Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-19-22 01:04 PM - Post#348259
OOC Tier Results for top 6 teams in the Ivy’s
…………....KP Rank…...T1…..T2……....T3…….…T4
Ivy………………….….….0-8…..0-3…...11-11…..25-4
Yale………....79……....0-2…..0-1……..2-0……...5-0
Princeton…114……..0-0……0-1……..2-3………5-0
Penn………..151……..0-4…..0-0……...3-1……...3-2
Cornell…….176……...0-1…...0-1………1-1..……4-0
Harvard…..197………0-0….…0-0………1-3……..4-1
Brown……..227……..0-1…….0-0………2-3……..4-1
The league has yet to win a Tier 1 or 2 game. They are 500 in Tier 3 games.
Yale has the best results to date. Penn would be second to Yale in Tier 3 results, but last in Tier 4 results.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32847
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 01:58 PM - Post#348260
In response to Condor
Where do these tier rankings come from? Because for Penn, I assume the Tier 1 losses are to Villanova(55), Missouri(59), West Virginia(17) and Iona(63).
I suspect the 3-1 Tier 3 record is the loss to Towson(126) and wins over Temple(113), Delaware(174) and Colgate(112).
Which means the Tier 4 record includes the wins over Lafayette(299), Drexel(193) and Hartford(362) and OT losses to LaSalle(223) and St Joe's(228).
There are 363 teams. So unless you are doing something other than placing 91 teams per tier, what you place as a Tier 3 record for Penn all fall in Tier 2. Penn has a 1-2 record against Tier 3 (Drexel, St Joe's and LaSalle) and are undefeated in Tier 4 against Lafayette and Hartford.
Please explain.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 02:15 PM - Post#348262
In response to palestra38
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 02:18 PM - Post#348263
In response to Condor
Actually, I used Kenpom while the committee would use NET.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32847
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 02:22 PM - Post#348264
In response to Condor
OK, in my view that breakdown is wholly subjective. The falloff between the teams at about 200 and those 50 spots below is far greater than home-away. (BTW, I know you used KenPom, which is why I did so also)
This categorization puts far far too much emphasis on home-away. Really minimizes Penn's far tougher schedule than anyone else. But it's all for discussion purposes, I guess. If you show me that the chart would look anything like this if you simply broke the 363 teams into 4 equal (minus 1 for the last quadrant) parts, fine.
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palestra38
Professor
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 02:38 PM - Post#348267
In response to palestra38
Let's just compare with Yale.
Yale lost to Kentucky (8), Colorado (53) and Butler (77), which you have as 2 Tier 1s and a Tier 2.
Yale's Tier 3s are Hawaii (137), and Vermont (143) and Tier 4s are thus Eastern Washington(209), Mississippi Valley State (360), Howard (270), Stony Brook(338) and Fairfield (251)
The average of Yale's Tier 4s are 285.5 and Penn's are 220.8. Might explain the record, eh?
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 03:56 PM - Post#348280
In response to palestra38
Stats people have said that the NETs quadrants actually don't adjust for home/road enough, empirically speaking. Losing to Saint Joseph's at home is nearly equivalent to losing to Maine on the road according to KenPom, for example.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32847
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:03 PM - Post#348282
In response to iogyhufi
Probably a bad example given that those teams have a history of close games amid city rivalries. I hear you, but all I know is that the difference here is far greater than the usual weight of 3-4 points for HCA. The players on LaSalle and St. Joe's are considerably more athletic than players on America East/NEC/Patriot type teams.
But all of this discussion really is verbal diarrhea. We'll see in a couple of weeks how these teams stack up against each other.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21217
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:11 PM - Post#348283
In response to iogyhufi
Stats people have said that the NETs quadrants actually don't adjust for home/road enough, empirically speaking. Losing to Saint Joseph's at home is nearly equivalent to losing to Maine on the road according to KenPom, for example.
Especially since it's far from a total "home" environment playing any of the Big 5 schools.
How about Harvard losing at home to Howard? That's worse than the worst Penn loss this year by a bundle.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:12 PM - Post#348284
In response to palestra38
I think you are justified in criticizing the Tier performance measures. Regardless, the committee likes to use them, so I thought it might be interesting to see how the league had performed.
Regardless, Penn’s losses to LaSalle and Saint Joe’s make Penn look more inconsistent than Yale and even Princeton performances. I also thought Princeton’s 114 ranking was in contrast with its tier performance which had no Tier 1’s, only 1 Tier 2 loss, and 2-3 against Tier 3 competition.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:20 PM - Post#348285
In response to palestra38
Fair points all. I'm more excited about the league regular season than I've been since the 14GT was abolished. Five reasonably strong teams at the top fighting for four spots should make for good watching.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:22 PM - Post#348286
In response to Condor
The key for me is that Penn has been competitive in every game it has played since West Virginia. Clearly, both Dingle and Slajchert were not anywhere near 100% when the season started and then after Slajchert was in shape, he suffered a knee contusion. Playing 2 men or more short, Penn has played much better of late. Would I have liked them to beat Joe's and LaSalle? Sure. But they look like they'll be very tough in the League.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32847
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:23 PM - Post#348287
In response to iogyhufi
I'm assuming you're not including Brown in this. I would. Six teams for 4 spots.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:24 PM - Post#348288
In response to Condor
I think you are justified in criticizing the Tier performance measures. Regardless, the committee likes to use them, so I thought it might be interesting to see how the league had performed.
Regardless, Penn’s losses to LaSalle and Saint Joe’s make Penn look more inconsistent than Yale and even Princeton performances. I also thought Princeton’s 114 ranking was in contrast with its tier performance which had no Tier 1’s, only 1 Tier 2 loss, and 2-3 against Tier 3 competition.
Princeton gets a lot of points for its massive MOV against UMBC, Drexel, and Monmouth. That's my biggest knock on KenPom, I think: the difference between beating a team by 25 and by 35 is really not that big, especially relative to the difference between beating a team by 1 vs. by 11. But afaik KenPom treats those two things as equivalent in terms of how they affect the rankings.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:31 PM - Post#348291
In response to palestra38
I'm still not convinced by Brown, but Keno Lilly is really, really good. They're not on my list, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who thinks they're right there.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21217
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 04:33 PM - Post#348292
In response to iogyhufi
Brown surprised me by finishing as low as it did last year. Lilly impressed plenty already last season.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8266
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-19-22 10:05 PM - Post#348306
In response to penn nation
How about Harvard losing at home to Howard? That's worse than the worst Penn loss this year by a bundle.
Tell that to Jelani Williams.
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whitakk
Masters Student
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Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-21-22 09:20 PM - Post#348369
In response to iogyhufi
Princeton gets a lot of points for its massive MOV against UMBC, Drexel, and Monmouth. That's my biggest knock on KenPom, I think: the difference between beating a team by 25 and by 35 is really not that big, especially relative to the difference between beating a team by 1 vs. by 11. But afaik KenPom treats those two things as equivalent in terms of how they affect the rankings.
I think this is mostly but not completely right -- KP now doesn't give you so much credit for bigger blowouts in a game that was already expected to be a blowout (Monmouth), but still does give you extra credit for bigger blowouts in a game that was expected to be close (Drexel)
https://kenpom.com/blog/pomeroy-ratings- version-2....
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: OOC Tier Results to date for top 6 Ivy's
12-22-22 05:03 PM - Post#348417
In response to whitakk
Meanwhile the Big Red just walloped Colgate in Hamilton, adding another quality win to the league's total.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3619
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-22-22 09:42 PM - Post#348439
In response to iogyhufi
Cornell surging and I didn’t even notice they’d jumped up to 137 in KP. Nice win against Colgate and showing it will be a tough Ivy slate. Harvard showing tonight that their defense translates at all levels. Even Brown at 6th I think will be very difficult. Should be quite the battle this season. For Penn we will quickly see where they are as we open away at Brown and Cornell, a tough start.
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