UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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10-16-17 10:37 PM - Post#234069
Here’s two perspectives about Penn’s chances on contending this year. To the good we optimists can point to multiple chances for improvement – basically because the talent is getting better.
We have four seniors, Wood, Foreman, Matt McDonald and Jones all of who can contribute. Foreman, while not an Ivy all star is a useful player – decent D and a 99 OR. That was the best OR for a 1 or 2 guard since Miles C in 2014. Both Wood and Jones are one-dimensional players, but they both can shoot. On a deeper team they could be quite valuable coming off the bench. As to Matt Mc all he did last year was have an OR of 104. Maybe a bit more aggressiveness with the ball could produce another Belcore-like senior year.
We can hope that one of the Juniors Max, Antonio, Tyler H and Jake Silpe can morph into something useful. Woods has the best chance off his highlight games as a freshman, but any of them could find a solid role as a backup. Could Jake realize his potential as a heralded recruit? Could Tyler add enough offense to make his strength and defense useful? Can Max add that one skill that moves him from passable to really useful? This class has clearly been a disappointment. We can hope to get some real return after two years of learning.
Of course, the real surprise of last year was the emergence of two freshmen as stars and glimpses of the potential in another. Just a few touches of polish will cement Brodeur as an Ivy stud. Maybe that is not a big improvement over last year, but it would provide a powerful anchor for three more years. Should Betley continue his last eight-game pace this year, we have the second anchor – almost to the level of talent needed to contend. Of equal value would be Devon taking over at lead guard, the weakest position during the tribe’s wandering in the wilderness.
These three what if’s, should they all come home are enough, given the other talent to make Penn a contender. A stud up front, an assassin on the wing and a good point guard would be enough of a foundation to move significantly upward. Sure, Harvard could make the jump to light speed. Can’t do a thing about that.
The optimism continues when considering an incoming class with at least equal potential to last year’s. Simmons won’t start like Brodeur did. But AJ filled a vacuum. If Simmons can play, Penn would have a fully talented front court for the first time since Dougherty and DNH. (A cautionary tale that 8-20 team). We are hoping Scott fills in for the Howard loss and there is lot’s of room for Williams to contribute in the back court. It is a sign of the talent improvement that a 7’2†center, good enough to be all state in Utah has gotten no notice on this board. Could he contribute 10-15 minutes as a defensive presence? I hope so. Steve has a history of developing such a player. We can sum the potential this way. If this class contributes like last year’s frosh did, the tribe will have reached the promised land.
Oh yes, the second perspective. Last year’s team lost about the same as this year’s team, DNH verses Matt. But, last year two players, Matt and Foreman improved significantly and those three-frosh showed up, contributing more than was expected. We forgot about DNH after only one or two game watching AJ. Plus, the team dynamics improved, especially for turnovers. Yet the team won only two more games.
That suggests a similarly favorable improvement this year, two incumbents improving and two frosh contributing big time, would get us the same two more wins, all the way to 15-13. Oh wow!!!!!
Sure, I am hopeful for bigger improvements. But this perspective reminds us of the stakes at play. Penn needs either a major infusion of talent or a major improvement in team efficiency – or both. I looked up the last championship team. The top four players averaged an OR of 111 against the 102 last year. Can AJ and Betley and  and get to 111 this year?
Oh, yeah, the league is much tougher than in 2008. Maybe Ibby and Mark, and Brian and Steve would have finished second against today’s competition.
Still, this is a team with so much more potential than any of the last terrible ten years.
Maybe Jackson will swat away that last comeback attempt by Princeton in March and we can jump up and down with glee. October is the season of hope!
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3588
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-17-17 10:29 AM - Post#234079
In response to UPIA1968
Great post, thanks for taking the time UPIA.
I believe Betley will end up as our best player this year and has a good chance to be All Ivy. Frankly, the fact that we have 2 players who will vie for the top spot on the team is exciting. AJ will be better this year but I expect Betley to make a quantum leap that jumps Brodeur as our best player.
I agree we need 2 others to make the quantum leap with Betley. AW could be an answer. Max in an expanded role and/or Jarrod/Eddie/Jelani are all options.
Great that we have viable options. I am excited to see how this team evolves.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3779
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-17-17 10:43 AM - Post#234081
In response to PennFan10
I don't see Max Rothschild making a huge leap from where he is-- he's probably playing about as well as he's going to (I'd love to be wrong about this, BTW). However, I strongly disagree with the characterization of him as a player who needs to 'morph into something useful.' He's already a very useful player. He's not a star, and never will be, but he's an extremely solid reserve who gives his all. We're lucky to have him-- teams don't win titles without players like Max.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4361
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-17 11:00 AM - Post#234082
In response to Silver Maple
I don't know. I thought Max improved a lot toward the end of last year and this became especially evident when AJ began to show signs of wearing down.
I'm not sure what we have this year and I doubt we learn much from the scrimmage. My hope is that Steve figures out a rotation early and gets guys that need game experience on the court from the get go. I know practice is important and coaches want to keep them competitive and to reward those that practice well. Still - ever changing rotations based on the latest practices can be self defeating for a team looking to integrate young players into the mix and to take a significant step forward.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4484
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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10-17-17 11:15 AM - Post#234083
In response to AsiaSunset
So... Predicting this team's final record, what is the expectation/hope for Ivy League play... 7-7? 8-6? I know we can hope to go 14-0, but can we expect better than 2-4 vs. HYP and 6-2 vs. the rest?
I'm sure someone soon will be running the simulations...
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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10-17-17 11:28 AM - Post#234084
In response to Cvonvorys
8-6 sounds right. 10-6 after the Ivy Tournament.
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Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts: 309
Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
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10-17-17 11:36 AM - Post#234085
In response to PennFan10
I like Betley, but cautionary tale that at this time last year (after a very impressive 2nd half of the season) there were more than a few people insisting that Donahue was headed to all-ivy status. Not every trajectory is linear, particularly for a freshman who surprised and delighted over a relatively smaller sample of games.
All-in-all, call me an optimist. The team improved to a Ken Pom 170ish team this past year. I'll vote for improvement into the 130-140 range which (with 3 league teams that look like top 100 candidates) to me looks like a 7-7 4th place league finish. Then it's two games in the Palestra for a chance to dance.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3588
Reg: 02-15-15
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Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 11:49 AM - Post#234086
In response to Silver Maple
I don't see Max Rothschild making a huge leap from where he is-- he's probably playing about as well as he's going to (I'd love to be wrong about this, BTW). However, I strongly disagree with the characterization of him as a player who needs to 'morph into something useful.' He's already a very useful player. He's not a star, and never will be, but he's an extremely solid reserve who gives his all. We're lucky to have him-- teams don't win titles without players like Max.
I don't know if you are wrong or not. I actually don't think SD used Max last year the way he used him his freshman year when he put up double digit points against some good players/teams. AJ changed Max's trajectory significantly and he gained a lot of weight to play the 5 as a banger. I have heard he has dropped the weight and is moving better than ever. I am hoping we see a 25 min a night version of his freshman year flashes more than we see the 12 min a night role player behind AJ version.
Going to 2 bigs regularly gives him the chance to make that leap. There just isn't any way to compare last year (12 minute role player) to his freshman year (flashes of a double double player). We'll see. I think most of us think Jarrod is most likely to develop into the 'Sherrod' to AJ's 'Sears' but that may be more rooted in the "new car syndrome" than in reality.
I just hope we get a double double out of that position,whomever it is.
Edited by PennFan10 on 10-17-17 11:50 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32840
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 11:59 AM - Post#234087
In response to PennFan10
Being the eternal optimist (except when certain defeat hits me in the face), I see Woods making a major impact and leading us to surprise victories against Harvard and Yale and Princeton suffering more severe effects from its graduation losses than the others. 9-5, 3rd place and rapidly improving through the Ivy season.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8260
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 11:59 AM - Post#234088
In response to UPIA1968
Good stuff as always, UPIA, but I think you and many others should expect more from Tyler H. I actually would expect to see him get a lot of Howard's minutes, at least in the beginning unless Eddie Scott is a major force already. Tyler reminds me of Matt in some ways, and Matt was a bit of a late bloomer as well. If Tyler can improve his offensive game, he will get his share of PT. The other story line to follow closely is to what extent AJ gets to play a true 4 and get out of the low post where everyone can sag on him. That could mean we see more of Max out there with him, maybe Simmons is part of that, or maybe we even clear out the lane and give Woods and Goodman more room to get to the hoop.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3588
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-17-17 12:09 PM - Post#234089
In response to Streamers
Tyler H has been injured and not yet a factor in the rotation from what I understand. He is hoping to get back into action but I don't know the timetable.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
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10-17-17 12:47 PM - Post#234090
In response to PennFan10
Free Tyler H!
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 01:22 PM - Post#234092
In response to Okoro Dude
Just ran some (abbreviated) sims - only 500, would have taken too long to do more. Shouldn't affect the results...
Penn Ivy wins...
2 - <1%
3 - 1%
4 - 2%
5 - 9%
6 - 18%
7 - 25%
8 - 25%
9 - 12%
10 - 6%
11 - 2%
12 - <1%
Penn Ivy Tourney Odds
Top Seed - 2%
Second Seed - 8%
Third Seed - 16%
Fourth Seed - 37%
Penn Makes Ivy Tourney Final - 28%
Penn Wins Ivy Tourney - 12%
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 01:26 PM - Post#234093
In response to mrjames
penn to make the ivy tourney from MRJames/538 - 63%
my UNSKEWED numbers show a 99.9999% chance of making the tourney.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8260
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-17 02:05 PM - Post#234095
In response to PennFan10
are we talking about a recent injury that has hampered his practice time?
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8260
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 02:06 PM - Post#234096
In response to mrjames
Just ran some (abbreviated) sims - only 500, would have taken too long to do more. Shouldn't affect the results...
Penn Ivy wins...
2 - <1%
3 - 1%
4 - 2%
5 - 9%
6 - 18%
7 - 25%
8 - 25%
9 - 12%
10 - 6%
11 - 2%
12 - <1%
Penn Ivy Tourney Odds
Top Seed - 2%
Second Seed - 8%
Third Seed - 16%
Fourth Seed - 37%
Penn Makes Ivy Tourney Final - 28%
Penn Wins Ivy Tourney - 12%
Feels about right to me, based on what we know now, for what little that is worth
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 03:06 PM - Post#234097
In response to Streamers
why the fudge do we want Mike's numbers if this is a hope springs eternal thread? for crying out loud.
no offense Mike. you and your numbers are both great in most threads. but i'm looking for eternal hope right now. there's no need to be grounded in statistical objectivity, it hampers the process tbh.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3588
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-17-17 03:13 PM - Post#234098
In response to Streamers
are we talking about a recent injury that has hampered his practice time?
I believe so yes.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4484
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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Re: Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 03:18 PM - Post#234099
In response to TheLine
why the fudge do we want Mike's numbers if this is a hope springs eternal thread? for crying out loud.
no offense Mike. you and your numbers are both great in most threads. but i'm looking for eternal hope right now. there's no need to be grounded in statistical objectivity, it hampers the process tbh.
Mike's numbers are good for when we come back to this thread in March and say, "Damn, we won the Ivy League regular season and tourney... What were the odds of that before the season started??"
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1173
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: Hope spring eternal
10-17-17 03:26 PM - Post#234100
In response to TheLine
why the fudge do we want Mike's numbers if this is a hope springs eternal thread? for crying out loud.
no offense Mike. you and your numbers are both great in most threads. but i'm looking for eternal hope right now. there's no need to be grounded in statistical objectivity, it hampers the process tbh.
I agree. Maybe Markelle Fultz comes to his senses and concludes that playing in a packed Palestra is so much more emotionally (if not financially) rewarding than in a soulless Wells Fargo Center.
And that the Penn admissions department and NCAA have no problem with this.
That's my hope.
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