palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32848
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-30-20 12:04 PM - Post#297816
I figure that to ensure a playoff spot, Penn has to win 8 of its remaining 12 Ivy games. With 4 against Harvard and Yale, that will not be easy. Assuming that Penn wins all 4 of its home games against Columbia, Brown, Dartmouth and Cornell (only the last of which is truly a sure W), that requires a combination of 4 wins against Harvard and Yale at home and the other 4 on the road.
Is that doable?
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8266
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-30-20 12:26 PM - Post#297820
In response to palestra38
First of all, I think they sweep Cornell. Despite our dismal record at Levien, sweeping Columbia is also better than 50/50. We will certainly be favored in all 4 games unless AJ gets hurt. In that case, all you need is a split with H&Y. Very doable if they can shoot 35% from 3 and avoid meltdowns like what we saw against Temple.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2816
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-30-20 12:28 PM - Post#297821
In response to palestra38
You can get the first six by wiring the Palestra scoreboard.😜
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
01-30-20 12:37 PM - Post#297822
In response to palestra38
I haven't run the sims, but I'd think more likely than not 7 wins will get it done. Won't go through all the permutations there, but I think 7 will be enough.
First, Penn is close to 45% to be .500 after the weekend and should be favored in both games (Harvard could be a PK, but -1 to -2 makes more sense). In general, Penn is 80% or so to grab at least one from Harvard and Yale. 6-2 against the other four seems reasonable.
It feels like, to me, there are two paths to the tourney:
1) Sweep Brown. Any reasonable performance outside of that probably puts you in.
2) Put up 7+ wins (as long as Princeton finishes no better than 3rd - possibly 8 if they win the whole thing).
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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01-31-20 10:03 AM - Post#297884
In response to mrjames
I think you get to eight wins by scoring more points than the other team 8x. 
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2696
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-31-20 10:18 AM - Post#297886
In response to Quaker75
If either Brown or Penn sweep their home/home, that should be determinative.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2140
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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01-31-20 08:31 PM - Post#298103
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Tonight's win was a good start. Would have been a lot less stressful if we hadn't gone ice cold for most of the second half.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-01-20 01:28 AM - Post#298154
In response to weinhauers_ghost
If the tournament started today, we’d be the 4th team in, remarkably.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3619
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-20 01:39 AM - Post#298155
In response to SomeGuy
The key is NO LET DOWN tomorrow. Dartmouth did not play well against Princeton, but this is the kind of game/team that this Penn team has not played well against. Just can’t have a letdown tomorrow and have to protect home court. Let’s hope we can rediscover ability to hit 3’s at a good clip as a team again.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-02-20 10:11 PM - Post#298433
In response to Mike Porter
Anyone else thinking like me? That Princeton is the best team in the league. Makes me want to puke.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2140
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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02-02-20 11:25 PM - Post#298437
In response to OldBig5
Anyone else thinking like me? That Princeton is the best team in the league. Makes me want to puke.
Let's see how they look against Yale before we reach that conclusion.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3589
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-03-20 12:35 AM - Post#298441
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Yale is decidedly the best team in the league and I don’t think Princeton is a close 2nd.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-03-20 12:37 AM - Post#298442
In response to OldBig5
Yale has been the best team in the league thus far, and it isn’t very close. Princeton underperformed their talent early on but seems to have come together. But Yale has played at a higher level more or less all year.
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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02-03-20 12:30 PM - Post#298465
In response to SomeGuy
Lots of things can happen, the games are often about matchups. Go Quakers
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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02-03-20 12:31 PM - Post#298466
In response to Quaker75
Lots of things can happen, the games are often about matchups. Go Quakers
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2696
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-03-20 01:02 PM - Post#298470
In response to Quaker75
Not unlikely that Princeton hosts Yale on Valentine's day with both teams being 6-0. That's one matchup threatening to ruin a lot of Valentine's Day plans.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2816
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-03-20 01:07 PM - Post#298471
In response to Quaker75
To OldBig5: Princeton will likely settle to earth soon. Hard to disagree that Yale looks like the class of the League.
Oh, and if you want to puke, try sticking your finger down your throat.ðŸ…
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32848
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-03-20 01:38 PM - Post#298475
In response to Tiger69
...or drink the tap water down by where you're living.
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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02-03-20 01:41 PM - Post#298476
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
How one team plays another can be much different. Cornell gave Yale a fight. The IVY back to back schedule weighs as well. The Quakers have their work cut out for themselves against Cornell and Columbia. Lots of good players giving great effort at all of these schools.
Makes it fun.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4914
Reg: 02-04-06
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02-03-20 07:21 PM - Post#298497
In response to Quaker75
Rational Tiger fans are not feeling cocky, but are now endowed with hope. The team has jelled quite a bit on both ends, has a rotation giving fairly predictable inputs, and still has things that could plausibly improve without trading off other stuff. But nobody is taking any games for granted, much less future contests with Yale.
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