AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4366
Reg: 11-21-04
|
01-23-05 11:47 AM - Post#2612
Looks like we caught the unlucky break of facing an improving SJU team. Well - anything is better than watching Jameer and Delonte beat our brains out again.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32870
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 02:27 PM - Post#2613
In response to AsiaSunset
Disagree...we played them pretty tough last year. It will be much worse to have our brains beaten out without those guys. As I see it, it all comes down to Ibby and Oz. If those guys get their shots and hit close to or over 50%, Penn has a serious chance to win. That might also free up Begley and Pettinella for other sources of offense. If not, looks like a "L". On the bright side, a loss is immaterial since only the Ivies matter this year. I want to see our A game, though.
|
Buckeye Quake
PhD Student
Posts: 1601
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 02:37 PM - Post#2614
In response to palestra38
For the upteenth time, I think this game comes down to how Dunphy uses his bench. If he freezes and plays Begs, Oz and Ibi 36-39 minutes then we don't have a chance. If he does what he's done the past two games and allows each of these guys to rest 7 minutes and sticks with his frontcourt sub pattern, we should be right there.
|
Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8299
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 02:43 PM - Post#2615
In response to AsiaSunset
This is the reason I always play close attention to what month we play SJU & Temple when the schedules come out. You want to catch them as early as possible because they tend to get better as the season progresses. Why? It's the coaching, of course. This is especially true in 'transition' years after major personnel turnover. SJU got off to a rocky start, but they are pretty good now if and only if they get open looks from outside. Penn is pretty good at denying those. I like our chances, but this game is more important as a test of our recent success before the real season starts.
|
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4366
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 02:47 PM - Post#2616
In response to Buckeye Quake
Agree - Especially this game where St Joe's may have to have it's 3 guards (Lee, Stachitas and Carroll) on the floor for most of the game.
|
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4366
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 02:54 PM - Post#2617
In response to Streamers
The match ups definitely look better this year. I think you hit on the key - denying Carroll and co open looks. Of course - that's what they'll be trying to do to us.
|
SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 03:51 PM - Post#2618
In response to AsiaSunset
The last few years, more than Nelson, West, and O'Conner, the deciding factor to me was second chances. We got killed on the boards. This seems (minus Jan) to be one of our better rebounding teams in recent memory, so if we can limit their second chances, we can win this game.
|
Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 05:53 PM - Post#2619
In response to palestra38
Disagree...You're playing with fire to lose every winnable non-League on the schedule and then expect to win all those games when League play starts.
St. Joe's is definitely playing better now but this is definitely a winnable game and - since I'd be surprised if the Quakers blow the Hawks out - it will probably be the type of close, physical, hard-fought, hostile, poorly officiated game that Penn needs to win.
Even during their recent stretch of better play, St. Joe's best wins are against RPI #82 UMASS. Those other A-10 wins were all against teams the RPI ranks below 200. The loss at Dayton? The RPI, for what it's worth, has Dayton ranked behind Penn. Granted, Joe's has no loss as bad as Penn's home loss to Rider, but they got clocked by USF and also lost to Drexel and Bucknell - two teams Penn beat rather easily. The Pomeroy ratings even have Penn ranked slightly ahead of St. Joe's, so, although I think Joe's will be maybe a 5-point favorite (just a guess), losing this game shouldn't be dismissed because now the important games start. This game is important. And the two teams are more evenly matched than they've been in awhile.
Keeping in mind that some guy could always go off or foul trouble could throw the whole game out of whack, I think the keys to the game are Ibby, Pettinella, Jan, Ebede and Whitehurst.
Oz and Begley are unlikely to find more comparable matchups than Stachitas and Carroll. Begley tends to rebound better and get more assists but otherwise they're four perimeter players around the same size who are primarily long-range shooters with Oz and Stachitas more likely to occasionally take it to the hoop. I'm going to guess that those four cross each other off (although if one of them comes up BIG that could change the game). But Lee has occasionally struggled running the team and Ibby is taller and longer. Assuming he guards Lee, which he may not, and vice-versa, I think Ibby needs to have a solid game on defense, take the ball to the basket and hit enough threes to keep them honest.
Pettinella needs to draw a foul or two on Jones. Jones is their top inside guy and I'm not sure if Penn can stop him so it would be nice to send him to the bench for awhile.
The Fikiel-Mallon matchup is interesting as they're both big guys with similar games although Mallon rebounds a little better. If Mallon goes off from three that could spell trouble.
Ebede and Whitehurst vs. the St. Joe's bench. Martelli may also go "Death March" depending on the game so this could be a war of attrition. But he has been getting some decent play out of the big guard Calathes (I think his name is) and Ebede needs to neutralize him. If Penn's starters need to neutralize him that could also spell trouble. And Whitehurst needs to pester Lee and Carroll and Stachitas and buy the starting guards some rest they're going to need. Any offense he gives will be a bonus, but he's going to have to play.
If the Quakers can pull this one out it will be their best win of the year and should position them for a nice Ivy run. And it would be nice for Begley's last Big 5 game to be a W.
|
SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: St Joe's
01-23-05 08:35 PM - Post#2620
In response to Howard Gensler
While the bigs have had issues, we've yet to really see any of our guards get in serious foul trouble, and I think this is a matchup where that could happen. St. Joe's is very active, I could see one of our started picking up 2 quick ones, necessitating major minutes from the bench.
|
