Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2816
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-29-24 12:05 PM - Post#366671
Back in the golden age, when I was an undergraduate, the ivies used to have freshman teams. It occurred to me that if we returned to fielding freshman teams with players ineligible for varsity play , at least in football and basketball,, we might develop an effective strategy for attracting and holding high profile student athletes until they receive their degrees at which time they would still have a year of eligibility and a chance to cash in on a lucrative NIL by entering the transfer portal. Also, if they were receiving financial aid, it would not be lost until after they received NIL $. If my understanding is correct, a player could play varsity for 3 years and possibly even practice with the varsity team during his/her freshman year.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-29-24 12:29 PM - Post#366672
In response to Tiger69
Interesting idea. But basketball players want to play basketball. Basically building a redshirt year into every Ivy player's experience would make recruiting effectively impossible. Imagine trying convince a high school kid they'd have to sit out a year of playing competitive basketball if they came to your school (and have to pay tuition on top of it).
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2816
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-29-24 02:53 PM - Post#366681
In response to CM
Ivies form a freshmen league or play as JVs while practicing with Varsity. Few freshmen get more than garbage time now. If they worked with Varsity in practice the step up as sophs would be much easier. Some might even be ready for meaningful game time by then.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32837
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-29-24 02:57 PM - Post#366682
In response to Tiger69
Man, you're old. This was a bad idea when posted on the Penn Board. No one will want to go to schools that don't let them play as freshmen, especially with no scholarships. There's a reason we got rid of freshman ineligibility in 1977---it was outdated then. Not a good idea to bring it back in a vain attempt to let players graduate and play another year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-29-24 03:00 PM - Post#366683
In response to CM
I have wondered about recruiting to a Boudreaux scenario though. Graduate in 3 and then go play elsewhere. Try to sell kids on a world where they can have it all. Get the Ivy degree, be a big fish in a small basketball pond for a couple of years, then get a big NIL deal and play big time college basketball for a year or two.
We’re not going to get talented enough players to compete nationally with one and done kids (one Malik Mack or Tyler Perkins wasn’t enough for that). But we might be able to compete if we have those types of talents for 2-3 years.
For better or worse, the combination of Covid, Ivy grad rules, and the transfer portal led to a full cycle of kids who got to do both, and now you have kids behind them who saw older teammates do both. Natural that that might lead to more kids wanting to transfer and play at a higher level.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2816
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-29-24 04:37 PM - Post#366687
In response to palestra38
True that. 77 in May.
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umbrellaman
Masters Student
Posts: 476
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-29-24 06:34 PM - Post#366704
In response to Tiger69
Let me try to understand the thinking behind the one and done players. While I would think that they already made a decision about the value of the degree - maybe the degree is viewed as a hedge? They feel they are undervalued out of high school - they get to go Ivy and get to play far more than they might as a high major, they can increase their value and cash in with NIL - if they get hurt, or otherwise don't excel at the next level they have the Ivy degree and hoops to fall back on.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3671
Reg: 02-06-10
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-29-24 08:56 PM - Post#366719
In response to umbrellaman
If athletic scholarships are out of the question, then NIL money could at least be excluded from financial aid calculations. No need to punish kids for being good enough to earn NIL money.
I don't think the Ivies will ever engage in NIL payments via "booster collectives," which sound like a dark money slush fund. And these funds might be shut down by the NCAA/feds anyway.
But I fully support students-athletes being able to earn NIL money through things like sponsorships and social media promotions.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-29-24 09:47 PM - Post#366724
In response to gokinsmen
The Ivy freshman team requirement is often cited as the reason Gene Banks went to Duke over Penn in 1977 – because basketball players do want to play basketball – and Quakers fans wonder just how good those team could have been.
If you have a high school student athlete who was very sure they wanted to earn a graduate degree directly after undergrad and wanted to avoid paying the higher grad school costs, then I could see a scheme where the player “redshirted” as a freshman, played three years and then used both their basketball skills and Ivy degree to gain entrance into their desired graduate school. How many kids fit this mold? And I am also not sure the Ivy League rules allows a player to “redshirt” for other than medical reasons. – so not sure how a self imposed “redshirt” year would impact the 4 athletic years over 5 academic years.
Nor do I believe it would help the outflow from the Ivies with effectively $0 NIL, or any school, when a player is offered a higher NIL by another school at the end of every year.
As many have mentioned, the practical reality of current Ivy need based aid is that the after-tax revenue a student-athlete earns goes $ for $ to reduce financial aid. Same with third-party scholarships. If you do not think you will earn more than your financial aid award, why expend the energy?. Not sure why there is no sharing of the benefit, there is little incentive for the student with a lot of financial aid to lift a finger to earn more money.
But if Princeton can exclude a family’s “primary vacation housing” as an asset, no legal reason preventing a school from excluding NIL income as an asset in the financial aid formula, or only count part. The 1992 ish era financial aid collusion ruling would certainly prohibit the Ivy League from dictating a conference level rule on how to calculate financial aid. So the issue of NIL in the financial aid formula is solvable at the institutional level, the institution just has to want to provide the NIL benefit to its student athletes.
Edited by JDP on 03-29-24 09:53 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2816
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 11:53 AM - Post#366736
In response to JDP
Thanks for the background, JDP, particularly the Banks decision to go to Dook over Penn many moons ago. Now I know why Palestra38 bristled at my suggestion that a prospect might be willing to defer Varsity play for a year. I am not very knowledgeable of the evolution of eligibility regulations and I rarely pay an an unwelcome visit over to the Penn boards.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32837
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 11:59 AM - Post#366737
In response to Tiger69
Stay healthy---67 next month. Don't see too many 20s and 30s here.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 12:32 PM - Post#366739
In response to SomeGuy
So you're saying dangling the 'chance' to do 4 years of Ivy education 3 would be an incentive? That is. Insane. Being in college is fun, doing a college sport with your classmates is super fun.
Boudreaux was only able to do it because he didn't play his 3rd year at Dartmouth (and had summer quarter through the D plan).
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2276
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Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 12:33 PM - Post#366740
In response to gokinsmen
If athletic scholarships are out of the question, then NIL money could at least be excluded from financial aid calculations. No need to punish kids for being good enough to earn NIL money.
Hmmm. Not sure the institutions would endorse that idea. Give the athlete aid while he collects money from an outside source.
I would think any Ivy NIL package (should such an entity come to exist) would cover tuition, room, & board FIRST, and the remainder to the athlete.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 12:34 PM - Post#366741
In response to gokinsmen
Listen, as long as scholarships are off the table everything else is noise. Read some of the cockamammy ideas people are floating. It's ridiculous. If the Ivys don't start offering athletic scholarships they'll effectively be D3 within a decade.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 12:36 PM - Post#366742
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
So the NIL is actually for the school's coffers. This unreal. Sports recruits are no imbeciles. The current model is clearly unsustainable, and probably has been for some while.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1891
Reg: 11-21-04
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 02:26 PM - Post#366744
In response to CM
CM, it may be time for you to pick your favorite Power-5 conference team and move on. I just don't see Ivy League institutions fundamentally changing how they provide financial aid. Nor do I think they should!
As much as I will always harbor dreams of the Tigers reliving the 1998 team's national rankings and exposure and the 2023 teams incredible run to the Sweet Sixteen (or why not the Final Four?!), what made those years magical to me was the "against all odds," (no scholarships!), nature of the run.
I also suggest that folks take a peek at your favorite Ivy's online Financial Aid Estimator and play with the numbers a little before making assertions about the impact that NIL would have on financial aid packages. You might be surprised with how generous the packages are these days and how much a high-performing athlete could "net" on NIL vs. Financial Aid.
Princeton now provides 100% financial aid coverage (entirely with grants, not loans) for families with parent's AGI up to $100,000. According to my review of the online estimator, a student making $50k (from NIL or any other source) from a family with parental AGI at $100k and $50k in non-retirement investments would lose $8,000 off their financial aid package (netting $42k). A student earning $100k from NIL (or any other source) from such afamily would lose $21k of their financial aid package (netting $79k).
Students at Princeton with parental AGI of $150k and $50k in non-retirement investments now only pay $15k to attend Princeton. A student earning $100k through NIL (or any other source), with such parents would only lose about $30k of financial aid (netting up around $70k).
I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that the impact of NIL would diminish with increasing family income about $150k.
Will Ivy players secure those kinds of NIL payments? I don't know (although there are rumors on the always dependable internet machine that X. Lee may have a big deal). My point is that if such offers are to be had, such funds won't all be offset by reduced financial aid.
Call me Pollyanna, but I don't think the world is coming to an end. The Ivy League ranked out as the #12 highest rated conference for men's basketball in 2023-24--one of the best performances in YEARS. I don't see the league suddenly plunging to D3 any time soon.
Go Tigers!
Edited by TigerFan on 03-30-24 02:44 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 03:54 PM - Post#366745
In response to CM
Well, I have wondered whether it has been part of the pitch at Harvard in the past. Pre-Covid They seemed to have guys who had unexplained injuries and then wereable to play a year as a grad student. It happened with enough guys that I started to wonder whether they were actually encouraging the practice to get better players. Not sure it’s just Boudreaux graduating early. Did Dingle graduate? There was a suggestion at one point that he was able to finish up before transferring. But the injury redshirt path is certainly more common. I’m just wondering if being a little less afraid of losing transfers should be part of the approach. Everyone is losing them now. It’s not just an Ivy problem. Like everyone else, I am just trying to think of ways to adjust to the new environment. I think that some of our views are a little stuck in the past. Yes, it’s fun to be part of a team for 4 years — but we may be focusing on that perspective because we remember when that was what just about everyone did. Increasingly that is not the norm.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 05:09 PM - Post#366746
In response to TigerFan
I do not expect the Ivies to change. Physics 101: An object at rest, stays at rest. The Ivies need a strong external influence to change their beliefs. The 1992ish era financial aid collusion decision is one such event. Why I hold out the scholarship lawsuit as the only external influence that could bring about change – anything else anyone can name that would have the Ivy Presidents do anything differently than they have done for decades? The Dartmouth Union, unlikely.
I also do not expect any Ivy to eliminate the NIL as an asset in the financial aid formula. But if an Ivy wanted to make such a change, it’s an institution level decision outside of the Ivy League rules.
To TigerFan's point. One should look at the Financial Aid calculators. When asked why Harvard and Princeton have won 2x the amount of Ivy Titles (nearly 50%) than their expectations, Financial Aid is a first order impact.
Why? All things equal, after considering financial aid, head-to-head Harvard and Princeton are no more expensive than any other Ivy and in many case, materially less expensive.
Middle class Student Athlete whose parents own a home applies to Penn & Princeton, which school do you believe will deliver the better aid package?
For Princeton “Assets do not include retirement holdings or primary residence. Assets do include non-retirement investments, 529 plan college savings, student assets and investments, non-primary vacation housing and other homes.”
For Penn home equity is included from residence and primary vacation home. “Typical assets can be defined as having a relative amount in cash and/or savings, checking, and investments. Assets also include home equity (the value of your primary home), other real estate equity owned by your immediate family (secondary to your primary home), and business equity (the value of a business owned by your parents).
Conceptually I have no arguments with Princeton’s approach – they are using the institutional resourses to attract the best students including student-athletes.
From a conference perspective, however, the Ivy Conference is not a level playing field. Some schools have the financial aid budgets of the New York Yankees, some the Oakland As or Pittsburgh Pirates – and on the field results are not unexpected.
Before NIL, before scholarships, I would look for the Ivies (not holding breath) to return to the league wide equality properties that were core to the League’s founding principles.
TigerFans, back when I was at the mercy of the Penn Financial aid formula – the expectation was that 100% of what a student earns should be applied to college costs – so 100% of after tax NIL revenue would reduce the financial aid $ for after tax NIL $.
I also do think about how the NIL portal realities will change a coaches’ approach to recruiting. Now every player will need portal and NIL impact score. Do you recruit the overlooked student athlete who could blow up and go free agent or opt for someone who is highly likely to make commencement services? Or will we become a conference of wealthy family student athlete who are only swayed by high 6 digit / 7 digit NIL and a class of student athletes that do not command high mid major or Power 5 NIL?
Edited by JDP on 03-30-24 05:17 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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jeromelh
Junior
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Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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03-30-24 06:23 PM - Post#366747
In response to JDP
Hi JDP
Could you comment on my response below. This is from the perspective of a Princeton guy.
Lee and Tosan were offered only by Princeton. It's not like Princeton has been out recruiting Harvard and Yale. MH has been finding and developing hidden high school gems. So far MH's players have been incredibly loyal. So I am not sure how much your post impacts Princeton's program
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1891
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 06:52 PM - Post#366748
In response to JDP
Good points, JDP. As a parent of a recent Princeton graduate, I can attest to the University's incredible Financial Aid program. Paid a lot less for child to attend Princeton than would have paid to attend Rutgers as state residents. Child #1 attended a high ranking non-Ivy private school--received a very nice merit-based package but nowhere near Princeton's need-based package for child #2. And Princeton's package just gets better and better every year. I'm sure FA is a HUGE selling point to recruited athletes. (I actually didn't know that aid wasn't reduced 1:1 with student income until I ran the numbers on the on-line FA estimator).
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jeromelh
Junior
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Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 08:19 PM - Post#366751
In response to TigerFan
You are correct that Princeton's financial aid package is getting better. My point is that this has little to do with the Tigers' basketball success and has little to no effect on recruiting. Take a look at this year's starting 5. Aside from Dalen Davis (who comes off the bench), none of these players were highly recruited coming out of high school. As an aside, both Yale and Harvard have more highly touted players coming in this fall.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2276
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 08:33 PM - Post#366752
In response to TigerFan
You might be surprised with how generous the packages are these days and how much a high-performing athlete could "net" on NIL vs. Financial Aid.
Princeton now provides 100% financial aid coverage (entirely with grants, not loans) for families with parent's AGI up to $100,000. According to my review of the online estimator, a student making $50k (from NIL or any other source) from a family with parental AGI at $100k and $50k in non-retirement investments would lose $8,000 off their financial aid package (netting $42k). A student earning $100k from NIL (or any other source) from such afamily would lose $21k of their financial aid package (netting $79k).
Students at Princeton with parental AGI of $150k and $50k in non-retirement investments now only pay $15k to attend Princeton. A student earning $100k through NIL (or any other source), with such parents would only lose about $30k of financial aid (netting up around $70k).
Interesting, and yes, I am surprised!
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1891
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 08:42 PM - Post#366753
In response to jeromelh
Princeton is bringing in some terrific players next year. I don't get too excited about what the ratings systems say but according to Verbal Commits, Princeton is bringing in a stronger group than Harvard or Yale:
Jack Stanton (3.9 stars)
Malik Abdullahi (3.63 stars)
Peyton Seals (3.35 stars)
CJ Happy (3 stars)
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 09:26 PM - Post#366755
In response to jeromelh
Hi jeromelh,
Please let me know if this addresses your question:
Princeton, with their very generous financial aid package, may be the least impacted across the Ivies as it may take a larger NIL check to entice a player away from Princeton relative to other Ivies. But while Princeton has yet to a lose a player, I believe it would be naïve to think that it is not just a matter of time – the NIL money in the men’s game is too large to believe loyalty has not become transactional.
Mitch has to consider this in his recruitment calculus, especially as he finds hidden gems. Would / Should a Princeton player remain if they could make $1mm plus in NIL elsewhere? Wolf should put every Ivy team on notice that a talented 7-footer may not last 8 semesters. Therefore an Ivy coach has to think twice about building an Ivy recruiting cycle around a talented 7-footer.
Even if Princeton weathers the NIL portal plague better than the league, they are indirectly impacted in two ways. The 24-25 league will be weaker than we all expected a month ago. Likely means fewer out of conference wins and lower RPIs for league teams. Winning the league will be less meaningful come NCAA seeding or NIT invite time. Also will eventually hurt overall league recruiting. Talented players want to play against high caliber competition. If the League falls from a high mid major RPI to again bottom quartile conference, fewer high mid major players will want to go Ivy.
Stepping back – what is the current reality for a college coach to build a winning team for 24-25, 25-26? Find the best five freshman in the country who may be one & done and need to learn the college game or find the five solid well coached rising juniors or seniors who have a better understanding of the college game and whose bodies have had more weight room time that incoming freshman. Would USC be as good if they did not have their “three nerds” to complement JuJu.
As the COVID extra year has come to an end, you have to believe any first or second team Ivy player will be more in NIL focus. Should be less expensive than other mid-majors who provide full scholarships, and some level of NIL. The only questions can the two parties come to a financial agreement?
Edited by JDP on 03-30-24 09:31 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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jeromelh
Junior
Posts: 215
Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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03-30-24 09:34 PM - Post#366756
In response to TigerFan
I respectfully disagree with your assessment. For example, Harvard's recruit Robert Hinton is much better than anyone Princeton is bringing in. Depending on the site, he is a 3 star or 4 star. He is a top 100 recruit. Verbal recruits has Hinton at 2.86 which is below anyone Princeton is bringing in.
https://www.on3.com/college/harvard-crims on/news/2...
Yale's Jordan BRATHWAITE was on the verge of getting major college before he committed to Yale as was Yale recruit Celiscar who already had offers from Florida Atlantic and New Mexico State.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1891
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-30-24 10:14 PM - Post#366758
In response to jeromelh
I'm not claiming anything other than having looked at one site (Verbal Commits), which ranked the incoming Tigers higher than Yale and Harvard's classes. Period. Its a silly debate until they have spent a couple of years at each school.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 05:58 AM - Post#366761
In response to TigerFan
Couple things. One, I finished not so long ago paying tuition at one of the Ancient Eight for my kid, who had over 20 D1 offers, but chose an Ivy. As I had, so probably my fault. Yes, the aid packages made it doable, but you know what it wasn't? Free. My kid's AAU and HS teammates paid zero and actually got checks every semester for cost of attendance. Yes, some even chased NIL checks, too.Sure, they didn't get the Ivy stamp, but this is what the Ivys are competing against.
As far as the sky not falling, uh, well, I'd say the best young players in the league running for the door over the past couple weeks sure feels like a signal of something bad happening. If you're a high level high school kid and you see Mack, Wolf, and Perkins exiting the Ivys - and trust me, high school kids and their coaches take note of all this stuff - the chances you'll seriously consider this league have for sure decreased.
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jeromelh
Junior
Posts: 215
Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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03-31-24 10:42 AM - Post#366762
In response to CM
If you look at the quality of the Ivy basketball recruits, I don't think there has been any fall off in quality. So I don't believe that the aid packages are having any major impact at this time.
That said, I think the NIL money and easy ability to transfer will indeed devastate the Ivy League. Yale, Penn and Harvard have already been dealt devastating blows with quality players leaving the program.
For some reason (so far), Princeton seems to have escaped the tranfer epidemic.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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03-31-24 11:29 AM - Post#366763
In response to jeromelh
Maybe, but I think you're looking backwards and saying' Well, look, the League still gets good players.' But all I'm saying is the decisions by top guys to transfer will, in the future, for sure have a deleterious effect in bringing in more quality players.
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jeromelh
Junior
Posts: 215
Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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03-31-24 11:34 AM - Post#366764
In response to CM
OK. Let's see what happens.
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-31-24 11:47 AM - Post#366765
In response to CM
a couple of seemingly contradictory things could be true at once....
the recruiting could be fine for a while.
why? because of the portal high school kids who are mid major+ arent getting offers. i coached two this year on an elite team of 12. they might do a prep school or juco but a few years ago they would have 10+ offers mid major+
coaches are prioritizing the elite kids and the portal.
but at the same time you lose any kids who become elite college players-mack wolf etc.
so you stay younger which hurts relative but you dont fall off a cliff.
is this my prediction? not necessarily. there are a lot of variables and i am still net bearish on the implications for the ivies.
but so far not surprised by any developments so we'll see
big picture-the SEC and big 10 will swallow the world anyway in football. that ripple hits basketball in some way. nobody will graduate there will be an uproar;the ncaa tournament complexion could change; really who knows how far or where it goes if no congressional input.
case in point yale. wolf leaves which is a huge blow. does anyone else follow in 30 days? i dont know.
but if not the roster might not be optimized short term but you have a kid possibly stepping into the void next year who was higher recruited than Wolf with multiple power 5 offers and a huge ceiling.
now if he performs with more minutes will he leave? possibly.
will the next kid from dallas w UT and Houston offers follow him? i doubt it.
but there are so many good players now in the grassroots ranks that who's to say you dont find underrecruited gems-miye onis xaivian lee caden pierce even danny wolf etc etc
am i positive about this? not really but anything is possible.
i certainly dont think the ivy league will change it's policy on scholarships or even culturally collectives
lastly i could see collectives coming under federal scrutiny also for tax and other reasons
i wrote about this months ago but dark money pools , the distribution policy and the IRS can be a toxic mix.
thats not a prediction but a possibility.
i had my tax team spend some time on it and thats their view.
they wrote me a 3 page conclusion. it's astounding
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-31-24 01:38 PM - Post#366766
In response to CM
I think you are assuming kids are planning to go somewhere for four years. I don’t think that is the case in this environment. They aren’t going to shy away from a place just because kids are transferring away — mainly because kids are transferring away from any school you go to right now. What Dingle, Wolf, and Mack are showing is that the Ivy can be a great platform for getting you into a high major program. That could actually increase the league’s ability to attract talent.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3671
Reg: 02-06-10
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 02:29 PM - Post#366767
In response to SomeGuy
What Dingle, Wolf, and Mack are showing is that the Ivy can be a great platform for getting you into a high major program. That could actually increase the league’s ability to attract talent.
That's a good point. While being a high major springboard robs us of seeing Ivy talent in their prime, it's still possible to build a very good team (and a potential NCAA Cinderella) with underclassmen stars and upperclassmen glue guys.
After all, the Top 3 players in the league this season were sophomores (Pierce, Lee and Wolf). And Mack was a Top 10 player as a freshman. Not to mention there will be the occasional star who does want to stay (e.g. Lee and Pierce, knock on wood).
I also suspect that many Ivy stars will find that going high major isn't all it's cracked up to be. Unless you really need that NIL money - and some do - it's no fun watching your PPG drop from 20 to 12 or getting benched during crunch time.
And judging by the many NBA scouts who came to see Xaivian Lee play as a mere soph, I question how much more "NBA exposure" they're getting as the 4th option on a Power 5 team. Being a big fish in a small pond can be a very good thing.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4914
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-31-24 03:52 PM - Post#366769
In response to gokinsmen
Judging from the host of mid-major transfers starting on the P5 teams in this year’s Sweet Sixteen, this issue does not seem like an Ivy problem more than a mid-major problem. James has rightly noted that we are not currently in a stable institutional equilibrium even with respect to the tax status of NIL collectives, much less conference roles and alignments, so the “something must be done, this is something, therefore it must be done” approach is particularly misguided right now.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 04:56 PM - Post#366772
In response to gokinsmen
Yes. Obviously you can get to the NBA from the Ivy. Dingle decided to use the platform to get to the Big East. He probably hurt his NBA stock by doing so.
Dingle, Boudreaux, and Smith all went from high volume scorer to more of a role player at a high major. It speaks well of all of them that they could make that transition, but some guys are going to prefer to be the big dog.
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digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 468
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
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03-31-24 05:31 PM - Post#366773
In response to SomeGuy
Maybe the Princeton or Cornell folks can give some insight, but the Earl departure bothers me much more than the player transfers. The transfers hurt, but they are what everyone in college basketball is experiencing. We're not immune, and yes the league needs a plan to address. Earl leaving makes me suspicious there isn't even a thought of one.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3671
Reg: 02-06-10
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 08:02 PM - Post#366777
In response to digamma
Earl leaving feels like a simple salary issue. He's 47 with a family and has never had a real payday. W&M surely offered him more than he was getting as a first-time HC at Cornell. Before that he was a 9-year assistant at Princeton. Not much money to be made as an assistant anywhere in the Ivy.
By contrast, Mitch was a 11-year assistant in the Big Ten before being an 13-year HC at his alma mater, where he's been very successful. He may not be making seven-figures a year, but he's made a lot more money than Brian has in his career.
So yeah, I don't see Earl leaving as a red flag. Now if Amaker were to leave Harvard, then that would be a lot more alarming.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 797
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-31-24 08:28 PM - Post#366780
In response to SRP
this is also true.
ncstate has 4 "grad" students which is code for 23+yr olds.
we all know no one is graduating who transfers 3+ times or it's unlikely (another possible catalyst for congressional reform)
uconn which looks like an nba team so far... but arguably two most productive and consistent players are from east carolina and loyola md, originally.
i am really disappointed to lose wolf but i expected it and i see the entire issue as increasingly grey and hard to predict going forward.
i guess i just hope that aletan blows up and leaves too.
and then you find another which isnt probable but possible
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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04-01-24 06:23 AM - Post#366783
In response to SomeGuy
I'd counter, if you're not planning on using an Ivy to get an Ivy degree (which seems like the greatest value in the proposition), why the heck would you pay for even a single year of college if you had other options?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-01-24 03:28 PM - Post#366791
In response to CM
I think the answer isn’t all that different from what it has always been. You want to play at a high major but don’t have an offer. You’re a high academics kid, so you decide to go Ivy instead of another mid major, because the degree will help you more in the long run. The difference now is that between the transfer portal, NIL, and changes in the way kids think about degrees and careers now, you’re not all-in for 4 years. You’re just all-in until you’re not (which is why Nana can tweet about getting to work for next year at Brown one day and enter the portal a week later). So now kids will come to play at an Ivy school thinking it can be a springboard to a high major, or a path to a valuable degree. They win either way. Penn used to avoid kids they viewed as transfer risks (who knows — maybe we still do, and that explains why we didn’t offer Nana). I’m suggesting we lean into recruiting kids who want to play at a higher level.
I don’t disagree with your point about scholarships at all. I doubt the current policy will change, so I am just thinking about how to sell the school within the existing policy, given other changes to the rules and world around us.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-01-24 05:34 PM - Post#366793
In response to umbrellaman
Let me try to understand the thinking behind the one and done players. While I would think that they already made a decision about the value of the degree - maybe the degree is viewed as a hedge? They feel they are undervalued out of high school - they get to go Ivy and get to play far more than they might as a high major, they can increase their value and cash in with NIL - if they get hurt, or otherwise don't excel at the next level they have the Ivy degree and hoops to fall back on.
Pat, on this point for Perkins and Mack in particular, the hot rumor is that they may both be headed to Georgetown, where they would get scholies, six-figure NIL deals, ability to play in front of local family and friends, AND an Ivy-equivalent degree and alumni network to fall back on in pursuing a post-basketball future.
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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04-01-24 10:59 PM - Post#366795
In response to Chip Bayers
Yes, there's an extremely good chance that they both end up at Georgetown. In fact, I'd be shocked if either of them ends up anywhere else.
Georgetown is desperate, has a top 5 NIL budget this offseason, and is especially desperate to make inroads with DC kids (and their AAU teams). Mack and Perkins check every box for them.
And, as you say, the two of them can make a good chunk of change while not trading down too far, degree-wise, and getting to play in front of their families.
I'm not sure how it will all work out basketball-wise. Ed Cooley is coaching for his job in Year Two, that's how much of a disaster he was this past year. (Georgetown had the KP 322 defense; I don't care how bereft your roster is, that should never happen). They're going to throw a ton of money at Mack and Perkins, but neither of those guys are going to do anything about the team's defensive deficiencies. Even with a strong recruiting class coming in, I'm not sure Mack and Perkins really get Georgetown to .500 in the Big East. Could be ugly for them.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4914
Reg: 02-04-06
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04-02-24 06:29 AM - Post#366797
In response to mobrien
Surely only one would go to Georgetown. Two iffy defenders who play the same position (quite well offensively)? Color me skeptical.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 434
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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04-02-24 07:58 AM - Post#366798
In response to SRP
I don't think they play the same position.
Mack is a pont guard, and Perkins is a wing.
No idea where either lands.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4914
Reg: 02-04-06
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04-02-24 08:44 PM - Post#366849
In response to LocalTiger
Perkins is a wing? I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention because he seemed to be handling the ball and setting up the offense a lot.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1149
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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04-03-24 11:21 AM - Post#366902
In response to SRP
One good thing about the NIL--it appears to have broken the stranglehold that shoe companies had on NCAA basketball.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/march-madness- how-the...
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-03-24 04:02 PM - Post#366914
In response to SRP
Yes, he brought the ball up some. But he is a wing (and at times played as an undersized 4 for Penn).
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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04-09-24 03:51 PM - Post#367168
In response to SomeGuy
Every mid-major conference is now just a minor league for the Power 5. (The Missouri Valley has been hit especially hard this year; at last count, something like 10 of the 15 players on their all-conference teams are in the portal). This isn't going to change, either, unless they get rid of the instant transfer rules, which I doubt will happen. The most I could see is something like limiting guys to one instant transfer during their careers (unless their coach leaves) as a reaction against the players going to three or four schools in four years.
In that light, the Ivies might actually be doing a little bit better than other mid-majors at retaining players. The degree is still worth something. Guys like not only Lee and Pierce, but also Lilly, Okpara, Poulakidas, Mbeng, DLR, and Nazir Williams would probably all be in the portal right now if this was the America East and not the Ivies. So it definitely lowers our ceiling a lot, but the floor may not be as low as we fear (although let's see if all those guys do end up staying).
The big question is what ends up happening with the big conferences. As we've said before, it seems pretty clear that the ACC is on the verge of imploding; Clemson and Florida State both want to join the SEC as soon as possible, and others won't be far behind. I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC and Big 12 try to prevent their remaining teams from being picked off by merging. That'd give them the size to try to negotiate something closer to the money the SEC and Big 10 are getting from football. If they don't do that, they'll both be gone within the next five years or so. Although even if they do, it still might not be enough.
That leaves the Big East, which even in its lesser form has still managed to win four of the past eight championships. It's not going to go away, although it will get harder for them to compete at such a high level if it starts routinely getting outbid on players, and, more importantly, its coaches. (Hurley shows how much having a coach who runs a modern offense matters nowadays). It probably needs to get bigger too if it wants to get the bigger TV deal it needs to not fall too far behind. That would probably mean trying to poach the best two or three schools from the other basketball-only conferences—Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Francisco, and maybe Santa Clara from the WCC; Dayton, VCU, Loyola Chicago, and possibly George Mason from the A10; and maybe even Bradley or Drake of the MVC (although Drake just lost its coach); and, of course, any of Duke, Stanford, or Notre Dame if the ACC did completely fall apart and they weren't scooped up by any other conference.
Within 10 years, there could be easily be two or three big football conferences and one big basketball-only conference that between them would encompass something like 80 schools. Mid-major teams will lose most of their top talent every year, and will get younger and less competitive as a result. That'll make it easier for the big boys to argue that smaller conferences don't deserve automatic bids anymore, which could lead to a "compromise" where the tournament is either expanded, or more autobid teams have to face off in play-in games, or both.
Lots to not look forward to.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-09-24 06:09 PM - Post#367173
In response to mobrien
Big 12 has been trying to add Gonzaga as a basketball only member.
Also rumored to be pursuing Duke as the ACC implodes.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-09-24 06:47 PM - Post#367175
In response to SomeGuy
Yes, he brought the ball up some. But he is a wing (and at times played as an undersized 4 for Penn).
Perkins was forced into bringing the ball up court much more in the weeks Slajchert was out. But he was never a PG.
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