Anonymous
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01-14-05 12:44 PM - Post#2312
I'm very sad.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: My thoughts on Penn Basketball
01-14-05 01:45 PM - Post#2313
In response to
Me too Jeff. But remember. Everything in life is cyclical. This is the secret to the SI jinx. When a team is playing well enough to merit the cover of SI, the law of averages requires that they come back to earth. Similarly, Penn will turn it around, at least to some extent. This may not be an Ivy title season or even a second place finish, but the Quaque will be back.
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x10
newbie
Posts: 11
Reg: 11-30-04
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Re: My thoughts on Penn Basketball
01-14-05 03:03 PM - Post#2314
In response to 10Q
Saddest thing is remembering how close Dunphy came to taking the LaSalle job.
It would have been fun watching this group of players with a fresh coaching staff with new ideas.
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x10
newbie
Posts: 11
Reg: 11-30-04
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Re: My thoughts on Penn Basketball
01-14-05 05:52 PM - Post#2315
In response to
The Quakers should look better in a hurry.
Sagarin has Siena at #279 nationally - below every team in the Ivies except Dartmouth.
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Chuck
Masters Student
Posts: 995
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: My thoughts on Penn Basketball
01-14-05 07:16 PM - Post#2316
In response to x10
Sagarin had Rider at about #210, I think, before they played Penn and that was a home game. This one is away...time for people to step up. A loss to a team this bad would probably put the last nail in this year's coffin.
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light blue heavy
maximus
Posts: 164
Reg: 11-22-04
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this year's coffin?
01-14-05 07:56 PM - Post#2317
In response to Chuck
Chuck:
In response to AQ's post that Penn will win the league, you wrote this:
Quote:
AQ, I think you're observations (and prediction) are on the mark. One thing to add...despite the pre-season expectations, Princeton is very beatable...very, very beatable. Judging from the results so far, Penn has just as good a chance of beating PU as they do of beating us.
If Zoller or one of the guys on the bench can really step up I think Penn will win the league. One thing I would also guess is that neither Penn or PU goes undefeated against Brown and Columbia.
And now you're referring to this year as dead? THIS WAS TWO WEEKS AGO ( http://www.basketball-u.com/ubbthreads/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=1728&an=0&page=2#1728 )!
Listen, I love to hear Penn fans moan and wallow as much as (no, more than) the next Columbia fan, but come on. If I had to bet my life on where Penn finishes in the league this year, I would still say second.
Spare yourself the anguish. UNC lost to Santa Clara this year: s*** happens, but Penn is still 0-0 where it matters
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Chuck
Masters Student
Posts: 995
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 08:16 PM - Post#2318
In response to light blue heavy
Let's see...that post was before the USF, UIC and Rider games...three very poor efforts by Penn. This is not a team that's looked like its going in the right direction. A loss to one of the worst teams in D-I would signal to me that things have pretty much fallen off a cliff. My general observation is that Dunphy's teams performance in the league is very predictable based upon their non-league play. We'll see...I doubt Penn loses to Siena. That would really be hitting rock bottom.
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seas2k4
Junior
Posts: 274
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 08:27 PM - Post#2319
In response to Chuck
"My general observation is that Dunphy's teams performance in the league is very predictable based upon their non-league play."
Not in the last few years, Chuck. 2002-03 saw us lose to Drexel, Delaware, get smoked by Colorado and beaten soundly by Joes before running the table in the Ivies, while the year before saw us beat Ga. Tech, split with St. Joes, win the Big Five, beat Iowa St, E. Illinois and narrowly miss a victory against the Illini before struggling through the Conference.
-seas
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Anonymous
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 08:49 PM - Post#2320
In response to seas2k4
uh, we struggled through the conference... and won 11 games in a row while winning the league, and that league may have been the best in the last 20 years. This team ain't that team
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seas2k4
Junior
Posts: 274
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 09:04 PM - Post#2321
In response to
uh, we struggled through the conference.... losing to columbia at home, harvard, and yale, struggling through yale the second time (down by 7 at half?) and being down by 12 to columbia at half.
as for these being two different teams, thats irrelevant to his original point about preseason play of dunphy's teams being indicative of league success...
-seas
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 09:05 PM - Post#2322
In response to
But Jeff, they started the season 2-3 in the league, before they ran off the 11 straight. And that was coming off the dreadful '00-'01 season. They were seriously struggling, particularly given the weight of expectations on them, and Toole was not 100% because of injury. If you had taken a vote on the board the morning after the Yale road loss that year, asking whether you thought they were going to pull out of their tailspin, I doubt you would have gotten more than 10% of Penn fans voting "yes."
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SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 09:19 PM - Post#2323
In response to Chip Bayers
5 reasons that team was different:
1. Ugonna, the best player this league has seen in years, and the best we might see for a while, if forever
2. Toole, a point guard that could penetrate, hit shots over people, and create looks for teammates
3. Koko, another athletic wing that could create shots for himself or teammates, as well as hit the open jumper
4. Schiffner, a big guard that consistently hit shots
5. Begley as a 5th option, who could hit shots when defenders backed off him to guard others
No one on this team is any where near any of those 4 at this point. Hell, Begley isn't even near the Begley of that team at this point (though I still don't think that is at all his fault). As much as I wasn't a huge fan of Chubb, Klatsky, and Copp, they're miles ahead of this year's bench, as well as most of our starters.
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Anonymous
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 09:23 PM - Post#2324
In response to seas2k4
And I'm saying, if you take a longer view, there's no doubt that it is an indicator. 1-8 or 0-8 in 2001, do terrible in the league. 2002, we do well outside of the conference and ultimately win the league (again, best league ever in the last 20 years). 2003, lose some games, but also win some big games (crushing USC), win league. Losing to Colorado (there) and St. Joe's is no shame. Drexel and Delware, eh.
Now, it's possible that in the middle of a season we can lose perspective and we'll end up thinking how great wins were versus Bucknell and Qpac and how losses to USF, UIC, and Rider really weren't that bad. But don't tell me you can't tell a few things by looking at the non-conf games. With the way Dunph mis-manages the non-conf and plays it like it's Game 7 of the World Series, you can darn well tell how the season's gonna go.
Chip, I'm not sure what your point is with the Andy Toole injury. I think that's an explanation to why we went 2-3 to open up the Ivies despite having a strong team. And I don't know what your point is about whether the board thought we'd win the Ivies. Not saying there isn't a point, just don't understand it and how it relates to mine.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1346
Reg: 12-08-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 09:24 PM - Post#2325
In response to seas2k4
Just stumbled here by mistake - saw this string and thought I would chime in before leaving-
(1) Long-time readers know I have commented earlier that UP fans are notable in their manic-depressiveness (sp) - a couple losses and the team is terrible, a couple wins and we're talking about NCAA seeds.
(2) If you were a betting person, you'd be out a lot of money over the years betting that Penn would be out of the race by mid-season or finish mid-conference.
(3) The Ivy season is long, and it's very, very common for momentum to suddenly build (or fade) dramatically from early Ivy season results.
(4) I hope the title of this string is right, but I'm not holding my breath.
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seas2k4
Junior
Posts: 274
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 09:50 PM - Post#2326
In response to SFlaQuaker
SFQ:
It is interesting that you comment as to how "no one on this team is any where near any of those 4 at this point," and that "they're miles ahead of this year's bench," yet you are one of the first in line to bash Coach Dunphy regarding this year's performance. I understand that those teams were FAR more talented than this years, but wouldn't you cut the man some slack, considering you are admitting that this year the talent on the team is down.
It seems unfair to bash the coaching staff while also recognizing that this year's team is way off the talent of year's past, no? The coaches can only do so much.
-seas
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SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 11:18 PM - Post#2327
In response to seas2k4
First off, the talent level is the coach's fault. Period. Especially in the ivies where you don't lose guys to the NBA earlier than expected, and key players rarely leave a team. Superior talent was always one of Penn's biggest assets, and that was what gave Dunphy his titles. I don't see that superiority like I used to, and that falls on Dunphy's shoulders.
Secondly, if the players aren't as good, maybe you need to adapt your system to maximize what they can do. Maybe Ibby could be as good as Toole at driving and shooting over guys; he's shown the ability in the past. However, he isn't put in a spot where he can utilize this. We don't have great shooters or an unstopable player in the post; maybe it's time to change things up and run more.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-14-05 11:51 PM - Post#2328
In response to
Sparman makes my implicit point explicit.
Sure, the '01-'02 team had a couple of impressive early wins. They also had some dreadful non-league and early Ivy season losses that were, if anything, worse than this year's, which made you think by early February that either their talent level was overrated, or their desire was non-existent. The current losing streak in close games is distressing, yes, especially when it includes a home loss to a team of Rider's caliber. But at least this team has shown more than once they can blow out teams that we would expect them to blow out.
The lesson of the non-league schedule for the '01'-'02 team was that they occasionally could blow out a USC, but that more often they simply weren't going to show up, regardless of the level of competition. And in fact, they didn't show up in league play until their backs were so firmly against the wall that their spinal columns were cracking holes in the plaster. Even then they nearly blew a couple of those must-win games.
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Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-15-05 12:00 AM - Post#2329
In response to SFlaQuaker
Plus, I'm still not convinced this year's team is that un-talented. They're certainly playing now like their talent is limited, but the team that went on a 37-11 run in 15 minutes against Drexel didn't look that bad. What about the team that went up 22-7 in the first 10:30 against what's turned out to be a pretty good Bucknell team? The only reason that game was close at all was because the Quakers (39, 36, 31, 30 for Danley) died down the stretch.
It's hard to imagine 37-11 run now if Penn were playing Swarthmore.
Saying they were making shots then is too easy. Have other teams adjusted to what Penn does and Penn hasn't adjusted back? Or is it something else? Has the chemistry gone south? Two things that have certainly gone south is Penn's ability to successfully push the ball and their ability to hit the three. Since Zoller was hurt at the beginning of the season also, he's not the difference. Kach was shooting under 20 percent from three so he's not the difference. What causes players to stop running and start missing long jumpers? Hmmmm.....
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seas2k4
Junior
Posts: 274
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-15-05 12:10 AM - Post#2330
In response to SFlaQuaker
SFQ:
Has something changed from last week, when you wrote "Great recruiter, w/out a doubt" in another post in regards to Dunphy?
Our talent level lies in the youth- both the freshman and sophomore classes have members who are contributing and will contribute even more down the line (especially if Kach returns and Grandieri gets healthy). No Coach in the country can get four straight great classes, esp. not in the Ivy Leauge where it is difficult to recruit a kid when U, Koko, and Toole are playing ahead of him, with no hope of any of the three leaving early and freeing up playing time before they graduate.
Having players who "aren't as good" is what has happened to the six other Ivy teams for the past decades, do you blame their ineptitude on their coaches for not adapting, too?
-seas
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SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: this year's coffin?
01-15-05 12:31 AM - Post#2331
In response to seas2k4
Yes, over his tenure, Dunphy has been a great recruiter. Talent-wise, I think this is simply a down year, due (as you said) to the difficulty of recruiting kids when they know they likely wont play much for two years. Unlike others, I'm not convinced that the talent level won't rebound within a year or two, both as our young guys mature and more talented young guys come it.
As for the other ivy coaches, its hard for me to say, as I don't follow them nearly as closely or watch them on a game by game basis as much. All I know is that this Penn team should have beaten Rider, and should have won at least 1 or 2 of the other games. Like I've said numerous times now, I'm not distressed because we lost. I'm distressed because we lost without gaining anything, which falls squarely on Dunphy's shoulders.
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