palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32830
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-25-24 05:00 PM - Post#362108
At Columbia, Brown, Yale and Princeton. If Penn loses all 4, which is certainly possible, it's over. And since the odds of beating Yale and Princeton on the road are slim (Yale) and none (Princeton), this Saturday looms very big.
Not optimistic, and Saturday looks to be an almost perfect day outside. Think it's a record and play it back fast.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next 4
01-25-24 07:36 PM - Post#362127
In response to palestra38
Not optimistic, and Saturday looks to be an almost perfect day outside. Think it's a record and play it back fast.
Yep, you're coming around the best option currently. The best part about this strategy is that if it goes poorly, you don't need to urinate yourself off by watching it and wasting time you could be doing something else.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-26-24 12:18 AM - Post#362136
In response to palestra38
I don’t think we’re done with 4 losses in the next 4. We’d still have only dumped one game we had to have (the Harvard game). And that one could still be made up later. If you presume everyone goes 0-6 against Princeton, Yale, and Cornell, it will only take 6 wins to get the 4th spot. That would still be reachable.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32830
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next 4
01-26-24 09:17 AM - Post#362142
In response to SomeGuy
The seasons in which the rest of the League go 0-6 against the top 3 are how many? I cannot imagine that it ever has happened. Too tough to win on the road in the Ivies. Even in the seasons where Penn and Princeton were miles above everyone, the 2nd place team would end up that way because of a loss to Dartmouth or Columbia.
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-26-24 03:18 PM - Post#362160
In response to palestra38
The seasons in which the rest of the League go 0-6 against the top 3 are how many? I cannot imagine that it ever has happened. Too tough to win on the road in the Ivies. Even in the seasons where Penn and Princeton were miles above everyone, the 2nd place team would end up that way because of a loss to Dartmouth or Columbia.
I agree that it won’t happen as it did so only once in the 60 years since Brown joined in 1953-54. That one time was 2002-03, when Penn went 14-0, Brown 12-2 and Princeton 10-4.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32830
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next 4
01-26-24 04:08 PM - Post#362162
In response to 13otto
You're the best! The only human capable of getting this answer. How long did it take you?
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-26-24 04:36 PM - Post#362163
In response to palestra38
Not too long as I just searched the historical Ivy standings. But that should have read once in 70 years. Time flies.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-26-24 08:00 PM - Post#362167
In response to 13otto
That was the year when every 2 game series was a sweep. What are the odds of that?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-26-24 08:06 PM - Post#362168
In response to palestra38
While I think 0-6 is probably more likely this year than it has ever been before based on the spread of teams (and we’re already halfway there due to schedule quirks), it isn’t necessarily imperative to the point. If none of the 4th place competitors separate themselves from the pack, 6 wins could well win 4th place.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1154
Reg: 07-28-07
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Re: Next 4
01-27-24 12:01 AM - Post#362172
In response to SomeGuy
How do you figure that we are "halfway" to 0-6? We lost one game to Cornell and have not played Yale or Princeton. Your math grades at Penn?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-27-24 02:11 PM - Post#362178
In response to SteveChop
I meant the league generally. Cornell Princeton and Yale have already gone 15-0 against everyone else in the league, if I am counting correctly.
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section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-27-24 09:12 PM - Post#362283
In response to 13otto
In 65=66, I thought Penn, Columbia, Cornell & Princeton swept the other four. Just an old guy's memory.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-27-24 10:49 PM - Post#362292
In response to SomeGuy
For the record, I totally added wrong. CPY are 10-0 against the rest of the league. So they are one third of the way to going undefeated against the rest of the league (not halfway). So my apologies for struggling with math.
To my point, though, Penn remains tied for the fourth spot.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-31-24 12:34 PM - Post#362441
In response to SomeGuy
Maybe silly to think about with 10 games left, but in terms of the relative positions of the five 1-3 teams competing for the 4th playoff spot, I think Brown is in the best spot, with a road win over Harvard. Columbia is probably next, simply because they have only lost to the top 3 so far. Penn is in the worst spot, with a home loss to Harvard. Dartmouth and Harvard kind of in the middle (Dartmouth holding serve at home so far, while Harvard is back on serve after the Penn win).
That’s assuming all the teams are truly even. KenPom suggests that the race is likely Harvard, Columbia, and Penn, with Harvard having a slight advantage.
Obviously this weekend will tell us more. While I don’t think Penn is doomed if we get swept this weekend, a win at Brown is important to our chances.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32830
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next 4
01-31-24 01:03 PM - Post#362444
In response to SomeGuy
Penn is absolutely doomed if it is swept this weekend. We don't have the veteran leadership to do one of those comebacks as we did, say, in '81-'82. I think we will sink close to the bottom if we are swept this weekend, something I am thinking is more and more likely.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Next 4
01-31-24 02:07 PM - Post#362458
In response to palestra38
Will Slajchert be available at all?
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1154
Reg: 07-28-07
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Re: Next 4
01-31-24 04:37 PM - Post#362468
In response to penn nation
The hope is that Clark will be available but I've seen nothing confirming or denying that possibility. Even if he plays, can't expect him to go 30-35 minutes both nights and his shooting could certainly be off after five weeks away from game competition.
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borschtbelt
Freshman
Posts: 60
Age: 74
Reg: 07-27-20
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Re: Next 4
01-31-24 05:48 PM - Post#362469
In response to SteveChop
But we now have Holland to take the burden of Clark (if the coaches let him).
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mshimmy
Sophomore
Posts: 193
Loc: Miami, FL
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
01-31-24 10:46 PM - Post#362479
In response to SomeGuy
You guys are maniacs for still caring about this. Hell, I still read this board. My son is 7 and I hope to bring him to a meaningful Penn basketball game in my lifetime, but I'd bet against it.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23394
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-24 07:57 AM - Post#362489
In response to mshimmy
You're a maniac for still reading the board. I guess that makes me a maniac too. Hoping for better days this century.
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