Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-01-24 05:34 PM - Post#366793
In response to umbrellaman
Let me try to understand the thinking behind the one and done players. While I would think that they already made a decision about the value of the degree - maybe the degree is viewed as a hedge? They feel they are undervalued out of high school - they get to go Ivy and get to play far more than they might as a high major, they can increase their value and cash in with NIL - if they get hurt, or otherwise don't excel at the next level they have the Ivy degree and hoops to fall back on.
Pat, on this point for Perkins and Mack in particular, the hot rumor is that they may both be headed to Georgetown, where they would get scholies, six-figure NIL deals, ability to play in front of local family and friends, AND an Ivy-equivalent degree and alumni network to fall back on in pursuing a post-basketball future.
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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04-01-24 10:59 PM - Post#366795
In response to Chip Bayers
Yes, there's an extremely good chance that they both end up at Georgetown. In fact, I'd be shocked if either of them ends up anywhere else.
Georgetown is desperate, has a top 5 NIL budget this offseason, and is especially desperate to make inroads with DC kids (and their AAU teams). Mack and Perkins check every box for them.
And, as you say, the two of them can make a good chunk of change while not trading down too far, degree-wise, and getting to play in front of their families.
I'm not sure how it will all work out basketball-wise. Ed Cooley is coaching for his job in Year Two, that's how much of a disaster he was this past year. (Georgetown had the KP 322 defense; I don't care how bereft your roster is, that should never happen). They're going to throw a ton of money at Mack and Perkins, but neither of those guys are going to do anything about the team's defensive deficiencies. Even with a strong recruiting class coming in, I'm not sure Mack and Perkins really get Georgetown to .500 in the Big East. Could be ugly for them.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4914
Reg: 02-04-06
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04-02-24 06:29 AM - Post#366797
In response to mobrien
Surely only one would go to Georgetown. Two iffy defenders who play the same position (quite well offensively)? Color me skeptical.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 434
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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04-02-24 07:58 AM - Post#366798
In response to SRP
I don't think they play the same position.
Mack is a pont guard, and Perkins is a wing.
No idea where either lands.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4914
Reg: 02-04-06
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04-02-24 08:44 PM - Post#366849
In response to LocalTiger
Perkins is a wing? I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention because he seemed to be handling the ball and setting up the offense a lot.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1149
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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04-03-24 11:21 AM - Post#366902
In response to SRP
One good thing about the NIL--it appears to have broken the stranglehold that shoe companies had on NCAA basketball.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/march-madness- how-the...
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-03-24 04:02 PM - Post#366914
In response to SRP
Yes, he brought the ball up some. But he is a wing (and at times played as an undersized 4 for Penn).
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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04-09-24 03:51 PM - Post#367168
In response to SomeGuy
Every mid-major conference is now just a minor league for the Power 5. (The Missouri Valley has been hit especially hard this year; at last count, something like 10 of the 15 players on their all-conference teams are in the portal). This isn't going to change, either, unless they get rid of the instant transfer rules, which I doubt will happen. The most I could see is something like limiting guys to one instant transfer during their careers (unless their coach leaves) as a reaction against the players going to three or four schools in four years.
In that light, the Ivies might actually be doing a little bit better than other mid-majors at retaining players. The degree is still worth something. Guys like not only Lee and Pierce, but also Lilly, Okpara, Poulakidas, Mbeng, DLR, and Nazir Williams would probably all be in the portal right now if this was the America East and not the Ivies. So it definitely lowers our ceiling a lot, but the floor may not be as low as we fear (although let's see if all those guys do end up staying).
The big question is what ends up happening with the big conferences. As we've said before, it seems pretty clear that the ACC is on the verge of imploding; Clemson and Florida State both want to join the SEC as soon as possible, and others won't be far behind. I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC and Big 12 try to prevent their remaining teams from being picked off by merging. That'd give them the size to try to negotiate something closer to the money the SEC and Big 10 are getting from football. If they don't do that, they'll both be gone within the next five years or so. Although even if they do, it still might not be enough.
That leaves the Big East, which even in its lesser form has still managed to win four of the past eight championships. It's not going to go away, although it will get harder for them to compete at such a high level if it starts routinely getting outbid on players, and, more importantly, its coaches. (Hurley shows how much having a coach who runs a modern offense matters nowadays). It probably needs to get bigger too if it wants to get the bigger TV deal it needs to not fall too far behind. That would probably mean trying to poach the best two or three schools from the other basketball-only conferences—Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Francisco, and maybe Santa Clara from the WCC; Dayton, VCU, Loyola Chicago, and possibly George Mason from the A10; and maybe even Bradley or Drake of the MVC (although Drake just lost its coach); and, of course, any of Duke, Stanford, or Notre Dame if the ACC did completely fall apart and they weren't scooped up by any other conference.
Within 10 years, there could be easily be two or three big football conferences and one big basketball-only conference that between them would encompass something like 80 schools. Mid-major teams will lose most of their top talent every year, and will get younger and less competitive as a result. That'll make it easier for the big boys to argue that smaller conferences don't deserve automatic bids anymore, which could lead to a "compromise" where the tournament is either expanded, or more autobid teams have to face off in play-in games, or both.
Lots to not look forward to.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-09-24 06:09 PM - Post#367173
In response to mobrien
Big 12 has been trying to add Gonzaga as a basketball only member.
Also rumored to be pursuing Duke as the ACC implodes.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-09-24 06:47 PM - Post#367175
In response to SomeGuy
Yes, he brought the ball up some. But he is a wing (and at times played as an undersized 4 for Penn).
Perkins was forced into bringing the ball up court much more in the weeks Slajchert was out. But he was never a PG.
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