BreakinBison
Sophomore
Posts: 146
Reg: 01-23-06
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04-04-07 07:29 PM - Post#34299
This guy picks Holy Cross in 2007 - 2008 (scroll down if you click the link)
http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/
"For years now, Bucknell has seemed like a perennial favorite to win the Patriot League. Constantly bringing in the most talented players in the conference - players capable not just of of winning regular season games, but also of making noise in the Tournament. But this program might be in rebuilding mode, with the last of the major pieces from the Round of 32 runs in '06 and '05 finally leaving. They will sorely miss the experience and leadership of Chris McNaughton (12 ppg, 6 rpg) and Abe Badmus (8 ppg, 3 rpg). Not to mention the athleticism of Donald Brown (12 ppg, 7 rpg). Even more disturbing is that Bucknell hasn't seemed to cash in on their recent success with some elite recruits. Their recruiting class for 2007 isn't any better than any of the other top teams in the conference. Which means that if the Bison are going to return to the Tournament in 2008, they're going to have to rely on what they already have in the stable - the guys who were at the end of the bench in '05 and '06, and now need to lead. Guys like John Griffin (11 ppg, 3 apg, 37% 3-point shooting) and Darren Mastropaolo (6 ppg, 4 rpg, 54% shooting).
If Bucknell slides a spot or two next year, the most popular pick to win the Patriot League will most likely be Holy Cross. The Crusaders were, after all, the Patriot League's representative in this year's Tournament. They, too, are hard hit by graduation. Their two leading scorers (Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas - a combined 31 ppg) will both be gone. They return enough size to compete, with three regular players 6'8" or taller returning. Their biggest loss will probably be Thomas and his ballhandling abilities. They're probably going to need rising-Junior Pat Doherty (5 ppg, 2 apg) to run the offense next year. Either way, Holy Cross had a good set of sophomores and freshmen this past year. So even if they can't win the conference this year, they will remain a favorite for the 2008-09 season.
But I don't think they're going to have to wait that long. With no other team returning nearly enough to contend with the Bucknell-Holy Cross duopoly, Holy Cross is my preseason pick to win the Patriot League."
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KenZ
Postdoc
Posts: 2777
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-04-07 07:47 PM - Post#34300
In response to BreakinBison
i would agree that there is much uncertainty, but i would disagree with his assessment re our 2007 recruits. while the ultimate proof will be in performance, i believe it is clear that this class' potential is much higher than in the past and that is a direct consequence of the recent on court success. i would place our recruiting class at the top of the PL based on what we know at this point.
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Husky - Bison
maximus
Posts: 131
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-04-07 07:54 PM - Post#34301
In response to KenZ
Our last two recruiting classes have been tops in the League. Who was Tyree going to beat out? Abe? Are you sitting Donald Brown to start Behan? Negative.......the fact that those two got as much court time as they did as Freshmen speaks volumes. And this class coming in is the first real class in which the impact of NCAA tourney success will be felt. Shazier and Boon clearly have the pedigrees to be special, and when this list first came out, O'Brien was thought to be the star of the class!
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BreakinBison
Sophomore
Posts: 146
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-04-07 07:59 PM - Post#34302
In response to Husky - Bison
Here's a nice photo of Shazier (copy the whole link):
http://www.dailypress.com/sports/hr-dpmenchvillevshampkb20070325040016,0,6885822.photo?coll=dp-sports-local
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BreakinBison
Sophomore
Posts: 146
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-04-07 08:01 PM - Post#34303
In response to BreakinBison
Also, I wouldn't say either Griffin or Mastro were "sitting at the end of the bench" in '05-'06.
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BUPilot
Masters Student
Posts: 641
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 02-11-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-04-07 08:26 PM - Post#34304
In response to BreakinBison
That said, picking Holy Cross to repeat isn't an entirely unreasonable pick (though I certainly hope it's wrong). If you look at the Patriot League tournament champions since the 1990-1991 season, you'd almost never go wrong predicting that a school would win at least back to back tournament championships. The clear trend has been for tournament champions to repeat at least once in this league. After Fordham won back to back titles in '91 & '92, back to back tournament championships didn't happen when Holy Cross's '93 championship was followed up by Navy in '94 and then Colgate in '95. But after that 2 year stretch of non-repeating tournament champions, the only other team not to win at least back to back Patriot League tournament titles was Lehigh's failure to repeat it's 2004 championship.
So...seeing that Holy Cross just won the championship, you could do much worse than pick them to repeat next year. But that's why they play the games after all.
| Will Atlas shrug? Who is John Galt? |
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-04-07 08:46 PM - Post#34305
In response to BUPilot
Yes, at the end of the day, I expect the Bison and Holy Cross to still be #'s 1 and 2, albeit in a much more competitive league. The blogger who does these predictions is prolific to an extreme but clearly doesn't understand anything other than the numbers.
For example, the author clearly has no clue about the quality of the recent Bison recruiting classes, and why those players have not yet put up big numbers. Justin Castleberry is one good example of how hard it is to learn Flannery's offensive and defensive systems, and how hard it has been to get playing time with all of the veterans on the roster. Justin never played as a frosh and never played the first month as a soph. Then all of a sudden, he learned the system, earned a spot in the rotation, and then averaged about 15 pts per 40 minutes, while also contributing defensively. More importantly, in the two games at HC, he had 16 pts in 26 minutes and then 10 pts in 19 minutes. That should give some indication as to whether he can play.
As to the current freshmen, I think there is no question Tyree and Behan are two of the league's top six frosh. And as to the incoming recruiting class, it is clearly one of the top recruiting classes ever in the PL. So much for the blogger's evaluation of Bison recruiting.
Placing all of this in context, had they been at Army/Navy/Lafayette, three current Bison freshmen/sophs might well have started for much of this year.
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KenZ
Postdoc
Posts: 2777
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-04-07 11:59 PM - Post#34306
In response to Bison137
so we all agree we have a quality group of recruits. the dynamics will also be different next year with greater opportunity and need for contributions from the frosh. how much and how soon do you all think they will contribute?
i am already on record predicting that Boon will earn a starting spot by the time conference play comes around. i think he will play significant minutes from game 1. O'Brien will take a little longer to adjust, but will get time that increases during the season reaching 10 to 15 minutes per game. Shazier has the most returnees on the depth chart ahead of him and he is small. may need a year to gain strength before he gets significant minutes.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 01:26 AM - Post#34307
In response to KenZ
I'm mostly in agreement on Boon and O'Brien, although I think it may be hard for Boon to earn significant minutes in November due to the complexity of Pat's system. What could be interesting is if he plays well enough to earn consideration as a starter in January. Given Pat's loyalty to his starters (e.g. waiting so long to make Mastro the 6th man this year), how long would it take him to move JV to the 6th man role?
I think the situation is more wide open in the case of Shazier, and a lot will depend on whether his defense is as good as the high school writers/coaches think it is. When the Bison get to league play, they will face two teams with small, lightning fast PG's who are also very good - Marquis Hall (listed at 5'11" but maybe shorter) and Dereck Mercer (5'8") - plus a third who is almost as quick - 5'10" Marcus Nelson of Army. When the Bison are playing man, who is going to guard these super-quick guys? Griffin sometimes drew that assignment this past season when Abe guarded the shooter, but it's not an easy job for Griffin (or for Castleberry). Tyree might do the best job, but he's better suited for shutting down a bigger scoring guard, and at his height it's asking a lot to contain one of these super-fast guards. Thus Shazier might get a chance in certain situations if he's learned the defense well enough by mid-January.
Using Shazier to guard these super-quick, small players would be even more likely if/when American and/or Lehigh opt to go with two smurfs at a time. In addition to Mercer, American also has Garrison Carr, who is a good outside shooter and is no more than 5'10". Similarly, Lehigh has supposedly landed a 5'8" combo guard from NYC (Prentice Small) who could conceivably see some time in tandem with Hall if he plays well. This is at least a possibility since LU lost Olivero and Neptune, their main wing players. If LU or AU go with two short,lightning-fast guards, I think the Bison on occasion may have to either go mostly zone or else have Shazier guard one of them.
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KenZ
Postdoc
Posts: 2777
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 01:31 PM - Post#34308
In response to Bison137
good points re Shazier.
before i go further over the edge on predictions, i will point out that i have a poor track record of predicting which recruits will produce and have not seen any of our current recruits play a single minute.
now having said that, i will expand on my prediction to say both Boon and O'Brien will make the all rookie team with Boon winning ROY. has anyone else noticed that we seem very reticent to speculate and make wild predictions on this board. is there some aspect of a Bucknell education that makes us all conservative (note: only Dan (Husky Bison) regularly makes bold statements and predictions based more on emotion and team loyalty, and he did not do his undergrad work at Bucknell). come on guys, how about a few predictions and inflated hype on our recruits. we can be like other message boards then (hmmm, maybe not so good after all).
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 01:50 PM - Post#34309
In response to KenZ
Quote:
now having said that, i will expand on my prediction to say both Boon and O'Brien will make the all rookie team with Boon winning ROY. has anyone else noticed that we seem very reticent to speculate and make wild predictions on this board. is there some aspect of a Bucknell education that makes us all conservative (note: only Dan (Husky Bison) regularly makes bold statements and predictions based more on emotion and team loyalty, and he did not do his undergrad work at Bucknell). come on guys, how about a few predictions and inflated hype on our recruits. we can be like other message boards then (hmmm, maybe not so good after all).
OK. I predict that both Greg Oden and Kevin Durant will announce this week that they are transferring to Bucknell! 
I could definitely see Boon being ROY. He and Beinert seem like the early pre-season favorites.
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KenZ
Postdoc
Posts: 2777
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 02:11 PM - Post#34310
In response to Bison137
Quote:
OK. I predict that both Greg Oden and Kevin Durant will announce this week that they are transferring to Bucknell!
now we're talkin. do you think they'll stay for all three years or will they go pro after a couple since they'll be graduating then? speaking of graduating, what do you expect them to major in? at least one should go into mathematics so he can come here and talk to eric about fractal geometry and such.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 02:25 PM - Post#34311
In response to KenZ
When it comes to geometry, many of the BCS players would be stumped at the pythagorean theorom.
More appropriate for a lot of them - how is the BU playground recreation department these days? If that doesn't work, maybe we can partner with the Federal Pen and create a criminal justice major.
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ericatbucknell
PhD Student
Posts: 1940
Reg: 01-22-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 02:55 PM - Post#34312
In response to Bison137
...anything to help make math cool.
anyway, any prediction of the contributions of next years freshmen HAS to begin with todd obrien: he is the only one of the three who MUST be a major contributor in 07-08... especially if linthicum doesnt make defensive strides this offseason. my guesstimate: he finishes second to andrew beinert, who will finish the year starting at hc, in the roy voting.
on gw boon, i think he is going to be FANTASTIC (and flannery does, too. otherwise he holds that third scholarship for another post player). and he definitely looks like he could contribute next year. only problem? we are DEEP in the backcourt. really deep. perhaps the deepest backcourt the pl has ever seen. griffin, vegotsky, castleberry and tyree are all going to get major minutes. throw in thomas, boon, evans and shazier? wow. prediction: boon shows us enough to keep up the 'next charles lee' hype, but doesnt get enough minutes to contend for roy honors.
shazier? well, ill just say im excited at the thought of an athletic, quick point guard who can shoot. ive got a feeling his defense is going to keep him off the court in 07-08, but i wouldnt be surprised to see him on an all-pl team down the road. and thats good enough for me.
best pl recruiting class ever? no, cant say that; theres no adonal foyle headed to lewisburg this august. deepest? you bet. three GREAT gets.
The Bracket Bustin' Bison are Back!
Okay. First round streak BACK ON! |
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Husky - Bison
maximus
Posts: 131
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 03:20 PM - Post#34313
In response to ericatbucknell
The other thing regarding Bucknell's recent success and recruiting is that Bucknell, no matter how much exposure they get and how identifiable they are, is still only going to be recruiting from a small pool given its academic standards. This is not the case with Butler, George Mason, American or Lehigh (yes, I wrote it) who are FAR less stringent about the admission standards for student athletes.
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KenZ
Postdoc
Posts: 2777
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 03:41 PM - Post#34314
In response to ericatbucknell
Quote:
on gw boon, i think he is going to be FANTASTIC (and flannery does, too. otherwise he holds that third scholarship for another post player). and he definitely looks like he could contribute next year. only problem? we are DEEP in the backcourt. really deep. perhaps the deepest backcourt the pl has ever seen. griffin, vegotsky, castleberry and tyree are all going to get major minutes. throw in thomas, boon, evans and shazier?
Flannery won't be able to keep Boon off the court. we need him to fill the small forward (or 3-guard if you prefer) spot. of the guards you list, i believe only Tyree can provide the defense and rebounding we will need out of that spot. if he improves his shooting he could keep Boon off the floor, but no one else can.
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Husky - Bison
maximus
Posts: 131
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 07:51 PM - Post#34315
In response to KenZ
Let me say KenZ and am one emotional guy!
This board is one of the most intelligent boards out there a however...well behaved and accepting of opinion. I appreciate the inclusion as a Central PA kid who grew up watching Bucknell and attending Bloomsburg. (My sister matriculated a Bison if that counts for anything). Now if Bucknell and Bloomsburg could develop a nice first game of the year thing in football along with two top 25 wrestling programs, that would be great! Talk about emotion!
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KenZ
Postdoc
Posts: 2777
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-05-07 11:13 PM - Post#34316
In response to Husky - Bison
H-B, never intended to imply you were an outsider. it's the offseason and i would welcome some more subjective posts to liven up the discusssion. if we limit ourselves to news on the schedule and recruits, the board will see a lot of boring days in between tidbits on these topics.
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Husky - Bison
maximus
Posts: 131
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: 2007 - 2008 Prediction
04-06-07 11:49 AM - Post#34317
In response to KenZ
No offense taken. I am just glad this board exists and Bucknell basketball has grown to the point we have enough folks participating to support this forum. In reality, Bucknell basketball needs for people like me to grow further, non-alumni who like the program, like the uniforms, etc. IE Gonzaga sells merchandise all over the country now....We could launch a discussion about the bookstore and how to break their hold over merchandise sales.
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