CU.LIONS
Senior
Posts: 398
Reg: 03-03-07
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03-08-09 05:22 PM - Post#60648
Now that the season is over and we have seen what Columbia is capable of, barring injuries, Will next year finally be the year?????
I say YES...
GO LIONS !!!!!
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The Lion King
Junior
Posts: 257
Reg: 11-10-06
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03-08-09 06:01 PM - Post#60651
In response to CU.LIONS
I hate to be negative, but: No.
With Grimes and Craig, as well as players healed from injuries, they will certainly improve, but I don't see how they'll be better than Cornell. Of the other teams, Penn and Princeton can be expected to improve next year, Penn because next year's team will be more in tune with the coach and Princeton because they're not graduating much.
I also think Harvard will improve, though they could just as easily go the other way; they were definitely a split-personality team this season. And Brown should improve (they had a good final weekend, and anyway they couldn't get much lower). The only teams likely to be worse next year, in my reckoning, are Dartmouth and Yale.
So I expect Columbia to have a better record in a better league next year, but I really can't see them winning the title.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2180
Reg: 02-14-06
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03-08-09 10:07 PM - Post#60664
In response to The Lion King
Unless Coach Jones successfully recruits a couple of impact players in the next month, I don't see how anyone can reasonably expect the Lions to compete for the Ivy League Championship next season. There are too many unknowns. Will Foley recover from his foot injury and remain healthy the whole season? Will Ampim recover from his foot injury and remain healthy the whole season? Will Grimes, Scott and Staab return from their injuries. How good a player is Max Craig (hopefully very good)? Will Johnson, Crockett and Maase be ready for prime time. Cornell has a huge amount of returning talent and a number of very promising recruits including two transfers. Harvard has its second big time recruiting class and Princeton has an outstanding group coming in next year. Dartmouth has another group of promising recruits from Texas. Penn will be much better. Only Yale and Brown are question marks. Incidentally, I recognize that it is very late in the year from a recruiting standpoint. However, late recruting has been Coach Jones' style the last three seasons and the good news is that there seems to be a number of strong, uncommitted Ivy League prospects still out there in New Jersey and the rest of the USA. Please remember that Coach Jones needs to get another 3-5 players in light of all the injuries and probable attrition.
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CUJacob
Senior
Posts: 353
Reg: 12-05-04
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03-08-09 10:32 PM - Post#60665
In response to Columbia 37P6
On paper, Cornell should be significantly improved-- Mark Coury should get the Brian Kreefer minutes and be an upgrade, particularly on defense and on the glass. Max Groebe will get some of the Adam Gore/Geoff Reeves/Chris Wroblewski minutes and is potentially an upgrade over what Cornell got out of those guys this year.
Columbia should be improved, but I'd be very surprised if the Lions finish within 2 games of Cornell.
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CUJacob
Senior
Posts: 353
Reg: 12-05-04
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03-09-09 12:35 AM - Post#60671
In response to CUJacob
I made a stronger statement than I intended to, or should have. I should have said "I'll be very surprised if Columbia finishes closer than 2 games behind Cornell."
It would not shock me if, for instance, Cornell went 11-3 and Columbia 9-5. I think Cornell is going to be 12-2 or 13-1 though.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3998
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-09-09 10:10 AM - Post#60681
In response to CUJacob
Cornell will be better, Penn and Brown much better. I don't see 9-5 for the Lions.
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Dr. V
PhD Student
Posts: 1539
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 11:37 AM - Post#60688
In response to Old Bear
Only thing that would really surprise is if Cornell didn't win, given that Foote, Wittman and Dale are returning. Nothing else would shock. Injuries aside, and that's obviously a huge aside that can turn everything upside down, could the Lions be better than this year? Yes. By far the most impressive characteristic about the Lions this year was their collective mental and physical toughness and intensity. If they can maintain that next year, and I believe they should be able to given that the players who bring that toughness are all coming back (e.g., Bulger, Agho, Scott, Ampim), they can be better if they can shoot better, and that's a big if in that we're not a good shooting team and our best shooter, KJ, is graduating. Shooting, unlike other features of a player's game, can be improved through work, by correcting various problems of form and just by shooting hours and hours. If our players can do that, we can be formidable. If not, not.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 12:15 PM - Post#60690
In response to The Lion King
I also think Harvard will improve, though they could just as easily go the other way
Potential injuries aside, it's hard to imagine Harvard getting worse. The schedule will dictate next season's W's and L's, but if next year's team got to play this year's schedule again, there's no reason to believe they couldn't win 20 games...
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The Cornell Basketball Blog
Freshman
Posts: 97
Reg: 12-17-08
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03-09-09 12:57 PM - Post#60693
In response to mrjames
I also think Harvard will improve, though they could just as easily go the other way
Potential injuries aside, it's hard to imagine Harvard getting worse. The schedule will dictate next season's W's and L's, but if next year's team got to play this year's schedule again, there's no reason to believe they couldn't win 20 games...
I'd disagree. Losses of Housman, Harris and Pusar are going to hurt more than you think.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 01:43 PM - Post#60696
In response to The Cornell Basketball Blog
This is the wrong board to have this argument on, but are you serious?
Housman will be missed tremendously. He leads the Ivy League in Offensive Rating (I know, I was surprised too...), he gets to the line on offense and distributes the ball, and keeps his hands to himself on D while racking up tons of steals. Over the past three weeks, he's done enough to make him the second most irreplaceable senior in the Ivies (and he'd be tops if "folding the program" wasn't one of Dartmouth's top post-Barnett plans).
McNally will be an okay replacement for Housman. He has a good handle and his offensive efficiency numbers are far ahead of Housman's as a frosh. That being said, Housman didn't make his jump to becoming a true star point guard until this season (he may have scored a lot more as a soph, but his efficiency numbers were terrible - he took a ton of shots to get his points and was a turnover waiting to happen). There is certainly a production gap between what Housman provided this year and what McNally can be reasonably expected to provide next year.
As for Pusar and Harris: While both players certainly have had their moments in Harvard uniforms, this year was hardly either of their finest years. Harris provided a boost down the stretch to a threadbare frontcourt, and Pusar provided reliable interior grit and miraculous, among-the-trees layups. But neither did anything that one would label remotely irreplaceable.
At the end of the day, the question is quite simple: Would you trade Housman, Harris and Pusar for Magnarelli, Van Nest, Miller, Curry, Giger, Georgatos, Webster and Casey? If you're answer to that is a clear yes, like it is for me, then you gotta think that this team is going to get dramatically better...
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Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 02:18 PM - Post#60699
In response to mrjames
Here's the problem with the Columbia rising to the top argument:
1. The Lions are currently 288 in the RPI. Assuming Cornell just stays where it is, the Lions would have to rise 170 or so spots to be in their league.
2. They compiled their 12-16, 7-7 record against the 319th toughest schedule in D1. In order to be considered in the same breath as the team at the top of the League, the Lions probably would have had to have gone 24-4 against that schedule.
3. They lose their top inside player and top 3-point shooter.
4. While they have potential quality players in a healthy Grimes, transfer Craig and a healthier Ampim and Foley, none of them is projected to be first team all-Ivy next year.
5. The Lions finished the season losing to a down Penn team - at home - after Penn got crushed at Cornell the night before - on a night in which two of Penn's top three scorers (Bernardini hurt, and Gaines missing shots) combined for one point.
Of course starnger things have happened - Harvard beat Boston College - but a Lion title next year seems highly unlikely.
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internetter
Postdoc
Posts: 3400
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 03:34 PM - Post#60708
In response to Howard Gensler
Are there any projections for next year's all-Ivy?
The pre-season poll at the top of this board has the Lions finishing 6th. They can finish no lower than tied for 4th and could be for third, depending on P@P.
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Pete Smith
Senior
Posts: 314
Reg: 11-24-04
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03-09-09 04:00 PM - Post#60710
In response to Old Bear
Old Bear,
I just don't see your Bruins being a whole lot better next year. The only good part of an analysis of your roster is you don't really lose much.
I would much rather be Harvard - with admittedly a real key loss in Housman - but a LOT of strong newcomers.
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Pete Smith
Senior
Posts: 314
Reg: 11-24-04
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03-09-09 04:04 PM - Post#60712
In response to mrjames
mrjames
You have to learn not to let BRF raise your blood pressure. Seeing who he can offend must be one of his rare pleasures in life.
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Penn94
PhD Student
Posts: 1461
Loc: Dallas, Texas
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 04:05 PM - Post#60713
In response to internetter
The pre-season poll at the top of this board has the Lions finishing 6th. They can finish no lower than tied for 4th and could be for third, depending on P@P.
Regardless of the P/P game, there will only be two games that separate 2nd place from 7th. So your "no lower than tied for 4th and could be third" could also be written as "one game out of tied for 7th". Big deal. Don't know what point you are trying to make about pre-season polls. The league was horrificlly bad this year. The only thing that the standings tell you aside from Cornell winning is that every league game has to end with a winner.
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Pete Smith
Senior
Posts: 314
Reg: 11-24-04
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03-09-09 04:14 PM - Post#60716
In response to Penn94
I think a lot of people have been overly harsh on the quality of the league this year.
Outside of Brown, which unquestionably lost a lot from last year (and went 3-11 versus 'hopeful memory' 9-5?), everyone else was about the same or maybe a little better. And before you get apoplectic about Penn being historically terrible, I think - and I believe the stats would bear this out - they are 'about the same' as last year.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 05:05 PM - Post#60722
In response to Pete Smith
And before you get apoplectic about Penn being historically terrible, I think - and I believe the stats would bear this out - they are 'about the same' as last year.
Slightly better on offense, much better on defense according to Pomeroy...
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Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-09 05:59 PM - Post#60726
In response to internetter
Are there any projections for next year's all-Ivy?
Yeah. I'll take Dale, Wittman, Foote, Lin and Mullery and give you the field and, barring injury, we'll see who gets more players on the first team.
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The Lion King
Junior
Posts: 257
Reg: 11-10-06
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03-09-09 07:58 PM - Post#60734
In response to Howard Gensler
Who are all these guys? And where have they been all season?
This debate has gone on too long already, so I'll just say that (1) this year's Ivy League had one team a lot better than Columbia, one team a lot worse, and five teams roughly equal, and (2) the Lions' fate next year depends in large part on two players who are talented and experienced but have not yet played a minute for the Lions.
To me, that's enough uncertainty that they could easily finish anywhere from second through seventh. I've seen what Foley can do, so I'm inclined to put them near the top of that range, but as I say, this year's teams are so closely bunched that any predictions basically amount to guesswork.
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skiba34
Masters Student
Posts: 952
Reg: 03-11-06
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03-09-09 10:29 PM - Post#60743
In response to Howard Gensler
Here's the problem with the Columbia rising to the top argument:
1. The Lions are currently 288 in the RPI. Assuming Cornell just stays where it is, the Lions would have to rise 170 or so spots to be in their league.
2. They compiled their 12-16, 7-7 record against the 319th toughest schedule in D1. In order to be considered in the same breath as the team at the top of the League, the Lions probably would have had to have gone 24-4 against that schedule.
3. They lose their top inside player and top 3-point shooter.
4. While they have potential quality players in a healthy Grimes, transfer Craig and a healthier Ampim and Foley, none of them is projected to be first team all-Ivy next year.
5. The Lions finished the season losing to a down Penn team - at home - after Penn got crushed at Cornell the night before - on a night in which two of Penn's top three scorers (Bernardini hurt, and Gaines missing shots) combined for one point.
Of course starnger things have happened - Harvard beat Boston College - but a Lion title next year seems highly unlikely.
A few replies:
1- Matsui was not the best shooter, Scott was. Matsui wasn't even a starter and certainly not one of the tougher players Columbia has.
2- Losing Miller may not be a loss if reports are accurate on Craig who is substantial bigger than Miller. he is being reported as having strong hands and deceptive athletic ability.
3 - I still say like I did in my other posts, that the injuries suffered by Columbia's key or best players are greater then the others. Combine a hopefully injury free team with transfer Craig gives Columbia the most room for improvement..
4 - You are absolutely right however that Columbia should have in no way lost to Penn and yet it happened.
5 - By no means will I say Columbia will win it all, because they are truly unpredictable. But I agree with the above statements by CU.LIONS that Columbia has some of the toughest guards in Scott, Bulger and Agho defensively. If that guard tandem can get better help upfront (Grimes, Ampim, Craig) they may very well surprise. The toughness and chemistry displayed this season is reason to be hopeful more than any year in recent memory.
When it is all said and done, Cornell should be the team again, but stranger things have happened.
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