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Username Post: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction        (Topic#483)
Chuck 
Masters Student
Posts: 995
Chuck
Reg: 11-21-04
01-22-05 04:22 PM - Post#2566    

Non-conference play is pretty much over and while the league, as a whole, has shown some real improvement its hard to imagine that anybody other than a 'P' has a shot at winning the league title. So, to start some discussion on a snowy day, here's my take:

1)Princeton-Tigers really should win the league title. Though, not because they're a terribly good team. Their shooting isn't reliable enough, the players haven't seemed to really embrace the new Scott regimen...but, they've got as much or more talent as Penn and they're more consistent. That should be enough. Final record: 12-2.

2)Penn-Prior to the Siena/Laugh-aye-ette games things looked like they might really spiral down. Fortunately, that didn't happen. At the same time, I don't take either of those games as meaning a whole lot. Penn's shown they can pretty soundly beat bad teams. What they haven't shown is that they can beat decent teams or win close games. This is a pattern that's been developing over the past few years and doesn't look like its going to change. Given the fact that there are always Ivy games that 'shouldn't' be close...but are close, its hard to imagine Penn won't lose a couple of games that they shouldn't. That will be enough to give the title to PU. Final record: 11-3

3)Yale-hard to know what's really going on with this group. They've played pretty well the past month and look to be one notch above the rest of the league. Their schedule is highly problematic and probably dooms them from actually competing for the title. The Jones magic has worn off and he just doesn't have the horses (quality and quantity) to make a real run. Three losses to the P's and a couple of surprises yield a final record of: 9-5

4)Columbia-things are moving in the right direction at the heights...thankfully!! At the same time, a little realism is in order. CU's victories have come against teams with an average Pomeroy rating of 285. They've managed to lose to some pretty weak teams. It'll be another year or two before the fruits of JJ's recruiting starts to pay dividends. Final record: 8-6

5)Brown-hard not to like Miller and Forte...but, this isn't a good team. Their wins have come against the dregs with an average Pomeroy of 275. They've also lost to some pretty weak teams. Final record: 6-8

6)Dartmouth-the coaching change in Hanover is going to give a bump to a program that's been in trouble for so long its hard to remember when they were any good. Nonetheless, they finish ahead of H and the collapsing Big Red. Final Record: 4-10

7)Harvard-what can one say? Two close game with Dartmouth don't auger well...however, unlike D things will get worse as the season goes on...not better. Final record: 3-11

8)Cornell-just don't have any good feelings about the Big Red, another dismal season is in the offing...maybe time has run out for the coach. Final record: 3-11

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-22-05 07:05 PM - Post#2567    
    In response to Chuck

Hey Chuck, you could have posted this on the main board since you did not pick Penn to win.

I agree with your basic order of finish (which pretty much follows the consensus) except the part about Dartmouth escaping the cellar. Harvard will finish ahead of them, primarily because I think they will post at least one of those upsets we know are coming. Cornell is a mystery to me. They could win as many as 6 and as few as 2.

Penn's best hope for the title is a sweep of the Tigers. I am convinced that this will be easier than avoiding 2-3 losses on the road to lesser teams.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-22-05 09:34 PM - Post#2568    
    In response to Chuck

Chuck - Cornell just beat Columbia by 30 in Ithaca.

 
Chuck 
Masters Student
Posts: 995
Chuck
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-22-05 10:14 PM - Post#2569    
    In response to AsiaSunset

Quote:

Chuck - Cornell just beat Columbia by 30 in Ithaca.




Well, I guess that means the Big Red already have 1/3 of their league victories in the bag... Yeah, maybe I am a bit optimistic about the Lions...everybody knows I've got a soft spot for the boys light blue...

 
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-22-05 10:26 PM - Post#2570    
    In response to Chuck

I think we learned today that Columbia can beat really bad teams by single digits at home when they manage to go 10-13 from beyond the arc. Otherwise they get blown out.


 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 02:39 PM - Post#2571    
    In response to Chuck

I see potential flaws in Princeton, too. With that being said, has any Ivy team made it this late in the season with a top 30 RPI? I can't remember how PU's great team of the late '90s did in the RPI, but I seem to recall that they finished in the low 30s, slightly above where Penn finished in '02. I think 14-0 is a real possibility.

As for the rest, I think Brown has a real shot at 3rd place. They always get better as the year goes on (contrast Yale), and they don't have any fewer top 200 wins or any more sub 200 losses than Yale (they've each got 2 of each). I think Columbia could end up ahead of Yale, too, though Saturday had to be discouraging.

 
x10 
newbie
Posts: 11

Reg: 11-30-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 03:19 PM - Post#2572    
    In response to SomeGuy

Princeton's RPI is a total joke.
The number that I think is the best indicator of future success is Sagarin's Predictor rating:

Penn #76 in the country at 79.25
Princeton #101 in the country at 77.56

 
Chuck 
Masters Student
Posts: 995
Chuck
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 04:13 PM - Post#2573    
    In response to x10

Quote:

Princeton's RPI is a total joke.




Yeah, guess this shows how flawed the RPI calculation system is. My feeling is that the Pomeroy ratings are the most accurate. PU's RPI will certainly take a serious slump as they play their way through the Ivy schedule.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 04:15 PM - Post#2574    
    In response to x10

The RPI is far from perfect, as we've discussed around here for years. With that being said, I don't think there have been many (any?) seasons where the pre-conference RPI leader didn't go on to win the conference. Penn may have been above Princeton last year. That's the only possibility I can think of.

What makes Sagarin's Predictor rating a better indicator, outside of the fact they picked Penn? I don't think there's any question that Princeton's overall performance out of conference has been markedly better than Penn's; how does Sagarin use that data to come to the conclusion that Penn will perform better against the conference?

 
Brian Martin 
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Brian Martin
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 05:12 PM - Post#2575    
    In response to SomeGuy

Predictor compares scores only. Penn has won a few games by big margins. Princeton has won closer games and plays lower-scoring games in general.
Sagarin's ELO Chess, which ignores scores and cares only whether a team won or lost, has Princeton at 38 and Penn at 130. Penn wins games when they have a big run or two and open up a double-digit lead. They lose games that are back-and-forth, possession-to-possession. That is a bit of a simplification, but not nearly as simple as comparing scores. Princeton has not had many big runs this year. They win by not giving up runs and keeping games in the 50s. Their RPI is so high because the new adjustments rewarded them for playing so many road games. Road wins are magnified. Road losses are minimized.

 
x10 
newbie
Posts: 11

Reg: 11-30-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 05:56 PM - Post#2576    
    In response to Brian Martin

I don't want to get into a debate about which rating is a better indicator. I'll just say that year after year I trust Sagarin's Predictor. I'll also say that this year I see no evidence that Princeton's players are better than Penn's or that Princeton's out of conference results have been stronger than Penn's.

All of the people picking Princeton to win the league are saying, in effect, "Princeton's coaches and players are smarter and tougher than Penn's and they will win the close tough games that Penn will lose".

I don't buy it. I know it happened last year - I just don't buy that it will happen again this year.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 06:20 PM - Post#2577    
    In response to x10

I think we'll learn a lot tomorrow night.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 06:29 PM - Post#2578    
    In response to x10

Well, I think if you asked people who the best players in the league are, you'd get to both Wallace and Venable pretty quickly. Begley's the only Penn player who would belong in that conversation right now.

On the issue of out of conference results, Princeton has a better record playing a tougher schedule. They have yet to dump a home game or a game against a team outside the top 100; Penn managed to do both against Rider.

I don't agree with your characterization of those who pick Princeton to win. I don't think Scott is necessarily any smarter than Dunphy (if anything he's playing away from the strengths of his team more than Dunphy is this year).

I don't think you'll see nearly as many close calls for Princeton this time around, in part b/c their defense appears vastly improved. So while they might dump a game to Penn, I don't think they'll be in danger with the rest of the league.

 
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 06:31 PM - Post#2579    
    In response to Brian Martin

The other way of looking at this is that Princeton has no significant wins, close or otherwise, and is drafting into the "revised" RPI top 20 on the strength of losing road games to Duke and Syracuse when they're having good years. If you compare their records against 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 200+, their results have been very comparable:




Princeton Penn
1-50 0-3 0-4
51-100 3-2 2-2
101-200 1-0 0-1 (both games going to OT)
200+ 4-0 4-0

Their performances against common opponents have also been comparable: 2-1, with wins against Bucknell and Lafayette, and close losses to Temple. The only significant difference is that Penn just destroyed a Lafayette team on the road which PU struggled to overcome in the same venue back in November. That's not a suggestion that single game comparisons are particularly useful - it's just the most recent piece of data.

Like every other Penn fan, I remain concerned that because of Dunphy's bench usage, Penn stands a greater chance than Princeton of dropping a close game in league, particularly on the road. That concern is dampened only slightly by the knowledge that their 4 wins so far over Ivy level competition (the 200+ teams) have all been by double digits.


 
Chuck 
Masters Student
Posts: 995
Chuck
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 07:20 PM - Post#2580    
    In response to x10

Quote:

All of the people picking Princeton to win the league are saying, in effect, "Princeton's coaches and players are smarter and tougher than Penn's and they will win the close tough games that Penn will lose".




I'm not sure that's exactly what people are say... Yes, its fairly easy to say that Scott may be a better coach than Dunphy (I would be the last to disagree with that statement!!). But, as far as the players go, I think the issue is whether Scott has a better set of players for his system than Dunphy has for his. Until and unless Penn shows it can effectively play the 'motionless' offense (or Dunphy consistently pushes for a more uptempo style of play) its only logical to think that PU is in a stronger position than Penn to win the league.

 
Brian Martin 
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Brian Martin
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League Analysis/Prediction
01-24-05 07:57 PM - Post#2581    
    In response to x10

Even if you trust Predictor, you need to remember that it is averaging results. Several Penn games are as much as +/- 20 points from the rating. Predictor says Providence at home is 5 points better than Penn. It stays Penn at home is 5 points better than Drexel but 9 points better than Rider.
Princeton has not had as large a deviation from its average performance. The two worst results were the ugly loss at UTEP and the home win over Loyola MD when the margin was in the mid-20s before it closed in garbage time.

 
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