UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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03-11-24 10:47 PM - Post#365043
Steve Donahue took a program that was foundering and raised it to a mid-100’s club, good enough to contend in its peak years, good enough to make the Ivy tournament most years. Compared to the Miller and Allen years that was an improvement. Compared to the Dunphy years it was a significant downgrade. Please don’t tell me that Franny had an easier time of it. He averaged a sub 100 ranking against all commers, achieving the level that Yale and Princeton have now, and Harvard had for a while. That’s what good coaching does.
Unfortunately, three consecutive fallow recruiting years have left the program at a low level with questionable prospects for the next year at least. The program loses its best player, leaving it with but three legitimate players in Brown, Nick, and Perkins, none of which has yet shown star power. One hopes that the next recruiting class will be at least as good as last year’s. Except, that when graded by interest from other schools, this new class is in the bottom half of the league. So either Steve sees something nobody else does or good players committed before anybody else could recruit them. If you believe that, you probably think that Penn will reduce the price of Palestra tickets next year. Looking back Steve recruited ‘okay’. That was until after the Dingle year. Now the trend is downward.
Is it just recruiting? The staff has had partial success blending its players, particularly the Brodeur/Forman team. It has also produced good offensive numbers, including even this year, given the departure of its best scorer in Dingle. However, the team has had difficulty winning close games and generally performs worse in the Ivies, where everybody knows each other. More importantly, this year’s team, has put up historically bad defensive numbers. That is a major coaching failure. That is what got him fired at BC.
How long do we have to wait for some sunshine? The rest of the league, excepting Harvard, loses more minutes than Penn. That would matter if Penn wasn’t starting from a 3-11 level. Then there is the anomaly that has Penn ranked ahead of Harvard, Columbia, and Dartmouth, and just behind Brown on KP. Still, as ranked by wins in the Ivies they finished a firm seventh. The optimist in me says they contend for the fourth spot. The realist in me says Harvard will be much better next year and Penn will be fortunate to beat out Columbia. Darthmouth, of course, is a football school.
Sadly, history tells a difficult story. Penn now is one year removed from contending. Oh for one more point against Princeton in regulation at Jadwin. Allen also had a near miss with the Rosen team. It took, however, three years of losses for Bilsky to fire him and another three years to contend. That precedent says we have two more years of misery then two more years of patience until the program could reach contention in the 2029/2030 season. In total that would be 22 years in the wastelands since the last Ibby/Zoller/Danley team. Who would’a thunk it?
Might Penn act a year sooner? Donahue will be 62 on opening night next fall. I am guessing he has two more years on his current contract. Any improvement the next two years would lead to another five-year extension, taking him to 68. That is the most likely outcome, a program that competes for the fourth spot in Ivy Madness most years; you know like Brown and Columbia. Disney thinks dwarfs are cute.
I guess I will still be interested. I survived the Miller/Allen mess. Although, that would be a bunch of years analyzing the faults of a mediocre program. Maybe In my full retirement I will find something better to do.
Anyway, you will see me, Lord willing, at the Red & Blue game next fall. Maybe some newbies will stand out. At least Penn can’t lose at that event.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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03-12-24 01:12 PM - Post#365051
In response to UPIA1968
It is crazy to think that Penn has had exactly one decent coach since Bob Weinhauer left.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32833
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-12-24 01:28 PM - Post#365053
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
One Hall of Fame coach. One decent coach--Donahue. Problem is that they now need another Hall of Fame Coach. Just as Dunphy took the team back from the depths of awfulness to greatness, Penn needs another miracle worker. Donahue took the team from equal awfulness and a scandal and made it competitive, but the recruiting advantages Dunphy had no longer exist and Donahue isn't great at it anyway. Penn has to step up and do what Harvard did to get Amaker.
I predict they just don't care and won't do anything. Students no longer care, those who do are getting older---why bother? If the Wharton donors would just shut up, the administration would be happy as clams.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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03-12-24 09:41 PM - Post#365073
In response to palestra38
Sadly I agree.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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03-21-24 07:43 PM - Post#366031
In response to UPIA1968
Some facts for next year.
Penn with the four departed players loses 41% of its scoring, 29% of its rebounding and 35% of its minutes. Tyler's loss means that Penn will be decidedly among the Ivy teams with significant losses. On that basis a 2-4 win Ivy season is likely. It would be worse except for Dartmouth.
Penn gains for sure 4 players and is still in the mix for 6, including the two Jucos. The means five to seven new players.
There is hope, then, for a good recruiting year, maybe enough to offset the lost talent.
Penn's prospects for 2025 are no better than they were preseason for 2024. A spot in Ivy Madness would be a miracle.
I also looked at transfers across the league. Princeton, Yale, and Cornell had the least. No surprise huh? The departure of Perkins is the only significant early departure of a good player. Can anyone think of such a talent ever leaving the league so early.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-21-24 07:59 PM - Post#366032
In response to UPIA1968
I also looked at transfers across the league. Princeton, Yale, and Cornell had the least. No surprise huh? The departure of Perkins is the only significant early departure of a good player. Can anyone think of such a talent ever leaving the league so early.
The 90-91 ILROY?
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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What happened and what might happen
03-21-24 08:05 PM - Post#366035
In response to penn nation
I also looked at transfers across the league. Princeton, Yale, and Cornell had the least. No surprise huh? The departure of Perkins is the only significant early departure of a good player. Can anyone think of such a talent ever leaving the league so early.
The 90-91 ILROY?
Wow. A Will McAllister reference.
Edited by T.P.F.K.A.D.W. on 03-21-24 08:05 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: What happened and what might happen
03-21-24 08:12 PM - Post#366036
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
I gotta say, though, watching this Oakland-UNC game...
Jack Gohlke. My Lord.
And the guy's a DII transfer. So there's something to be said for the portal.
Edited by penn nation on 03-21-24 08:12 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-21-24 08:39 PM - Post#366039
In response to UPIA1968
Not anyone who played as much as he did. There have been some guys who didn’t start or play as much who may have been similarly talented (Jack Forest?) and left after freshman year. But I can’t think of anyone who played as much as Perkins did.
There have been some top players who left after 2 years (Cambridge, Boudreaux).
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: What happened and what might happen
03-21-24 08:57 PM - Post#366040
In response to penn nation
I meant Kentucky, not UNC.
Already 9 three pointers made, 12 minutes to play. Tourney all-time record is 11.
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mbaprof
Senior
Posts: 345
Age: 67
Reg: 12-24-11
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03-22-24 07:13 AM - Post#366052
In response to penn nation
Boudreaux interesting name to bring up
He was outstanding player, trapped in a bad program. His mom told me that he was very interested in PENN until the Jerome Allen situation happened, so he went to the family school where his mom was an all time player.
Took a year off and graduated in three years from Dartmouth which you can do due to their all year round schedule. Went to Purdue where he played 12 and then 17 min a game, got some great tournament airtime. Completed his Masters in Technology at Purdue and is working at Deloitte Consulting in Chicago.
Not your typical transfer but hope some of these other situations work out well for the young men
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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03-22-24 09:13 AM - Post#366056
In response to mbaprof
Interesting transfer on women’s side was Laura Bagwell-Katalinich who left Penn after one semester (and scant few minutes) and went to Cornell. Was first team All Ivy there and went on to play two grad years at Minnesota. That loss almost never gets talked about but I can’t remember any players transferring to another Ivy and then being so accomplished.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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03-22-24 10:02 AM - Post#366061
In response to CM
Interesting comments by Jay Wright on the Kentucky loss. He said freshmen lack the discipline to excell in college.
Reminds me of some of Steve Danley's remarks about spacing in the Dunphy program. Penn will be very young again next year.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32833
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-22-24 10:15 AM - Post#366062
In response to UPIA1968
You should have heard Calipari's comments post-game, wondering if his strategy of getting the best young players in the nation works in the Portal era. He noted that he has 18-19 year olds going up against 24 year olds. Of course, if he went Portal, he would have the financial backing but would lose all his recruits. He became extinct overnight.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1890
Reg: 11-21-04
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What happened and what might happen
03-22-24 11:16 AM - Post#366067
In response to SomeGuy
Not anyone who played as much as he did. There have been some guys who didn’t start or play as much who may have been similarly talented (Jack Forest?) and left after freshman year. But I can’t think of anyone who played as much as Perkins did.
There have been some top players who left after 2 years (Cambridge, Boudreaux).
You're forgetting about this guy: https://uclabruins.com/sports/2013/4/17/2081 85092
(I realize that reminding you good people about this guy is a bit of a self own.)
Edited by TigerFan on 03-22-24 11:18 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32833
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: What happened and what might happen
03-22-24 01:37 PM - Post#366073
In response to TigerFan
Post on the Brown board saying Nana is entering the portal today---if so, this may be the beginning of a wave.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: What happened and what might happen
03-22-24 03:56 PM - Post#366093
In response to palestra38
Scary. Like Dingle, this is a kid on a top 4 team in the league deciding to go elsewhere. It’s one thing when your team isn’t competing. It’s another when the league starts losing players from the Ivy tournament teams. Brown was in good position for next year. Now they will have to replace 2 of their 3 front court players with guys who haven’t played much, if at all. Or go very small with Anya at the 5 and Cooley at the 4.
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 587
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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Re: What happened and what might happen
03-23-24 07:28 AM - Post#366197
In response to SomeGuy
Scary. Like Dingle, this is a kid on a top 4 team in the league deciding to go elsewhere. It’s one thing when your team isn’t competing. It’s another when the league starts losing players from the Ivy tournament teams. Brown was in good position for next year. Now they will have to replace 2 of their 3 front court players with guys who haven’t played much, if at all. Or go very small with Anya at the 5 and Cooley at the 4.
Dingle started a bad wave.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2139
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Re: What happened and what might happen
03-23-24 02:05 PM - Post#366238
In response to Charlie Fog
True, but Dingle had credentials as Ivy player of the year and second leading scorer in D1 that none of the players with remaining Ivy eligibility who chose the portal route this year can point to.
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dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2214
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
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03-25-24 10:17 PM - Post#366457
In response to CM
Interesting transfer on women’s side was Laura Bagwell-Katalinich who left Penn after one semester (and scant few minutes) and went to Cornell. Was first team All Ivy there and went on to play two grad years at Minnesota. That loss almost never gets talked about but I can’t remember any players transferring to another Ivy and then being so accomplished.
Yeah, losing her probably cost us the 2019 championship. In turn, that and the 2017 choke against A&M are big reasons why we're in the hole right now. One bad mark you do have to put against McLaughlin is that he has run some talent off over the years.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
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