jeromelh
Junior
Posts: 215
Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 08:19 PM - Post#366751
In response to TigerFan
You are correct that Princeton's financial aid package is getting better. My point is that this has little to do with the Tigers' basketball success and has little to no effect on recruiting. Take a look at this year's starting 5. Aside from Dalen Davis (who comes off the bench), none of these players were highly recruited coming out of high school. As an aside, both Yale and Harvard have more highly touted players coming in this fall.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2276
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 08:33 PM - Post#366752
In response to TigerFan
You might be surprised with how generous the packages are these days and how much a high-performing athlete could "net" on NIL vs. Financial Aid.
Princeton now provides 100% financial aid coverage (entirely with grants, not loans) for families with parent's AGI up to $100,000. According to my review of the online estimator, a student making $50k (from NIL or any other source) from a family with parental AGI at $100k and $50k in non-retirement investments would lose $8,000 off their financial aid package (netting $42k). A student earning $100k from NIL (or any other source) from such afamily would lose $21k of their financial aid package (netting $79k).
Students at Princeton with parental AGI of $150k and $50k in non-retirement investments now only pay $15k to attend Princeton. A student earning $100k through NIL (or any other source), with such parents would only lose about $30k of financial aid (netting up around $70k).
Interesting, and yes, I am surprised!
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1891
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 08:42 PM - Post#366753
In response to jeromelh
Princeton is bringing in some terrific players next year. I don't get too excited about what the ratings systems say but according to Verbal Commits, Princeton is bringing in a stronger group than Harvard or Yale:
Jack Stanton (3.9 stars)
Malik Abdullahi (3.63 stars)
Peyton Seals (3.35 stars)
CJ Happy (3 stars)
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-30-24 09:26 PM - Post#366755
In response to jeromelh
Hi jeromelh,
Please let me know if this addresses your question:
Princeton, with their very generous financial aid package, may be the least impacted across the Ivies as it may take a larger NIL check to entice a player away from Princeton relative to other Ivies. But while Princeton has yet to a lose a player, I believe it would be naïve to think that it is not just a matter of time – the NIL money in the men’s game is too large to believe loyalty has not become transactional.
Mitch has to consider this in his recruitment calculus, especially as he finds hidden gems. Would / Should a Princeton player remain if they could make $1mm plus in NIL elsewhere? Wolf should put every Ivy team on notice that a talented 7-footer may not last 8 semesters. Therefore an Ivy coach has to think twice about building an Ivy recruiting cycle around a talented 7-footer.
Even if Princeton weathers the NIL portal plague better than the league, they are indirectly impacted in two ways. The 24-25 league will be weaker than we all expected a month ago. Likely means fewer out of conference wins and lower RPIs for league teams. Winning the league will be less meaningful come NCAA seeding or NIT invite time. Also will eventually hurt overall league recruiting. Talented players want to play against high caliber competition. If the League falls from a high mid major RPI to again bottom quartile conference, fewer high mid major players will want to go Ivy.
Stepping back – what is the current reality for a college coach to build a winning team for 24-25, 25-26? Find the best five freshman in the country who may be one & done and need to learn the college game or find the five solid well coached rising juniors or seniors who have a better understanding of the college game and whose bodies have had more weight room time that incoming freshman. Would USC be as good if they did not have their “three nerds” to complement JuJu.
As the COVID extra year has come to an end, you have to believe any first or second team Ivy player will be more in NIL focus. Should be less expensive than other mid-majors who provide full scholarships, and some level of NIL. The only questions can the two parties come to a financial agreement?
Edited by JDP on 03-30-24 09:31 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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jeromelh
Junior
Posts: 215
Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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03-30-24 09:34 PM - Post#366756
In response to TigerFan
I respectfully disagree with your assessment. For example, Harvard's recruit Robert Hinton is much better than anyone Princeton is bringing in. Depending on the site, he is a 3 star or 4 star. He is a top 100 recruit. Verbal recruits has Hinton at 2.86 which is below anyone Princeton is bringing in.
https://www.on3.com/college/harvard-crims on/news/2...
Yale's Jordan BRATHWAITE was on the verge of getting major college before he committed to Yale as was Yale recruit Celiscar who already had offers from Florida Atlantic and New Mexico State.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1891
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-30-24 10:14 PM - Post#366758
In response to jeromelh
I'm not claiming anything other than having looked at one site (Verbal Commits), which ranked the incoming Tigers higher than Yale and Harvard's classes. Period. Its a silly debate until they have spent a couple of years at each school.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 05:58 AM - Post#366761
In response to TigerFan
Couple things. One, I finished not so long ago paying tuition at one of the Ancient Eight for my kid, who had over 20 D1 offers, but chose an Ivy. As I had, so probably my fault. Yes, the aid packages made it doable, but you know what it wasn't? Free. My kid's AAU and HS teammates paid zero and actually got checks every semester for cost of attendance. Yes, some even chased NIL checks, too.Sure, they didn't get the Ivy stamp, but this is what the Ivys are competing against.
As far as the sky not falling, uh, well, I'd say the best young players in the league running for the door over the past couple weeks sure feels like a signal of something bad happening. If you're a high level high school kid and you see Mack, Wolf, and Perkins exiting the Ivys - and trust me, high school kids and their coaches take note of all this stuff - the chances you'll seriously consider this league have for sure decreased.
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jeromelh
Junior
Posts: 215
Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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03-31-24 10:42 AM - Post#366762
In response to CM
If you look at the quality of the Ivy basketball recruits, I don't think there has been any fall off in quality. So I don't believe that the aid packages are having any major impact at this time.
That said, I think the NIL money and easy ability to transfer will indeed devastate the Ivy League. Yale, Penn and Harvard have already been dealt devastating blows with quality players leaving the program.
For some reason (so far), Princeton seems to have escaped the tranfer epidemic.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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03-31-24 11:29 AM - Post#366763
In response to jeromelh
Maybe, but I think you're looking backwards and saying' Well, look, the League still gets good players.' But all I'm saying is the decisions by top guys to transfer will, in the future, for sure have a deleterious effect in bringing in more quality players.
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jeromelh
Junior
Posts: 215
Age: 81
Reg: 03-30-17
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03-31-24 11:34 AM - Post#366764
In response to CM
OK. Let's see what happens.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 797
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-31-24 11:47 AM - Post#366765
In response to CM
a couple of seemingly contradictory things could be true at once....
the recruiting could be fine for a while.
why? because of the portal high school kids who are mid major+ arent getting offers. i coached two this year on an elite team of 12. they might do a prep school or juco but a few years ago they would have 10+ offers mid major+
coaches are prioritizing the elite kids and the portal.
but at the same time you lose any kids who become elite college players-mack wolf etc.
so you stay younger which hurts relative but you dont fall off a cliff.
is this my prediction? not necessarily. there are a lot of variables and i am still net bearish on the implications for the ivies.
but so far not surprised by any developments so we'll see
big picture-the SEC and big 10 will swallow the world anyway in football. that ripple hits basketball in some way. nobody will graduate there will be an uproar;the ncaa tournament complexion could change; really who knows how far or where it goes if no congressional input.
case in point yale. wolf leaves which is a huge blow. does anyone else follow in 30 days? i dont know.
but if not the roster might not be optimized short term but you have a kid possibly stepping into the void next year who was higher recruited than Wolf with multiple power 5 offers and a huge ceiling.
now if he performs with more minutes will he leave? possibly.
will the next kid from dallas w UT and Houston offers follow him? i doubt it.
but there are so many good players now in the grassroots ranks that who's to say you dont find underrecruited gems-miye onis xaivian lee caden pierce even danny wolf etc etc
am i positive about this? not really but anything is possible.
i certainly dont think the ivy league will change it's policy on scholarships or even culturally collectives
lastly i could see collectives coming under federal scrutiny also for tax and other reasons
i wrote about this months ago but dark money pools , the distribution policy and the IRS can be a toxic mix.
thats not a prediction but a possibility.
i had my tax team spend some time on it and thats their view.
they wrote me a 3 page conclusion. it's astounding
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-31-24 01:38 PM - Post#366766
In response to CM
I think you are assuming kids are planning to go somewhere for four years. I don’t think that is the case in this environment. They aren’t going to shy away from a place just because kids are transferring away — mainly because kids are transferring away from any school you go to right now. What Dingle, Wolf, and Mack are showing is that the Ivy can be a great platform for getting you into a high major program. That could actually increase the league’s ability to attract talent.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3674
Reg: 02-06-10
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 02:29 PM - Post#366767
In response to SomeGuy
What Dingle, Wolf, and Mack are showing is that the Ivy can be a great platform for getting you into a high major program. That could actually increase the league’s ability to attract talent.
That's a good point. While being a high major springboard robs us of seeing Ivy talent in their prime, it's still possible to build a very good team (and a potential NCAA Cinderella) with underclassmen stars and upperclassmen glue guys.
After all, the Top 3 players in the league this season were sophomores (Pierce, Lee and Wolf). And Mack was a Top 10 player as a freshman. Not to mention there will be the occasional star who does want to stay (e.g. Lee and Pierce, knock on wood).
I also suspect that many Ivy stars will find that going high major isn't all it's cracked up to be. Unless you really need that NIL money - and some do - it's no fun watching your PPG drop from 20 to 12 or getting benched during crunch time.
And judging by the many NBA scouts who came to see Xaivian Lee play as a mere soph, I question how much more "NBA exposure" they're getting as the 4th option on a Power 5 team. Being a big fish in a small pond can be a very good thing.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4914
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-31-24 03:52 PM - Post#366769
In response to gokinsmen
Judging from the host of mid-major transfers starting on the P5 teams in this year’s Sweet Sixteen, this issue does not seem like an Ivy problem more than a mid-major problem. James has rightly noted that we are not currently in a stable institutional equilibrium even with respect to the tax status of NIL collectives, much less conference roles and alignments, so the “something must be done, this is something, therefore it must be done” approach is particularly misguided right now.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 04:56 PM - Post#366772
In response to gokinsmen
Yes. Obviously you can get to the NBA from the Ivy. Dingle decided to use the platform to get to the Big East. He probably hurt his NBA stock by doing so.
Dingle, Boudreaux, and Smith all went from high volume scorer to more of a role player at a high major. It speaks well of all of them that they could make that transition, but some guys are going to prefer to be the big dog.
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digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 468
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
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03-31-24 05:31 PM - Post#366773
In response to SomeGuy
Maybe the Princeton or Cornell folks can give some insight, but the Earl departure bothers me much more than the player transfers. The transfers hurt, but they are what everyone in college basketball is experiencing. We're not immune, and yes the league needs a plan to address. Earl leaving makes me suspicious there isn't even a thought of one.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3674
Reg: 02-06-10
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Ivy NIL strategy?
03-31-24 08:02 PM - Post#366777
In response to digamma
Earl leaving feels like a simple salary issue. He's 47 with a family and has never had a real payday. W&M surely offered him more than he was getting as a first-time HC at Cornell. Before that he was a 9-year assistant at Princeton. Not much money to be made as an assistant anywhere in the Ivy.
By contrast, Mitch was a 11-year assistant in the Big Ten before being an 13-year HC at his alma mater, where he's been very successful. He may not be making seven-figures a year, but he's made a lot more money than Brian has in his career.
So yeah, I don't see Earl leaving as a red flag. Now if Amaker were to leave Harvard, then that would be a lot more alarming.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 797
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-31-24 08:28 PM - Post#366780
In response to SRP
this is also true.
ncstate has 4 "grad" students which is code for 23+yr olds.
we all know no one is graduating who transfers 3+ times or it's unlikely (another possible catalyst for congressional reform)
uconn which looks like an nba team so far... but arguably two most productive and consistent players are from east carolina and loyola md, originally.
i am really disappointed to lose wolf but i expected it and i see the entire issue as increasingly grey and hard to predict going forward.
i guess i just hope that aletan blows up and leaves too.
and then you find another which isnt probable but possible
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 424
Reg: 10-11-18
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04-01-24 06:23 AM - Post#366783
In response to SomeGuy
I'd counter, if you're not planning on using an Ivy to get an Ivy degree (which seems like the greatest value in the proposition), why the heck would you pay for even a single year of college if you had other options?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-01-24 03:28 PM - Post#366791
In response to CM
I think the answer isn’t all that different from what it has always been. You want to play at a high major but don’t have an offer. You’re a high academics kid, so you decide to go Ivy instead of another mid major, because the degree will help you more in the long run. The difference now is that between the transfer portal, NIL, and changes in the way kids think about degrees and careers now, you’re not all-in for 4 years. You’re just all-in until you’re not (which is why Nana can tweet about getting to work for next year at Brown one day and enter the portal a week later). So now kids will come to play at an Ivy school thinking it can be a springboard to a high major, or a path to a valuable degree. They win either way. Penn used to avoid kids they viewed as transfer risks (who knows — maybe we still do, and that explains why we didn’t offer Nana). I’m suggesting we lean into recruiting kids who want to play at a higher level.
I don’t disagree with your point about scholarships at all. I doubt the current policy will change, so I am just thinking about how to sell the school within the existing policy, given other changes to the rules and world around us.
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