PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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01-19-24 10:20 PM - Post#361832
Been anticipating this game all week. Griffith and her staff have probably been preparing much longer than that. Should be an epic battle. Except for last year’s Lion win at Jadwin, Princeton has dominated Columbia from start to finish in Hsu’s career.
Key to victory for the Lions will be their offensive efficiency. If the Tiger defense creates a lot turnovers and bad shots, it will be a long night for the Lions.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-19-24 10:53 PM - Post#361833
In response to PeteD
Should be an exciting game - Princeton is favored by 5 to 15
Her Hoops Stats: Princeton (66.2%) 67.4 - 62.7 +4.7
Massey: Princeton (68%) 70 - 63 +7
Realtime RPI: Princeton 76 - 61 +15
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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01-19-24 11:22 PM - Post#361834
In response to JDP
Yes, but what’s the JDP line?
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-20-24 05:35 AM - Post#361839
In response to PeteD
Princeton -9.5
This is not a knock on Columbia – USC lost by 20 last night at Utah – both elite teams, but home court is worth 7 in many models.
Tigers usually find a way to win at home. If Columbia can play at an up tempo pace, get and hit their 3s at a typical rate, does Princeton have enough perimeter offense to keep pace? The Tigers are very good preventing the former, so as not to have to answer the latter.
To be clear, both teams are very good – For me (and the stats bear this out) the 22-23 versions for both are slightly better than the 23-24, as the former were more experienced and the later are integrating emerging talent. This is a very subtle view as combined they are 25-7 and both have been prohibitive favorites in at least 20 of those games.
For both, their best win has been Villanova – their worst losses are about the same – Stone Brook vs. Rhode Island. Between these bookends Princeton has not lost – Columbia has lost to Florida close and Georgia.
A lot will depend on which teams show up: If the game is the Lions team that almost beat Duke vs. the Tiger team that only beat Le Moyne by 11, Columbia is likely to win. If Princeton plays like the statement win at Harvard 72-49, the Tigers will cover.
Stepping back, tomorrow is really irrelevant for both team’s NCAA goals. Not sure either gets an at large. Unlikely they will be either the 2-3 or 1-4 opening round game of Ivy Madness. Both will be WBIT eligible. Columbia will have home court advantage for Ivy Madness (did you get your tickets yet?)
The stats for both teams are exceeding good – it will be the 32nd Columbia scoring offense (77.3 ppg) vs/ the 37th Princeton defense (57.7 ppg) – last year it was the 14th offense vs the 5th defense. From the other perspective it’s the 124th Princeton scoring offense (68.3 ppg) vs. The 155th defense (64.1 ppg)
I tend to believe very good defense & adequate offense will win more than very good offense & adequate defense – this will be a good test - and to be honest, after reviewing the stats I was surprised to see Princeton in the bottom 10% in the country in some key offensive metrics, so I moved the line from -13.5 to -9.5:
Tigers’ Opponents 2-Point % is 40.4% - 33rd – but Columbia is 53.1% for 2-Point % - 26th
Princeton’ opponent 3-Point % defense is 36.8%, 347th out of 360 – Can the Lions exploit this with their 35.2% Three point rate (53rd) vs. the Tiger who allow a 26.1% three point rate (79th) – those who live by the 3 …
Both teams rebound well on O & D – Columbia is slightly a bit better, do they get a couple more second chance points, transition baskets than what Princeton typically allows?
Offensively Princeton is a bit of an enigma: The Tigers are 332nd in Poss/40 Min at 66.6 – 13.7% of Point from FT (340th), 62.6% Points from 2 (334th) and 23.6% Points from 3 (266th).
A weakness for Columbia is fouls: they are is 250th in Fouls/Game 18.2 … But the Tigers’ FT rate is 12.3% - 352nd and against Harvard who commits similar # of fouls to the Lions (18.4 fouls per game), Princeton went to the line 12 times.
In a 67 possession game, Columbia likely has a 6-7 point advantage from 3 …and 1-2 point advantage from the FT line over Princeton – that’s a lot of extra 2pts for Tigers if the defense can’t stop the Lion’s perimeter game. But for many years, Princeton's defense has risen to this very challenge - especially at home.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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01-20-24 11:17 AM - Post#361843
In response to JDP
I saw two other lines, for 4 and 6 pts respectively.
But Princeton doesn't defend well against threes. If Hsu, Collins, or Weiss goes off, we could have a much tighter ballgame.
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IvyBballFan
Masters Student
Posts: 479
Age: 77
Loc: Central Florida
Reg: 11-19-09
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01-20-24 12:49 PM - Post#361845
In response to cc66
ESPNNews at 4PM EST.
Great to have a national audience for a showcase game like this!
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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01-20-24 05:52 PM - Post#361885
In response to IvyBballFan
37-33 lions at the half.
Down by 5, we went on a run, and the crowd in Jadwin got shocked/quiet.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2974
Reg: 03-02-08
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01-20-24 07:22 PM - Post#361894
In response to cc66
We were smoked in the second half—clearly outplayed. Ironic that MBB played better against Princeton today than WBB. I would not start Fliss-not enough offense. Time to start Weiss.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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01-20-24 07:32 PM - Post#361902
In response to Chet Forte
Yes, Mitchell and St. Rose were just too much in the second half, and we were outscored 47-28.
But you're right--Weiss has diversified her game so she's not just standing around waiting to shoot 3 pters. She scores 12, and with steady improvement and 10 games to go in the IL, puts herself in the running for ROY.
Can we beat Princeton at home in 5 weeks? It's going to be tough to do so....
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2974
Reg: 03-02-08
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01-20-24 07:39 PM - Post#361904
In response to cc66
We were smoked in the second half—clearly outplayed. Ironic that MBB played better against Princeton today than WBB. I would not start Fliss-not enough offense. Time to start Weiss.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2974
Reg: 03-02-08
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01-20-24 07:40 PM - Post#361905
In response to Chet Forte
Pardon the repetition. My mistake.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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01-20-24 08:06 PM - Post#361912
In response to Chet Forte
Even with Chen in foul trouble the entire game, the Tigers were able to get a ton of efficient production from Belker, St Rose, and Mitchell. All three were fantastic, including Belker’s defense on Hsu. Mitchell completely controlled the boards and helped the Tigers in two key ways… kept the Lions from getting 2nd chance points and from getting easy baskets in the paint.
Silver lining is that the Lions played toe to toe with Princeton for 32+ minutes, and they’ll have home court on March 16 for all the marbles if these two meet again in the finals.
I can understand the desire to start Weiss, but she’s not a very good defensive player (putting it nicely)… opponents can get by her with ease. Fliss got stifled by Mitchell today, but she’s an excellent passer and rebounder… doubt we’ll see her out of the starting lineup anytime soon. My gripe about her is that she dribbles too much on occasion and is prone to turnovers.
Maybe Blau Tor isn’t quite ready, but wish Griffith would give her more of an opportunity because it’s clear that one of Columbia’s weaknesses is their defense in the paint. I think Tor has the size and foot quickness to help in that regard.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-14-06
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01-20-24 08:22 PM - Post#361915
In response to Chet Forte
I agree that Riley Weiss is a much better option than Fliss Henderson at this time. However, the bigger problem is Columbia's lack of height in the paint. Perri Page at 5'11" just does not match up well with the bigger and more physical 6'1" Ellie Mitchell. Our MBB team has a similar problem, namely the guards are terrific, but the team's only offensive threat in the paint is the very talented, but undersized Josh Odunowo.
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