HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2698
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-04-24 07:30 PM - Post#361254
In response to iogyhufi
Harvard without Mack & Ajogbor is a 7th or 8th place team. Without Wojcik as well it's only worse.
Fully healthy - which is really marginally healthy - they'll challenge for 4th.
If the season is a combination of those options, the Crimson may fall out of it early and Mack could disappear as Bryce Aiken did.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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01-20-24 09:26 PM - Post#361926
In response to iogyhufi
Looking more clear now that it's Brown, Penn, Harvard, Columbia for one spot in the Ivy tournament - all are winless against the top three and unbeaten (Penn's win) against Dartmouth.
Record within that group so far:
BRWN 1-0
COL 0-0
HAR 1-1
PENN 0-1
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2698
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-21-24 01:55 PM - Post#361955
In response to whitakk
There is a post about how 7-7 might be needed to earn the 4th men’s spot. I think this year is an exception. Any loss by Princeton Yale or Cornell to the remaining five teams will be considered a big upset. That saddles 6 losses on each of Brown, Harvard. Penn, Columbia and Dartmouth.
Incredible, but unless the 5 teams can upset the 3 better squads, there are already must-win contests. If a bottom five team does pull off an upset of Princeton, Yale or Cornell, that team is in great position for the tournament.
It appears that there is enough quality in those five teams to suggest that none of them will win out against the others, and probably none will go 7-1 against their brethren. The return of injured players will boost Penn, Columbia and Harvard, maybe Dartmouth as well.
So, I believe that 6-8 will be the record of the final squad to reach the tournament. That is why Harvard’s victory yesterday at Penn was crucial for the Crimson. Looking forward, Penn must win the rematch at Harvard and Harvard must win the second contest at Brown.
Assuming this is a bifurcated league, other observations:
- Although 0-3, 2 of Columbia’s losses were vs Princeton & Yale and now Columbia is healthier;
- Brown has lost its two home games vs Cornell and Yale;
- Harvard’s loss at home against Brown (by 2 after an abysmal first half) is painful;
- Penn’s loss at home against Harvard, (due to a poor first half and without Slachert) isn’t ideal.
- Columbia is good
- even though Dartmouth can be competitive, any loss to the Big Green will be problematic - and the Big Green will win some games.
Of the 5 teams fighting for 4th, Penn - with the return of Slachert - has the most potential in my mind. However, it sounds like Penn will have to play at each of Columbia, Brown and Yale without him. Losses in those 3 games, followed by a contest at Princeton, could make even 6-8 a reach for Penn. A loss at either Columbia or Brown makes things difficult as well as that would be a second loss within the trailing five.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-21-24 01:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts: 338
Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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01-21-24 10:16 PM - Post#361986
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Rubio De La Rosa could be the difference. Tigers very fortunate he did not put himself on the floor for 13 minutes. Columbia will cause problems going forward. If 6-8 can do it Columbia has a shot.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-22-24 10:45 AM - Post#362002
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
For now, single games take on more importance maybe than they should. The home losses for Harvard and Penn really hurt. Harvard at least mitigated it with a big road win. So Brown seems best situated, and Penn worst. Obviously can change fast. Absent the win at Harvard, Brown looks like a 7th place team based on performance thus far. So a big question is whether the win at Harvard shows they figured something out, or it is just the result of a great first half.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-22-24 10:56 AM - Post#362003
In response to SomeGuy
Penn's situation right now reminded me of mrjames' #ZOMBIEQUAKERS from the 2016-17 season. We even have a scary-looking top-60 Princeton team.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2698
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-22-24 01:09 PM - Post#362006
In response to iogyhufi
Totally agree with the above, and to reinforce:
- Penn gets Slachert back and the second half of its schedule features 5 of 7 games at the Palestra.
- Columbia is very strong with De La Rosa (and won 8 of 9 at one OOC stretch)
- Brown has a key road victory (@Harvard) and played Cornell tough at home.
- Harvard is now 6-1 with both Mack and Ajogbor healthy, plays next 4 games at Lavietes
- Dartmouth will win game(s).
This is going to be a scrum for multiple teams that have no chance of winning the regular season title.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32877
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-22-24 02:26 PM - Post#362012
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Will Dartmouth win games? I'm not certain of that.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2698
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-22-24 02:46 PM - Post#362016
In response to palestra38
The C's and then the P's each have to 'weather' the traditional back to back trips to Hanover. That provides some hope.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-25-24 03:05 PM - Post#362104
In response to iogyhufi
Penn's situation right now reminded me of mrjames' #ZOMBIEQUAKERS from the 2016-17 season. We even have a scary-looking top-60 Princeton team.
Those were the days!!!
Hope everyone here is doing great!
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4919
Reg: 02-04-06
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-25-24 04:53 PM - Post#362106
In response to mrjames
Hope all is well with you, too!
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