers. But Harvard has played very well coming out of exams, such that even without Turner they appear to have enough firepower to be closer to second than fourth.
Unlike the out of conference season where opponents may not have enough film or time between games to prepare, in season everyone should know what players and teams want to do, and the 62-day Ivy Season affords the time for players to rest and develop, injures to heal and coaches add to their offensive sets and defensive schemes.
I believe Brown and Penn are both in the next tier – with third to fifth as the likely range – Brown is building on their good 22-23 play and with their Big East wins has the higher tie breaking NET ranking. Penn, who played a lot of players with under 400 min of college experience and did not have Floor Toonders early is favored by Her Hoops Stats. Both metrics are backwards looking – stating the obvious: the Ivy Madness representative will come down to the team with the best player development, coaching strategy and most consistent play over the next 14 games – and of course the better bit of luck.
• Two key matchups – if one team can sweep, it should be very hard for the other team to make up two games in the loss column:
2 February Brown at Penn – 1st game of a back-to-back
17 February Penn at Brown – 2nd game of a back-to-back
Best possible chance for a Top 3 upset for both teams: Home game vs. Harvard
Most likely Trap Games for both teams: At Cornell & At Yale
• Scheduling Advantage: Slightly to Penn – as Brown is only favored twice in the first seven games and Penn is favored four times … so Brown may have the added pressure of playing catchup to make fourth.
At the midway point - Penn is expected to be ahead of Brown. The top 3 being close to clinching Ivy Madness tickets.
Team Favored first 7 games
Princeton 6
Columbia 6
Harvard 6
Penn 4
Brown 2
Cornell 2
Yale 2
Dartmouth 0
Penn has five of their starting eight at home – three of the four two game weekends have the second game at home. Plus they play Harvard at home as part of a women’s-men’s doubleheader.
Brown only has two home games (one Harvard) in their starting five. I feel they need to win on the road and be 4-1 / 5-0 headed into Penn on 2 February – as that starts a killer seven-game gauntlet (including two back-to-backs) of Penn-Princeton-Columbia-P rinceton-Penn-Harvard-Col umbia.
Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale all dangerous to pull a few upsets, we will haveto see if any have consistency to compete or / make Ivy Madness.
• Cornell is playing better then expectations, and the trip to Ithaca is always a challenge. – likely sixth or seventh
• Dartmouth is also playing better than expectations, so someone could fall trap to a hot Big Green on a cold winter night. They are headed in the right direction, but still likely eight.
• Yale is playing worse than expectations, but as they just showed vs. Quinnipiac they have the talent (especially in their all Ivy backcourt) to make Ivy Madness, so they all could cause a few upsets. But they only have ten players, so Ivy weekends will be very hard on this team – especially with the Ps being two of them. I could see them finishing fourth to seventh.
Interesting scheduling quirks: The 2024 Ivy schedule, despite being 10 weeks, does not space out game between common opponents. The teams will play their Game1 opponent in Game 5 – before they play three other Ivies. Ivy Weekend 1: Games 6 & 7 are reversed in Ivy Weekend 2: Games 9 & 10. Also interesting is Ivy Weekend 3 (Games 12 & 13): Four teams will have men’s & women’s home doubleheaders – but not against the same Ivy pair.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
01-03-24 09:17 AM - Post#361166
In response to JDP
I believe the Harvard team starting the Ivy schedule is not the same one that is represented in the non-conference statistics. They have not beaten a quality opponent since Turner went down. Not only was she having a POY level season, she played the position that is arguably the hardest to replace. I could easily see them sliding out of Ivy madness contention.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-03-24 08:22 PM - Post#361208
In response to CM
I was back and forth on where to slot Harvard. In the end I feel I punted by placing the Crimson with Columbia & Princeton, but said Harvard’s range is third to fifth. Some insights into the deliberation:
The case for slotting Harvard with Brown & Penn: Immediately after Turner’s injury in Week 5, the Crimson lost at then 138 NET Maine 79-61 (A Maine team Penn beat at home 72-69) and then the Crimson lost to then 236 NET Boston U 80-77. Harvard went from a 61 NET to a 94 NET.
The case for slotting Harvard with Columbia & Princeton: Last week, during Week 8, the Crimson lost to then 76 NET Rhode Island 59-56. Princeton lost to the Rams by a similar margin 60-58. The Crimson then blew out then 173 Delaware 88-58. Harvard went from an 89 NET to a 70 NET.
In contemplating where Harvard may have been if it were not for Turner’s injury, they were beating Michigan and may have been the regular season favorite. Given the Week 8 results, I felt the Crimson are still closer to Columbia & Princeton then Brown & Penn.
Given early season games with Princeton, Brown & Penn – we will quickly be able to revise the calibration.
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PeteD
Masters Student
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Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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01-04-24 08:38 PM - Post#361258
In response to JDP
Yes, the loss of Turner hurts, but I see Harvard as the clear third best team right now behind Columbia.
The 4th spot looks wide open, but I’d put Brown down as the pre-season favorite over Penn and Cornell.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-04-24 08:38 PM - Post#361259
In response to JDP
A much more eloquent women's preview:
https://www.thenexthoops.com/ncaaw/mid-majors/stor ...
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PeteD
Masters Student
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Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
01-04-24 10:02 PM - Post#361261
In response to JDP
JDP: Could you post the win probabilities (per HHS) for the Lions and Tigers for each game?
I ask because I ran my own numbers to determine the probability of a 14-0, 13-1, etc. record for each.
Edited by PeteD on 01-04-24 10:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-05-24 08:16 AM - Post#361269
In response to PeteD
I've had the chance to watch complete games of Harvard, Brown, and Penn in their non-conference games and they each have certain issues which could keep them from being, in my mind, the clear cut third ranked team in the league.
-Harvard didn't just lose Turner's points, her injury left them without a functional point guard. Both of their remaining best player - Mullaney and Rodriquez - thrive with a good passer/organizer to get them the ball. Opposing team pressing up on Harvard once they get over half court could effectively remove Mullaney and Rodriguez as threats.
-Brown has flashes of being quite good followed very quickly by flashes of terrible decision making that undo their chances. Kyla Jones is their leading scorer but her iso heavy game will not age well, I fear, when Ivy coaches can prepare for it. In the USF game she single handedly squelched their comeback with some terrible tunnel vision turnovers - she has 2x as many TOs as assists on the season. As well, Mauricio is so undersized I think most coaches will go right at her to play her off the floor. To me, the more Arnolie is used as the hub of the team the better they'll play.
-Penn can score a lot of points but they also give up a lot of points. Obi's variable motor is a real problem, she goes through long periods where she looks uninterested in playing hard. Gayle is a legit bucket but isn't much of a distributor and remains an inefficient scorer. Almqvist can really score if the other team allows her to get to her right hand in the lane, but I'd imagine opposing coaches will solve that quite quickly.
All this is to say whoever comes third behind Columbia and Princeton figures to be well behind.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
01-05-24 12:21 PM - Post#361282
In response to PeteD
Updated as of 3 Jan:
Columbia – only underdog at Princeton (Game 4)
Penn 80.1 - 59.2
Cornell 78.5 - 54.9
Yale 80.3 - 56.8
Princeton 62.6 - 66.8
Penn 75.8 - 62.0
Harvard 73.8 - 66.8
Dartmouth 77.3 - 47.8
Brown 78.3 - 56.8
Dartmouth 73.2 - 49.5
Harvard 70.1 - 70.0
Princeton 67.7 - 63.5
Brown 73.7 - 58.8
Yale 76.8 - 59.5
Cornell 74.3 - 57.1
Columbia win probabilities
Penn 0.94
Cornell 0.97
Yale 0.96
Princeton 0.36
Penn 0.87
Harvard 0.72
Dartmouth 0.99
Brown 0.95
Dartmouth 0.98
Harvard 0.51
Princeton 0.64
Brown 0.89
Yale 0.91
Cornell 0.92
Total 11.59
Princeton – only underdog at Harvard (Game 2) & at Columbia (Game 11)
Cornell 67.0 - 51.6
Harvard 63.1 - 63.4
Dartmouth 66.1 - 44.5
Columbia 66.8 - 62.6
Cornell 70.5 - 48.2
Yale 72.2 - 50.0
Brown 70.4 - 49.9
Penn 68.4 - 56.2
Brown 66.6 - 53.2
Yale 69.2 - 53.7
Columbia 63.5 - 67.7
Harvard 66.1 - 59.2
Dartmouth 69.3 - 41.5
Penn 71.9 - 52.1
Princeton win probabilities
Cornell 0.92
Harvard 0.49
Dartmouth 0.98
Columbia 0.65
Cornell 0.97
Yale 0.97
Brown 0.96
Penn 0.86
Brown 0.89
Yale 0.91
Columbia 0.36
Harvard 0.74
Dartmouth 0.99
Penn 0.95
Total 11.64
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 12:33 PM - Post#361283
In response to CM
All good developmental points - I believe 3-5 all will be based on which teams evolve the most over the next 14 games ... I also believe Yale, with their All-Ivy backcourt, could be still relevant.
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LocalTiger
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01-05-24 12:45 PM - Post#361284
In response to JDP
surprising that Princeton is underdog
at Harvard. I would make that bet.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 01:18 PM - Post#361286
In response to LocalTiger
The line has moved around that game- Princeton was slightly favored - to a pick em - to now Harvard +0.3
I expect the recent at Rhode Island game losses for both teams (Princeton 58-60 loss & Harvard 56-59 loss) influences the model. HHS tends to give the home team +7 points advantage to start.
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PeteD
Masters Student
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Loc: California
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01-05-24 02:20 PM - Post#361289
In response to JDP
Interesting to see, thanks for posting. The one that is most surprising to me is Columbia 64% at home vs Princeton. The Tigers have dominated in Levien in recent years. I understand HHS probably doesn’t take that into consideration, but still surprising. I think some of the other win probabilities for Columbia are a little high, but pretty close to the numbers that I had.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-05-24 03:16 PM - Post#361290
In response to JDP
Have you watched Yale play this year? Their team chemistry is brutal. They cannot stop anybody and for such an experienced team they play with very little cohesion. A team that returned their entire roster should be much better than they have been, and there must be a reason for that.
I could see Yale finishing 8th.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 03:45 PM - Post#361292
In response to CM
Perhaps its too many recent Eagles losses against low win teams shading my views ... if any of the projected bottom three make their way into the Brown / Harvard / Penn mix, my best guess is Yale with their all-ivy backcourt ... then again, when a team is in a downward spiral - and they have the potential to start the Ivies 1-6 - who knows about the last seven.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 04:04 PM - Post#361294
In response to PeteD
In looking at Actual Margin - HHS Predicted Margin ... the range is 100: -60 to +40 with a median of 3 (HHS underestimating the Ivies). Their model is improving, as the average error is down to 1.5 - was as high as 6.6
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-06-24 02:27 PM - Post#361309
In response to JDP
One of the early nice surprises is that Harmoni Turner is back on the court for Harvard - 12 points already.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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01-06-24 03:13 PM - Post#361317
In response to JDP
And so is Malik Mack.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-06-24 05:50 PM - Post#361358
In response to JDP
I cannot remember a team saying a player was out for the year and then that player returns within 6 weeks. No knee brace, no hitch in her gait at all. In fact, she went crazy on Yale. Super curious what happened.
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PeteD
Masters Student
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01-07-24 04:30 AM - Post#361387
In response to CM
Was thinking the same thing… glad she’s back, but wonder what happened. Harmoni reposted on Twitter on Dec 11 that her injury would require surgery.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-07-24 06:55 AM - Post#361390
In response to PeteD
She played so well, it was incredible. If she can make a run at Ivy POY, which seems totally in play, it would be one of the better stories in WBB.
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Columbia 37P6
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01-07-24 10:37 AM - Post#361396
In response to CM
Someone must have given Turner the wrong medical diagnosis that her injury required surgery. For her sake, we can all be grateful that proved not to be the case.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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01-07-24 02:35 PM - Post#361409
In response to Columbia 37P6
Apparently she isn't seeing the same physician that Seth Towns did. Seth was supposed to return and did - years later and in Ohio.
Chris Ledlum actually did return after a similar injury, but was eventually shut down.
We kept waiting for Bryce Aiken's return, which occured at Seton Hall.
I remember seeing Siyani Chambers wheeling a handcart in the Eliot House courtyard the day before it was announced he'd be out for the season.
Justice Ajogbor has been out of his cast for at least 10 days now, but didn't dress against Princeton.
I've given up.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-07-24 03:11 PM - Post#361412
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Week 1
Games went according to expectation for Ws & Ls.
NCAA at large: Princeton is likely on bubble
WBIT: Columbia, Harvard, Princeton
WNIT: Brown
The win expectations remain the same with the expectations of Brown & Penn flipping.
Team Expected Wins
Princeton 11.9
Columbia 11.5
Harvard 10.7
Brown 6.1
Penn 5.9
Yale 4.4
Cornell 3.9
Dartmouth 1.6
The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:
Brown improved by 9 with a 26 point win over Dartmouth (expectation was 6)
Princeton improved by 7 with a 41 point win over Cornell (expectation was 15)
Harvard improved by 1 with a 19 point win over Yale (expectation was 19)
Columbia fell by a 4 with a 13 point win over Penn (expectation was 21)
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/spo...
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 142 -9
Columbia 68 4
Cornell 240 25
Dartmouth 330 8
Harvard 76 -1
Penn 197 -3
Princeton 43 -7
Yale 247 2
Overall 168 2
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-14-24 12:36 PM - Post#361651
In response to JDP
Week 2
Games went according to expectation for Ws & Ls.
• Princeton’s 23 point margin of victory at Harvard, was impressive as the models suggested a pickem. The Tigers have started the Ivy season much better than their early December stretch where the results were much closer
• Brown & Penn both got road wins in trap games … The Bears built a nice lead early and hung on … The Quakers struggled early, but played a good second half … any road win as a good win.
NCAA (68) at large: Princeton at a 41 NET is still likely on bubble given ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 46 NET
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton – current projected bubble 90 NET
WNIT (48): Brown – current projected bubble 145 NET – expect to increase to high 160s as high NET teams with losing records increases
The win expectations generally remain the same with the exception of Princeton improving by a half game – reflecting their very good start – but games favored remain the same … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.4 13
Columbia 11.5 13
Harvard 10.0 10
Brown 6.6 7
Penn 6.4 7
Yale 3.9 3
Cornell 3.8 3
Dartmouth 1.4 0
The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:
Penn improved by 7 with a 14 point win over Dartmouth (expectation was 8)
Brown improved by 5 with a 5 point win over Yale (expectation was 1)
Princeton improved by 2 with a 23 point win over Harvard (expectation was pickem) = the Crimson only dropped 2 spots – showing how hard it is to improve in the top 40, even when you beat a top 100 team, and that you do not fall that much either
Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET
School NET GoG (- good)
Princeton 41 -2
Columbia 70 -1
Harvard 80 2
Brown 137 -5
Penn 186 -7
Cornell 244 3
Yale 252 5
Dartmouth 328 -1
Overall 167 -1
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-16-24 09:05 PM - Post#361788
In response to JDP
Week 2 – Game 3 – 21% complete
Games again went according to expectation for Ws & Ls. And the expected tiering is emerging.
Princeton & Columbia are the two best teams with Harvard in third with Brown and Penn in a close battle for fourth and who may have the best tiebreaker. If the Bears or Quakers can sweep their regular season meetings, it would be unlikely the other could win three more to avoid the tiebreaker process.
Next week the two most important matchups are when the Lions visit the Tigers and the Quakers travel to the Crimson.
NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 40 NET is still likely on bubble given ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 46 NET
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton – current projected bubble 90 NET
WNIT (48): Brown – current projected bubble 145 NET – expect to increase to high 160s as high NET teams with losing records increases
The win expectations generally remain the same with Brown & Penn flipping spots … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.4 13
Columbia 11.7 13
Harvard 10.3 10
Penn 6.7 7
Brown 6.3 7
Yale 3.7 3
Cornell 3.6 3
Dartmouth 1.4 0
The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:
Penn improved by 8 with a 13 point win over Cornell (expectation was 9 by HHS and 10.5 by ESPN)
Brown dropped by 13 with a 14 point loss at Harvard (expectation was 9 point loss by HHS and 10.5 by ESPN)
Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 146 13
Columbia 67 -4
Cornell 249 2
Dartmouth 328 -1
Harvard 75 -4
Penn 179 -8
Princeton 40 0
Yale 252 1
Overall 167 0
A quick update as to who is starting the Ivy Season hot – PER > 15 & Min > 20. Not surpassing to see so many Tigers and Lions.
PLAYER TEAM PER PTS
Harmoni Turner Harvard 34.8 17.7
Madison St. Rose Princeton 32.2 16.7
Cecelia Collins Columbia 29.4 14.0
Elena Rodriguez Harvard 27.4 10.3
Abbey Hsu Columbia 25.7 19.3
Stina Almqvist Penn 25.2 19.3
Skye Belker Princeton 24.9 8.7
Kitty Henderson Columbia 23.2 12.3
Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 21.9 11.0
Ellie Mitchell Princeton 21.8 5.3
Who are the top freshman PER > 10 & Min > 15
PLAYER TEAM PER PTS
Riley Weiss Columbia 25.2 10.3
Skye Belker Princeton 24.9 8.7
Abigail Wright Harvard 22.3 6.7
Mataya Gayle Penn 14.4 10.0
Ese Ogbevire Penn 14.1 6.3
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-21-24 10:43 AM - Post#361941
In response to CM
At some point in the second halves of their games, Columbia, Cornell and Dartmouth were all favored by ESPN to win. But for the fourth consecutive time, no Ivy Women’s upsets.
Princeton has been the clear best team over the first four games. And with their large wins over the likely 2-3 Ivy Madness matchup (Columbia & Harvard), plus their NET advantage – not saying they have mathematically locked up the first seed – but given the Ivy tiebreaker logic, for either the Crimson or Lions to be the first seed, the Tigers will need at least two losses. The only remaining game where Princeton is not favored, their game at Columbia.
Second and third currently appear to be a battle between Columbia and Harvard … The order does not matter, as the Lions will have home court. Their primary focus should be to avoid falling to fourth.
The race for the last Ivy Madness spot continues to be between Brown and Penn. The Bears can likely play for the split in the meetings. The Quakers most likely path to fourth is by sweeping the season matchup.
Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale round out the league at 1-11.
Game 5 next week is the flipside of the Game 1 contests,
NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 37 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42 NET
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton safely in – current projected bubble 90 NET
WNIT (48): Brown (145 NET) – current projected bubble 157 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases. Penn is likely on the bubble
The win expectations generally remain the same with Brown & Penn flipping spots … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.8 13
Columbia 11.2 12
Harvard 10.4 11
Brown 6.8 7
Penn 6.6 7
Yale 3.8 3
Cornell 3.1 3
Dartmouth 1.3 0
The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:
Princeton improved by 3 with a there 15 point win over Columbia – which fell by 6
Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 145 -4
Columbia 71 5
Cornell 253 6
Dartmouth 325 -4
Harvard 78 1
Penn 170 -3
Princeton 37 -3
Yale 258 5
Overall 167 0
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-28-24 12:21 PM - Post#362310
In response to JDP
January games finish with the favoreds still winning, and after five game the standings are as one would have expected.
Princeton has been the clear best team in January and most likely 1st seed.
Second and third currently continue to appear to be a battle between Columbia and Harvard … Likely edge to the Lions, but the order does not matter, as Columbia will have home court.
The race for the last Ivy Madness spot continues to be between Brown and Penn. Next Friday’s game at the Palestra, given the NET tiebreaker, is far more important for the Quakers than Brown.
Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale round out the League at 1-14. In the post Covid era – the bottom three teams are 15-84 with only two wins against the top five teams (both vs. the 4th seed).
NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 36 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42-44 NET
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton all safely in – current projected bubble 91 NET
WNIT (48): Brown (154 NET) – current projected bubble 156 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases. Penn (192) has improve it NET 25-30
The win expectations generally remain the same with Columbia now being favored at Harvard … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Princeton is 1st over Columbia due to a better NET, and Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even though both are projected at 7-7.
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.9 13
Columbia 11.5 13
Harvard 10.4 10
Brown 6.9 7
Penn 6.3 7
Yale 3.8 3
Cornell 2.9 3
Dartmouth 1.3 0
Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 154 11
Columbia 64 -7
Cornell 257 9
Dartmouth 315 -10
Harvard 78 0
Penn 192 16
Princeton 34 -2
Yale 250 -9
Overall 168 1
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1890
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-29-24 10:20 PM - Post#362370
In response to JDP
Princeton women have just cracked the AP Top 25. FWIW, Charlie Creme from ESPN has the Tigers pulling a #10 seed in his bracketology this week.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-30-24 05:04 PM - Post#362415
In response to TigerFan
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2024/1/30/24055843...
Still feel Princeton is the only a second team possibility - Doubt Columbia can increase enough in the NET to be at large ... to do so, likely means they beating the Tigers by a lot, dropping Princeton's NET in the process.
NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 36 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42-44 NET
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
02-03-24 10:27 AM - Post#362650
In response to CM
The favored won Game 6 – the meta game is in the relative NET movements
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 167 16
Columbia 61 -2
Cornell 255 -2
Dartmouth 318 5
Harvard 83 2
Penn 172 -17
Princeton 32 0
Yale 250 0
Overall 167 0
In looking at the most likely paths:
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.9 13
Columbia 11.8 13
Harvard 10.0 10
Penn 7.0 8
Brown 6.3 6
Yale 3.7 3
Cornell 3.3 3
Dartmouth 1.0 0
For #1 Seed … Princeton favored over Columba: While Columbia is a slight favorite at home to Princeton – and both are favored in every other game – I do not expect the Lions will catch the Tigers in the NET
For #2 Seed … Columbia ... the win over Harvard last night, and being a favorite over Princeton in a game, gives the Lions many more paths
For #3 Seed … Harvard … I do not see any potential 4 seed catching the Crimson on NET
For #4 Sees … Penn has more paths than Brown: If the Quakers sweep the Bears (next game 17 Feb at Brown – and while the game is still a toss-up the Penn became the technical favorite by 0.2 from a 1.9 road underdog), Brown’s path to fourth, while mathematically possible, would require multiple upsets – so a must win for the Bears and while not a “must” win for Penn, it’s the next level down of terminology.
If the teams split, the tie breakers will now first look Ivy seed by seed to see if any team has a better record. Most likely case, both teams finish 7-7. No wins vs top 3 and 6 wins vs. bottom 3.
So the most likely tiebreaker is NET: Here is where the size of Penn win (21 when they were favored by 4) was criterial, as it moved the Quarter’s NET -17 to 172 and the Bears +16 to 167. So from here on out, each team will be playing the NET game, and actual to expected point differential is crucial. I do not know who has the easier path to the better NET: Brown has five games where they are 15-20 point underdog, their style is not to play slow and keep the game in the 50s, which would be a strategy to cover the spread. Penn’s mix of point spreads is much tighter – so while they likely can win some by more, its also easier to lose by more.
Edited by JDP on 02-03-24 10:36 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 556
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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02-03-24 11:12 PM - Post#362724
In response to JDP
Was Yale's win at the Palestra the first real upset so far? That was a shocker, and gives a boost to Brown's chances for the #4 seed. Needless to say, the Penn/Brown matchup in Providence will be huge.
The Top 3 appear locked in right now, although Elena Rodriguez went down with an injury on Friday night at Levien and did not play today in Harvard's win at Cornell. Krupa and Zaric seem very capable, but the loss of Rodriguez for any length of time would be tough on the Crimson.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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02-04-24 09:52 AM - Post#362733
In response to PeteD
Great win for Yale, a team that has been in freefall all season despite returning nearly its entire team from a year ago. Meanwhile Penn looks sluggish and disjointed, in general, with only glimmers of fire or fight. The gap between the top three in the Ivy and everyone else is cavernous and getting wider.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-04-24 02:05 PM - Post#362761
In response to CM
At the halfway point – and pretty much to script, except the Penn loss to Yale, which was the only upset in the first 28 games.
From the first seven, the first three seeds look to be Princeton, Columbia, Harvard.
Fourth is still a toss-up with Yale now having more paths to fourth. But the Penn at Brown game on Saturday 17 Feb now appears to must win game to become an Ivy Madness participant.
Interestingly enough, since the start of Ivy Madness, the fifth-place team (29-31) has a better record against the 1-2-3-6-7 place teams then the fourth place (24-36) with 8 wins over 1-3 vs. only 6 wins for 4th place. Where is the differential: the 4th place team is 10-2 vs. the fifth-place team. Cleary showing how powerful sweeps are in the tiebreaking process.
NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 31 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42-44 NET
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton all safely in – current projected bubble 90 NET – but the Crimson (84) have been drifting towards the bubble
WNIT (48): Brown (163 NET) – current projected bubble 163 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases.
The favored is for the renaming games
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 13.0 6
Columbia 11.8 7
Harvard 10.1 5
Brown 6.3 3
Penn 6.1 3
Yale 4.6 2
Cornell 3.1 2
Dartmouth 1.0 0
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 163 -4
Columbia 64 3
Cornell 253 -2
Dartmouth 310 -8
Harvard 84 1
Penn 183 11
Princeton 31 -1
Yale 245 -5
Overall 167 -1
Just an update on out of conference NETs
Princeton 116
Columbia 135
Harvard 147
Penn 163
Brown 175
Yale 186
Cornell 194
Dartmouth 252
Average OCC 168
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
02-09-24 05:55 PM - Post#362922
In response to JDP
A few mid way stats:
Top 20 players by PER (play min 20 min per game) - dominated by Columbia & Princeton:
SEASON PLAYER TEAM PER
2023-24 Cecelia Collins Columbia 30.2
2023-24 Harmoni Turner Harvard 28.9
2023-24 Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 28.9
2023-24 Abbey Hsu Columbia 28.4
2023-24 Chet Nweke Princeton 28.1
2023-24 Madison St. Rose Princeton 26.5
2023-24 Ellie Mitchell Princeton 26
2023-24 Kitty Henderson Columbia 25.6
2023-24 Katie Krupa Harvard 25.4
2023-24 Skye Belker Princeton 23.9
2023-24 Elena Rodriguez Harvard 23.2
2023-24 Stina Almqvist Penn 21.4
2023-24 Mataya Gayle Penn 19.7
2023-24 Grace Arnolie Brown 18.5
2023-24 Brenna McDonald Yale 17.9
2023-24 Jordan Obi Penn 17.8
2023-24 Nyla McGill Yale 17.1
2023-24 Kyla Jones Brown 16.8
2023-24 Emily Pape Cornell 16.4
2023-24 Summer Parker-Hall Cornell 14.9
Top Freshman by PER
SEASON PLAYER TEAM PER
2023-24 Skye Belker Princeton 23.9
2023-24 Mataya Gayle Penn 19.7
2023-24 Fliss Henderson Columbia 11.1
2023-24 Olivia Young Brown 10.7
Players scoring more than 15 a game
SEASON PLAYER TEAM PTS
2023-24 Abbey Hsu Columbia 19.9
2023-24 Harmoni Turner Harvard 18.7
2023-24 Stina Almqvist Penn 15.9
2023-24 Madison St. Rose Princeton 15.4
2023-24 Cecelia Collins Columbia 15.4
2023-24 Grace Arnolie Brown 15.1
Players rebounding more than 7 a game
SEASON PLAYER TEAM TRB
2023-24 Ellie Mitchell Princeton 10.1
2023-24 Jordan Obi Penn 8.9
2023-24 Elena Rodriguez Harvard 7.7
2023-24 Stina Almqvist Penn 7.4
2023-24 Nyla McGill Yale 7.4
2023-24 Doreen Ariik Dartmouth 7
Best perimeter shooters - min 4 attempts per game
SEASON PLAYER TEAM 3P% 3P A
2023-24 Abbey Hsu Columbia 41.80% 7.9
2023-24 Katie Krupa Harvard 39.30% 4
2023-24 Riley Weiss Columbia 36.70% 4.3
2023-24 Grace Arnolie Brown 36.40% 7.9
2023-24 Isabella Mauricio Brown 36.20% 6.7
Edited by JDP on 02-09-24 05:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
02-11-24 01:16 PM - Post#363110
In response to JDP
Nothing much changed with Game 8 – Yale did manage to achieve its second consecutive upset, so they have placed themselves into the Seed 4 conversation. But not much really changed with Expected Wins or NET ratings
Team Expected Favored last 6
Princeton 13.1 5
Columbia 11.8 6
Harvard 10.2 4
Brown 6.3 3
Penn 6.0 3
Yale 5.1 2
Cornell 2.5 1
Dartmouth 1.0 0
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 166 3
Columbia 64 1
Cornell 257 4
Dartmouth 311 0
Harvard 85 0
Penn 182 0
Princeton 32 -1
Yale 243 -2
Overall 168 0
Next weekend is all about clarity on what Brown, Penn and Yale would have to do, or have happen to others to gain the 4th seed. No one will be mathematically eliminated – even if the Quakers sweep or are swept. What is mainly in play is the Ivy tie breakers – Yale can gain the 1st tier tiebreaker over Penn and Penn can gain the 1st tier tie breaker over Brown
NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 32 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line low 40s
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton all safely in – current projected bubble 93 NET – but the Crimson (85) have been drifting towards the bubble
WNIT (48): Brown (166 NET) – current projected bubble 169 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases.
Edited by JDP on 02-11-24 01:16 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-14-24 11:49 PM - Post#363210
In response to JDP
The complete Ivy Women's Tiebreaker Rules
https://ivyleague.com/sports/2024/2/13/WBB_ 0213243...
Fortunately, no schools are assigned the same NCAA NET, so the process will aways end at clause c and the smh clause d (draw shall be conducted by the Executive Director following the last contest of the regular season) will never be used.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-19-24 11:39 AM - Post#363531
In response to JDP
Seedings are close. to being set
#1 Seed: Princeton most likely - and a likely a NCAA large with a Ivy Madness loss ... perhaps even a regular season loss to C or H and a Ivy Madness loss
• Princeton: at Columbia, Harvard, Dartmouth, Penn – Her Hoop Stat (HHS) projection 3-1
• Columbia: Princeton, at Brown, at Yale, at Cornell – HHS projection 4-0
• Princeton (26 NET), even if they lose to Columbia (62), but win out, still likely has an insurmountable NET advantage over the Lions.
• Columbia to get the #1 seed, most likely needs to beat Princeton and then have one less loss than the Tigers in the remaining 3.
• The Lions will be rooting for Harvard to beat Princeton – but who does the Crimson want to play in the opening round of Ivy Madness – with a win Harvard would likely play a revenge game against Princeton and be a 7.6 point underdog with a 24% chance of winning on a neutral court, or with a loss they would likely face Columbia and be a 8.6 point underdog with a 24% chance of winning on a true “away” court. Perhaps a shade better odds facing the Lions in the Tournament opening round, as the fans of the winner (and some of the losers) of the 1-4 game will be rooting against the home court Lions?
#2 / #3 Seed: Not that it matters for the semifinal - Assuming Columbia #2 – Harvard #3
• Columbia: Princeton, at Brown, at Yale, at Cornell – HHS projection 4-0
• Harvard: Brown, at Princeton, at Penn, Dartmouth – HHS projection 3-1
• Harvard being swept by Columbia, needs to finish one game ahead of the Lions to be the second seed, and the Crimson are two behind in the loss column - so Columbia pretty much would need to lose out.
• If Harvard wants to make the WBIT- all four games do matter from a NET perspective – and at a 85 NET, Harvard is close to falling out with a bad loss.
#4 Seed: Brown has the clearest path
• Brown: At Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, Yale – HHS projection 2-2
• Penn: At Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, at Princeton, at Penn, Dartmouth – HHS projection 2-2
• What does Brown have to fear: Penn beating Harvard and/or Princeton to get to 7-7 or 8-6 and losing on tiebreaker #2 – record against Ivy opponents by seed.
• And the Bears will be underdogs to Harvard and Columbia – a 78% chance they lose both, and the Quakers will be favored over Cornell and Dartmouth – a 61% chance they win both – so a 48% chance Penn will have two shots to control its own destiny against Harvard (30% chance of a win) and Princeton (4% chase of a win)
• Yale is still in play, but they would need to win out (D, C, C, B) and thread a fine needle between Brown & Penn on the common opponents tiebreaker – the Eli would loose on NET.
School NET WoW (- good)
Brown 165 0
Columbia 62 -2
Cornell 259 2
Dartmouth 311 -1
Harvard 85 0
Penn 177 -5
Princeton 26 -6
Yale 257 15
Overall 168 0
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3054
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-21-24 11:25 AM - Post#363704
In response to JDP
Since I have a similar post for MBB, here is one for WBB.
After 10 games
1. Princeton 10-0 (NET 26)
2. Columbia 8-1 (NET 62)
3. Harvard 7-3 (NET 85)
4. Brown 5-5 (NET 165)
--------------------
5. Penn 4-6 (NET 177)
6. Yale 3-7 (NET 257)
7. Cornell 1-9 (NET 258)
7. Dartmouth 1-9 (NET 311)
Princeton
vs Columbia 1-0 (Game #2 away 2/24)
vs Harvard 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Brown 2-0
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)
Columbia
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Harvard 2-0
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Penn 2-0
vs Yale 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Dartmouth 2-0
Harvard
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/5)
Brown
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 away 2/24)
vs Penn 1-1
vs Yale (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Dartmouth 2-0
Penn
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Brown 1-1
vs Yale 1-1
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 away 2/24)
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
Yale
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Penn 1-1
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 0-1 (Game #2 away 2/24)
Cornell
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Penn 0-1 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Yale 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 1-1
Dartmouth
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/5)
vs Brown 0-2
vs Penn 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Yale 0-1 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Cornell 1-1
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-25-24 11:27 AM - Post#363969
In response to rbg
Three very exciting finishes bring us to the last three games of the season:
#1 Seed: Princeton
Most likely will be decided on NCAA Net as Columbia has a 75% chance of winning out and Princeton has an 80% chance. The Tigers NET fell to 29 after the loss and the Lions remained flat to 61.
Assuming Princeton wins out in the regular season, an at large bid should happen if the Tigers fall in Ivy Madness.
Columbia is rooting for Harvard, Dartmouth and or Penn!
#2/3 Seed: Columbia & Harvard
Most likely outcome – both teams are likely to make the WBIT if they do not win Ivy Madness
#4 Seed:
8-6: Brown is the front runner as they have a 5% chance to get to 8 wins, Penn has only a 1% chance to get to 8 wins. If both teams finish 8-6, Penn goes to Ivy Madness by virtue of wins over Princeton and Harvard.
7-7:
Brown is hoping the 65%+ probability that no one else gets to 7-7 holds, if someone else does, that team will have a better tie breaking win that the Bears, and that team (Penn or Yale) will go to Ivy Madness
Penn has about a 30% chance of reaching 7-7 – Wins at home over Dartmouth & Harvard are the best chance. But if the Bears lose to the Lions, the Quakers will have two opportunities (Harvard & Princeton) to reach 7-7 and go to Ivy Madness on tiebreakers.
Yale has about a 2% chance or reaching 7-7 – they need a sweep, which includes Columbia and Brown. In this Scenario, the Eli likely would go to Ivy Madness, unless Penn gets to 7-7 by beating Princeton (who should still be the #1 seed in that scenario)
6-8 / 5-9:
Still in play – would come down to who has the better NET between Brown, Penn or Yale
WNIT cutline is 172-177 range. Brown on WNIT bubble, but likely in. Penn on WNIT bubble.
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 165 -1
Columbia 61 -2
Cornell 263 6
Dartmouth 327 15
Harvard 87 1
Penn 173 -4
Princeton 29 2
Yale 246 -13
Overall 169 1
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3054
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-26-24 12:03 AM - Post#363999
In response to JDP
After 11 games
*1. Princeton 10-1 (NET 29)
*2. Columbia 10-1 (NET 61)
*3. Harvard 8-3 (NET 86)
4. Brown 5-6 (NET 165)
--------------------
4. Penn 5-6 (NET 173)
6. Yale 4-7 (NET 246)
&7. Cornell 1-10 (NET 263)
*7. Dartmouth 1-10 (NET 327)
* - clinched spot in Ivy Tournament
& - eliminated from Ivy Tournament
Princeton
vs Columbia 1-1
vs Harvard 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Brown 2-0
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)
Columbia
vs Princeton 1-1
vs Harvard 2-0
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Penn 2-0
vs Yale 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Dartmouth 2-0
Harvard
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Brown 2-0
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/5)
Brown
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Penn 1-1
vs Yale 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Dartmouth 2-0
Penn
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Brown 1-1
vs Yale 1-1
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
Yale
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Penn 1-1
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 2-0
Cornell
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Penn 0-2
vs Yale 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 1-1
Dartmouth
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/5)
vs Brown 0-2
vs Penn 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Yale 0-2
vs Cornell 1-1
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-02-24 12:28 PM - Post#364277
In response to rbg
Seeding Race – 2 Games 2 Go
1st & 2nd Princeton owns the NET tiebreaker over Columbia, 29 vs. 58. So the Tigers have inside track for first. Lions hoping Princeton loses to Dartmouth or Penn.
3rd Harvard technically not locked in yet as Penn has a 1 basis point probability of overtaking: Two Crimson losses (Penn & Dartmouth) and two Quaker wins (Harvard & Princeton)
4th The benefit of Ivy Madness is that the 4th – 6th place teams still have something to play for at the end of the season – which from the student athlete experience is meaningful and likely enhances player development.
Key Games tonight: Brown hosting Cornell, Penn hosting Harvard, Yale hosting Columbia
8-6: Only Penn can reach – wins over Harvard & Princeton – 1.4% chance
7-7: Three teams can reach (92.6% chance that the 4 seed will have 7 wins)
Brown is the most likely with wins over Cornell and Yale – 61% chance for the sweep. But the Bears do not control their own destiny
Penn is the next most likely, needing 1 win over either Harvard (31% chance) or Princeton (4% chance) or a 34% chance of 1 win … The Quaker would have a better win than the Bears and be the 4 seed
Yale still has a 2% chance of sweeping Columbia and Brown. In this scenario Brown would not have 7 wins and the only comparison could be to a 7-7 Penn. In this scenario, the Quakers would have to beat Princeton to have the better tiebreaker, else the Eli is the 4 seed.
6-8: Three teams can reach (6% chance)
Penn is already 6-8
Brown & Yale have to go 1-1. The Bear has a 35% chance and the Eli a 30% chance
5% chance: If Yale loses to Columbia but beats Brown, and Brown beats Cornell but loses to Yale to have a three-way tie for 6-8 – then the Tiebreaker will be NET. Currently Penn 163, Brown 165, Yale 246. Too close to say if it would be the Bears or the Quakers for the 4 seed.
1% chance: If Yale beats Columbia but loses to Brown, and Brown loses to Cornell but beats Yale – the other three-way tie. Brown is the 4 seed, as they would be 3-1 vs. the other two schools.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 556
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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03-02-24 08:35 PM - Post#364303
In response to JDP
Huge win for Penn today… looks like we’ll have a rematch of last year’s Ivy madness… Penn vs Princeton, followed by Harvard vs Columbia.
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