JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-02-24 12:28 PM - Post#364277
In response to rbg
Seeding Race – 2 Games 2 Go
1st & 2nd Princeton owns the NET tiebreaker over Columbia, 29 vs. 58. So the Tigers have inside track for first. Lions hoping Princeton loses to Dartmouth or Penn.
3rd Harvard technically not locked in yet as Penn has a 1 basis point probability of overtaking: Two Crimson losses (Penn & Dartmouth) and two Quaker wins (Harvard & Princeton)
4th The benefit of Ivy Madness is that the 4th – 6th place teams still have something to play for at the end of the season – which from the student athlete experience is meaningful and likely enhances player development.
Key Games tonight: Brown hosting Cornell, Penn hosting Harvard, Yale hosting Columbia
8-6: Only Penn can reach – wins over Harvard & Princeton – 1.4% chance
7-7: Three teams can reach (92.6% chance that the 4 seed will have 7 wins)
Brown is the most likely with wins over Cornell and Yale – 61% chance for the sweep. But the Bears do not control their own destiny
Penn is the next most likely, needing 1 win over either Harvard (31% chance) or Princeton (4% chance) or a 34% chance of 1 win … The Quaker would have a better win than the Bears and be the 4 seed
Yale still has a 2% chance of sweeping Columbia and Brown. In this scenario Brown would not have 7 wins and the only comparison could be to a 7-7 Penn. In this scenario, the Quakers would have to beat Princeton to have the better tiebreaker, else the Eli is the 4 seed.
6-8: Three teams can reach (6% chance)
Penn is already 6-8
Brown & Yale have to go 1-1. The Bear has a 35% chance and the Eli a 30% chance
5% chance: If Yale loses to Columbia but beats Brown, and Brown beats Cornell but loses to Yale to have a three-way tie for 6-8 – then the Tiebreaker will be NET. Currently Penn 163, Brown 165, Yale 246. Too close to say if it would be the Bears or the Quakers for the 4 seed.
1% chance: If Yale beats Columbia but loses to Brown, and Brown loses to Cornell but beats Yale – the other three-way tie. Brown is the 4 seed, as they would be 3-1 vs. the other two schools.
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