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American Army Bucknell Colgate Holy Cross Lafayette Lehigh Navy



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Username Post: VOTE: Predictions for Patriot League Results        (Topic#20883)
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 13140
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
12-26-17 11:32 AM - Post#241313    

For background, here are Pomeroy projections for the league:

1 bucknell . 14.0 wins
2 army . . 11.7 wins
3 navy . . 10.5
4 colgate . 10.3
5 lehigh . 10.0
6 boston . 7.9
7 lafayette 6.6
8 loyola . 6.5
9 holy cross 6.3
10 american 6.2 wins


And the official pre-season PL poll:

Bucknell, 162 (18 first-place votes)
Boston University, 141 (2)
Navy, 120
Lehigh, 108
Colgate, 104
Loyola Maryland 78
Army West Point, 66
Holy Cross, 48
American, 39
Lafayette, 27

- - - - -

A) How many games do you think the Bison will win in league play (out of 18)?

B) Who do you expect to be the closest competitor?
(NOTE: I intended to allow predictions for the top two, but messed up the poll set-up. Only allows one pick.)

Results are displayed immediately after you vote.


How many PL games will the Bison win (out of 18)?
18 Wins
17 Wins
16 Wins
15 Wins
14 Wins
13 Wins
12 Wins
11 Wins
10 Wins
8 or 9 Wins
Less than 8
You may choose one option.
Votes accepted from 12-26-17 11:26 AM to 12-29-18 08:30 PM.
You must vote in order to see the results of this poll
You are not allowed to vote in this poll.


Which two teams will be the top two other than the Bison?
American
Army
Boston U
Colgate
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Lehigh
Loyola
Navy
You may choose one option.
Votes accepted from 12-26-17 11:27 AM to 12-29-18 08:30 PM.
You must vote in order to see the results of this poll
You are not allowed to vote in this poll.




 
kevin96 
Freshman
Posts: 41

Reg: 01-04-07
VOTE: Predictions for Patriot League Results
12-26-17 11:50 AM - Post#241314    
    In response to Bison137

Two things about the above poll:

1. As was mentioned in the parentheses, only one choice is allowed for the top competitor.

2. For your vote to be counted, you have to submit a vote separately for each poll.

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 13140
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
VOTE: Predictions for Patriot League Results
12-26-17 12:02 PM - Post#241315    
    In response to kevin96

Yes, that is correct. Unfortunately these polls are not that easy to manage and they don't allow you to edit them once they are posted.




 
MrPhillie 
PhD Student
Posts: 1942
MrPhillie
Loc: NE PA
Reg: 07-14-08
12-26-17 04:08 PM - Post#241323    
    In response to Bison137

I went for 15 wins and Navy second best team. With no injuries and if team was playing how many of us expected them to play based on last year’s performance and who was coming back, I would have chosen 17-18 wins. My guess of 15 wins is predicated on the idea that Kimbal and Avi both come back and play reasonably well.

 
bison63 
Postdoc
Posts: 3179

Reg: 01-23-06
12-26-17 06:24 PM - Post#241329    
    In response to MrPhillie

Think they will miss half PL season.

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 13140
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
VOTE: Predictions for Patriot League Results
12-26-17 07:40 PM - Post#241333    
    In response to bison63

  • bison63 Said:
Think they will miss half PL season.




I am more optimistic about Kimbal than about Avi, even though ND said they were both 3-4 weeks away as of 12/22. If we assume Mackenzie's recovery is the norm of 6-8 weeks, that would theoretically have him back about January 18th, i.e. 7 weeks from December 1st surgery. That is about 4 weeks after ND's estimate. If he recovered in 6 weeks - which would be three weeks after ND's statement - then he could be back on January 11th.

As for Avi, after looking at the brace immobilizing Avi's knee on Friday, I didn't get a good feeling about it being only a 3-4 week injury. Hope I'm too pessimistic.




 
jkrun80 
Postdoc
Posts: 2324

Age: 59
Reg: 05-07-12
12-26-17 09:00 PM - Post#241341    
    In response to Bison137

The only PL game that scares me is the Wed game in Annapolis (Jan. 24). But we're good enough to handle Navy on the road. Fortunately, it's early in the semester. The February schedule is quite favorable. Only one weekday away game - a Monday at Lehigh. There are three pairs of short turnaround games. Jan 15/17 @Colgate, @Loyola; Feb 3/5 Lafayette, @Lehigh; Feb 12/14 Colgate, Loyola. The first will be the toughest. There's a week off between the latter two.

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 13140
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
12-26-17 09:04 PM - Post#241342    
    In response to jkrun80

Yes, playing Colgate and Loyola on the road with one day of rest in between will be a major challenge. Colgate is a very experienced team and is good enough to beat the Bison on the right night. Loyola seemingly is week this year, but they have been killed by injuries and may be mostly healthy by January 17th. Their injury list this season:

- Lost All-PL PG Andre Walker for 3 games.
- Lost starter Andrew Kostecka for a number of games.
- Lost starter Chuck Champion for the first 5 games. Champion is averaging over 17 ppg since his return.
- Lost Jame Fives, who had started in Champion's place.
- Lost freshman Brent Holcomb, who had been averaging 18 mpg.
- Didn't have freshman River Reed for the first 7 games. He is averaging over 20 mpg since his return.
- Lost starter Chancellor Barnard for the year due to a torn pectoral muscle.

Barnard isn't coming back this year - but if everyone else on the above list gets healthy, I think Loyola is a middle-of-the-pack team who could surprise some of the better teams.




 
jkrun80 
Postdoc
Posts: 2324

Age: 59
Reg: 05-07-12
12-26-17 09:21 PM - Post#241343    
    In response to Bison137

Loyola beat Drexel and played Memphis close for 35 minutes in their last two games. They won't be the pushover their record might indicate. And we get them twice on one day rest. Hopefully, we can go deep in to the bench most games so our starters are playing 35 minutes a game.

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 13140
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
12-26-17 09:29 PM - Post#241344    
    In response to jkrun80

  • jkrun80 Said:
Loyola beat Drexel and played Memphis close for 35 minutes in their last two games. They won't be the pushover their record might indicate.




Their better play corresponds to getting back Walker, Kostecka, and Champion - who are three of their four best players. The fourth is Cam Gregory, who leads the league in rebounds and is top ten in scoring. Also throw in a good freshman guard in Isiah Hart and they are definitely no pushover.

I predicted 15 wins, thinking they are vulnerable in most of the road games. Long bus trips to Boston U and HC make those games tough. Back-to-back road games with virtually no rest with Colgate and Loyola. Always a tough game with Lehigh, who is very dangerous if they are shooting well. And close games are likely at Army and Navy. I would be much more confident with Kimbal and Avi back.




 
jkrun80 
Postdoc
Posts: 2324

Age: 59
Reg: 05-07-12
12-26-17 09:57 PM - Post#241347    
    In response to Bison137

  • Bison137 Said:
Long bus trips to Boston U and HC make those games tough. Back-to-back road games with virtually no rest with Colgate and Loyola.



The Boston and HC games are at noon, so they will certainly travel the day before, which should help. The long bus ride to Hamilton on a Monday followed by the trip to Baltimore on Wednesday has me more concerned. Luckily classes start that Tuesday, so they should have the academic stress to deal with.

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 13140
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
12-26-17 10:57 PM - Post#241348    
    In response to jkrun80

  • jkrun80 Said:
  • Bison137 Said:
Long bus trips to Boston U and HC make those games tough. Back-to-back road games with virtually no rest with Colgate and Loyola.



The Boston and HC games are at noon, so they will certainly travel the day before, which should help. The long bus ride to Hamilton on a Monday followed by the trip to Baltimore on Wednesday has me more concerned. Luckily classes start that Tuesday, so they should have the academic stress to deal with.




Normally they travel to Colgate the day before the game. I thought that was true of Loyola as well, although I am not positive about that one.




 
Paulie777 
PhD Student
Posts: 1497
Paulie777
Reg: 11-11-07
VOTE: Predictions for Patriot League Results
12-26-17 11:22 PM - Post#241349    
    In response to Bison137

Current algorithmic probabilities:

Winning Patriot League 94%
Winning Patriot league tournament 81%
Winning first round NCAA tournament (if in field of 64) 24%
Winning second round NCAA tournament 8%
Advancing to Elite 8 <1%

Formula used Paulie777

Edited by Paulie777 on 12-26-17 11:26 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Bison89 
Postdoc
Posts: 4467
Bison89
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
12-27-17 12:28 PM - Post#241371    
    In response to MrPhillie

  • MrPhillie Said:
I went for 15 wins and Navy second best team. With no injuries and if team was playing how many of us expected them to play based on last year’s performance and who was coming back, I would have chosen 17-18 wins. My guess of 15 wins is predicated on the idea that Kimbal and Avi both come back and play reasonably well.



Phillie, I agree with you on 15 wins. As for Navy, they might be the second best PL team, but they have a terrible strength of schedule (300+), and other than their opening game against a weak Pitt team, they have not beaten anybody with a winning record all season:

TEAM RECORD RPI SCORE W/L
Pittsburgh 8-5 (0-0) 156 71-62 W
at Miami (FL) 11-1 (0-0) 30 55-89 L
at Pennsylvania 7-4 (0-0) 116 45-66 L
at Bryant 1-12 (0-0) 301 79-71 W
St. Francis(NY) 1-9 (0-0) 336 85-76 W
at FL Gulf Coast 6-7 (0-0) 210 54-70 L
Denver 4-8 (0-0) 315 79-71 W
Delaware 4-6 (0-0) 268 82-76 W
Morgan St. 2-7 (0-0) 187 66-59 W
at Coppin St. 0-13 (0-0) 308 70-53 W
at Columbia 1-10 (0-0) 292 73-68 W
Lipscomb 7-4 (0-0) 24 64-73 L
'RAY FOR THE ORANGE AND THE BLUE!


 
jkrun80 
Postdoc
Posts: 2324

Age: 59
Reg: 05-07-12
12-27-17 01:54 PM - Post#241376    
    In response to Bison89

Army played an even weaker schedule than Navy. Don't be fooled by their winning record. The PL looks very weak this year. There might be one fluke loss, like the Loyola game last year. But there's no excuse for us to lose to anyone in the league.

 
BisonRoadWarrior 
Postdoc
Posts: 4392
BisonRoadWarrior
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
12-27-17 01:57 PM - Post#241378    
    In response to jkrun80

  • jkrun80 Said:
Army played an even weaker schedule than Navy. Don't be fooled by their winning record. The PL looks very weak this year. There might be one fluke loss, like the Loyola game last year. But there's no excuse for us to lose to anyone in the league.

If KenPom crunches it all (factoring in their schedule) and says Army will finish second and has a 22 percent chance of winning the league, I'm going to be vary wary of them.

 
bisonmania 
Masters Student
Posts: 758

Reg: 10-26-07
12-27-17 03:57 PM - Post#241383    
    In response to BisonRoadWarrior

My inside source has told me Kimbal should be back by second week of January.

 
Bison89 
Postdoc
Posts: 4467
Bison89
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
12-27-17 05:45 PM - Post#241385    
    In response to bisonmania

  • bisonmania Said:
My inside source has told me Kimbal should be back by second week of January.



If Kimbal is healthy when he returns, it should make a big difference through the balance of PL play and the rest of the season.

Bisonmania, thanks for the good news!
'RAY FOR THE ORANGE AND THE BLUE!


 
Old Bison 
Junior
Posts: 210

Age: 59
Reg: 07-09-17
12-28-17 01:19 PM - Post#241455    
    In response to Bison89

Bisonmania...thanks for sharing...maybe Avi shortly thereafter.

 
MrPhillie 
PhD Student
Posts: 1942
MrPhillie
Loc: NE PA
Reg: 07-14-08
12-28-17 01:25 PM - Post#241459    
    In response to bisonmania

Thanks bisonmania. I would guess Kimbal will be taking it slow to begin and will take some time to get back to top form, but just having him out there and healthy this time will be a boost in team performance and confidence.

 
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